This evening The Ashes start to burn again. I have Australia as heavy favourites.
We all had them as heavy favourites last time around, last summer, after game one when McGrath ruined England in the space of hardly more than a few minutes. And if McGrath had not trodden on a ball just before game two, we would have all been right. Having been the Aussie match winner in game one, he was never the same bowler for the rest of the series.
Since then, on the bowling front, England have lost the excellent and under-rated Simon Jones, and for Australia McGrath is now fit again. Gillespie, the weak spot in the Aussie bowling in 2005, has been replaced. For England, is Saj Mahmoud good enough, or will the Australians rip him apart as he has already been ripped apart in one-day cricket? They are just the ones to do it. Ditto Monty Panesar.
On the batting front, England have lost Vaughan and now Trescothick. Meanwhile Australia, who batted poorly in England, look likely to bat batter. Katich is now gone, and Hussey will surely strengthen them. Hayden, Langer and Gilchrist did badly in England and will surely improve, and if they do not, Jacques is ready in the wings.
Australia have surely lost any thought that to win they only have to show up, and all in all, I think, as I thought before the 2005 series only more so, that England have a chance, but only a chance, and this time around only an outside chance. When you consider that, despite doing better than Australia for long periods in 2005, England only just managed to squeak to their two wins (England were one dodgy caught behind from being 2-0 down), having been heavily defeated in game one (by McGrath – see above), it will not take much to change the 2005 result.
England might still win, or draw and keep the Ashes, if Harmison and Pietersen both play out of their skins, and if Flintoff is his usual excellent self despite also being the captain, and if Panesar does well, and Bell, and Strauss, and blah blah blah if if if, and if Australia again underperform (perhaps through more bowling injuries), all of which might still happen. But there are far two many ifs for my liking. But I hope I am wrong and I live in hope.
I am obviously praying that you are wrong Brian, but the omens are not very good. Flintoff, Piedersen, Cook, Harmison, Hoggard, Strauss etc are good players, but we lack perhaps the killer ap. of the last series: Simon Jones. We also do not have the astute leadership of Vaughan, and although Flintoff is a terrific guy, is not what I regard as quite right in the captain’s role.
The Aussies will not be as cocky and arrogant as they were last time. Ponting is lucky to be in the job at all as skipper, although he is a good bat. And players like Brett Lee, who is a fine sportsman, and Warne, who is simply a genius, will not want to lose this one.
And McGrath is back. If he avoids injury and bowls with the surgeon-like precision of his finest days, England will struggle, particularly against the early ball.
Looks like my sleep patterns are buggered for the next few weeks. Let battle commence.
The one prediction I will make with confidence is that Shane Warne will bowl like, well, Shane Warne. (Note to Americans: Australian spin bowler Shane Warne is to cricket what Babe Ruth was to baseball or Michael Jordan to Basketball. At least, he is on the field. Off the field he manages to get into all kinds of bizarre scandals, but that is another story. He is one of those players you watch, and then shake your head, stunned by having just watched him do the impossible). The thing that amazes me about the last series is that he played as well as he did, and Australia still lost. They would have won had McGrath not trodden on the ball before the second test, but I don’t blame that for the Australian loss. Australia still would have won had Warned bowled the way he did and the batsmen scored a few runs. I do blame is the batsmen, who failed when it counted. And they failed when it counted because of a combination of being too cocky, and the English having studied how they played and learned to exploit their weaknesses. I think the person responsible for this was England captain Michael Vaughan.
Vaughan is out of this series, which is a shame as he is an outstanding captain, a fine batsmen, and a gentleman. His absence is why in the end I favour Australia, too. But I am really taking nothing for granted this time.
Many Aussie fans are arrogant – this much is true. They’re not nearly as bad as English fans, however. You Poms are drunk on your recent sporting successes. Try keeping the winning run up for more than a year or two, then I might be impressed by your bravado. Admittedly, the Barmy Army has some marvellous chants. I particularly enjoyed “Get your poxy stars off our flag”.
I’ve digressed. The Australian team is not nearly as cocky and arrogant as its reputation would suggest. Look at Gilchrist – the very model of humility.
As the Aussies will no doubt soon be handing out some serious stick, I thought I’d get my retaliation in first:
Q. What’s the difference between Australia and a yoghurt?
A. If you leave a yoghurt for long enough, it will develop a culture?
With the exception of the 2005 Ashes victory, what successes are you thinking of, James, because I cannot recall any. Our football team is full of underperforming, overpaid twerps, our rugby team is a shadow of its World Cup winning former self.
Ah yes. The famed British sense of humour.
“Ah yes. The famed British sense of humour.”
Yeah, it’s almost as good as the Aussie one that thinks
calling Monty Panesar a “stupid Indian” is funny, or that sledging and refusing to walk is “part of the game” rather than flagrant and petty cheating.
Johnathan – you shouldn’t have to ask because you mentioned it yourself – the rugby world cup win. It might surprise genteel Englishmen like yourself, but many of your countrymen are insufferably smug and ugly in victory – in the exact manner the average English pundit tends to attribute to Australian fans. Fact is, Australian sporting teams win more, so the English fans of all stripes cop it more. Unpalatable truth, but isn’t that true? And if the reverse were the case, we’d be singing from your songbook.
Michael – heh.
Niall – the most infamous “walker” in the modern game is an Australian.
In the last Rugby World Cup the English media went on and on and on about supposed bad sportsmanship on the part of the Australian players / public whatever, and in reality this was almost entirely nonexistent. The supposed examples of this that were reported in England came entirely from one Sydney tabloid, and compared to (say) what one reads in the Sun when England plays Germany at soccer, this tabloid was really incredibly mild. The complaints about the bad sportsmanship in the English press were far worse than any actual bad sportsmanship. As far as I could tell, Australian bad sportsmanship was necessary for the English media to properly enjoy the English victory, and as it wasn’t present in reality they then made it up. In Sydney the mood was extremely good due to the fact that the event was so successful. Australians were more focused on the All Blacks than on England (because we thought we would lose to them in the semi-finals), and then when we lost to England in an incredibly close final, the feelings were mild disappointment at getting so close and then failing, pleasure at having done better than expected, and then well played England.
The feelings at losing the Ashes were a lot more than mild disappointment (we were disconsolate) but there weren’t any shortage of compliments paid to the English team by Australians at the end of the series, and there were plenty from me personally.
I can remember sitting in the pub before the start of the last ashes, and remember England were unbackable. A mate and I went through the Aussie squad position by position, and you had this simply amazing array of talent. World’s best ever spinner, best quick, best allround keeper of the modern era, some very very handy batsmen, good attacking skipper and so on. And yes, from 12,000 miles away, the Aussies did look flat and unconvincing at times with the bat. Yes, McGrath was a huge loss. Full credit to the Poms for rising to the occasion in a manner that surprised a lot of observers, and they made a great and arresting contest out of what looked, after game one like being a long and boring series. Suffer English supportes at home, like we did last time, sitting up all night then dragging ourselves off to work bleary eyed and grumpy.
The last ashes test was just great for cricket worldwide, and was a wakeup call for the Aussie selectors.
Australia has had much less match action leading up to this series, and it is no longer just another series of more or less going through the motions.
I think the challenge for England will be to bat consistently on a range of wickets, play aggresively in the field and not make unforced errors. If they can do that every day of every game, they will have a change of putting Australia under pressure, which often is our undoing.
I just cant wait!
Oh, and yes, I think the Poms will get flogged embarrasingly 🙂
James, you have a thin skin, it seems. Yes, it is true that the English savoured the Rugby World Cup win of 2003 (which already seems a loooong time ago), but it made up for a long period of being in the shadow of Australian sports prowess. Sport is a total religion down under, and we usually get the Aussie sports superiority rammed down our throats. So forgive us a spot of enjoyment when we send the Ockers packing. It does not happen very often.
Anyway, I have to say that I was greatly impressed by the sportsmanship of the Aussie cricket team in 2005, particularly the likes of Brett Lee. Warne is a bit of cult hero in England. There may be the usual niggles during the series, but the behaviour tends to be far more grown up than among footballers. As Michael Jennings has told me many times, the behaviour of soccer players the world over is not that of sportsmen. In fact, women’s soccer is more “manly” in the best sense of that word.
The score in the cricket match would seem to indicate that Brian is going to be proved correct.
As for Australia generally. Well I have never been there – so I must judge by facts and by the impressions of those who have been there.
Such an examination shows that Australia has many problems, but that these problems (with the exception of the heat and lack of rain) are all worse in Britain.
Our taxes are higher, are government spending is much higher and we are more regulated.
One must also consider the cost of living. Australians complain about housing costs that are tiny compared to ours. And Australians do not have to look with total horror at the cost of travelling 70 miles (as I did yesterday and today). Food and clothing are also absurdly expensive here.
As for the behaviour of the population. Well Britain can no longer lecture other nations about being polite or clean living. The modern “Brit” is rude, unfit, at least semicriminal, and likely to be using various silly drugs.
Australians complain about housing costs that are tiny compared to ours.
To rent, housing is indeed cheaper in Australia. On the other hand, in terms of affordability (ie ratios between incomes and prices) Sydney is actually much more expensive than London. Londoners don’t ever believe me when I tell them this, but it is true.
This would indicate that there is a credit-money bubble in Australia – bad news at some point.
Whilst I had heard that real estate prices were high in Sydney, I must confess that I did not know that they were this high.
Perphaps this is because most of the Australians I know are Queenslanders.
This would indicate that there is a credit-money bubble in Australia – bad news at some point.
Yes, and yes.