We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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It must have been about a decade ago that I first became aware of the alleged dangers of exposure to the sun and the ‘link’ between over-exposure to ultra-violet radiation and skin cancer*. Looking back, it was a ‘consciousness raising exercise’ that mushroomed from ‘never heard of it’ to widespread health-panic with remarkable speed.
Assisted, perhaps, by the miserabalisit anti-hedonism of the Nineties and the suspiciously convenient dovetailing with the doleful predictions about ‘global warming’, we should have been more sceptical. But medical opinion was converted and few people have the confidence to fly in the face of such an august edifice. The new orthodoxy was nailed down with copious amounts of ‘official’ advice to stay in, wrap up, cover up and, if you are foolhardy enough to venture out in the sun, only do so after smothering yourself with gallons of sunblock.
But that was then, and this is now:
A scientist is claiming too much sunscreen can lead to vitamin deficiency.
Professor Michael Holick of Boston University is advising people to spend up to 10 minutes a day in the sun unprotected to guard against a lack of vitamin D.
He said: “In our efforts to protect people from the sun we’ve thrown the baby out with the bathwater.”
So Professor Holick just a publicity-seeking iconoclast or is this the heretical opening shot of a debunking campaign?
Perhaps the only danger we really need to worry about are the risks arising from an over-exposure to ‘experts’.
[Note to professional scare-mongers: ‘cancer’ is the panic word of our age. Linking lifestyle choices to heart disease or kidney failure just doesn’t cut the mustard.]
I was probably one of the first in Europe to hear about the US blackout. I’ve customers in Manhattan. One of them rang me in Belfast as soon as she determined not only her Upper West flat, but also her Chinatown server rack were both affected. She has a big UPS but no backup generator. It just isn’t feasible for a facility her size. I advised an immediate controlled shutdown.
It seems government officials were announcing “this wasn’t a terrorist incident” almost before people like my customer completed their emergency procedures. I found and still find this strange. It may well be true. It probably is true, but the haste to discount the possibility was unseemly.
Terrorism and sabotage are not necessarily spectacular events. It doesn’t take a bombing or an armed attack to bring down a power grid. In 1964 the East Coast power grid came down all by itself. It was due to a cascade of protective shutdowns after a “First Cause” failure. That may be the case this week as well, but we don’t know yet. A sudden reversal of power flow on the Lake Erie power loop occurred instants before the cascading failures began. That is sufficient information to tell us absolutely nothing.
Thus unarmed with facts, I will now sally forth into the vacuum of hard data and suggest some attack scenarios.
The Saboteur. Someone with appropriate knowledge may have penetrated a targeted power facility and simply thrown a few switches. A “mole” at a power station would be best, but power stations are not Fort Knoxen. A trained agent could probably get in and out of some “weakest link” facility somewhere without being detected.
Does anyone remember the incident of November 11, 2001 (see Charleston Daily Mail, “Guard Chases Men Near Power Plant”) during which a security guard slugged a person attempting to enter power plant grounds from the river?
The Hack. Someone could have cracked a power company control system and “adjusted” a few things. I once authored software systems for control of large building complexes. Most such systems have queues of time based actions. If an attacker penetrated several systems, they could insert minor events synchronized to milliseconds. Even the actual queue insertions could be handled by stealthy, pre-positioned “Trojan Horse” programs. An innocuous looking message could trigger the countdown sequence. The trigger could be sent from anywhere on the planet. Perhaps the Microsoft worm was a diversion.
Each event on it’s own would be insignificant, but the sum of all could be a big problem.
A trail might be left, but it would be difficult to uncover if there was a dispersed attack. If only one site were involved it would be much easier to find evidence both because the source of the First Cause would be pin-pointed and because the event itself would be out of the ordinary.
If the attackers were moderately good they would leave a trail only discoverable by computer forensics. The critical computer log entries would be gone unless printed on paper as they occured… or if they were intended to be found.
These scenarios are an intellectual exercise. Taking down a power grid is an annoyance but doesn’t accomplish anything in and of itself. There has been no “other” event connected to it. No claims of holding American infrastructure under threat. No major attack during the early blackout confusion. No operational movements and pre-setting of people or material… hmmm.
Just thought I’d keep y’all worryin’ over there!
This constant intervention by government in tasks that belong to the
individual must cease … Day by day the doctrines and practices of a
paternal government are speciously and tentatively expanding over the
country, and the habit of popular thought is unhappily becoming
accustomed to them.
– Senator Thos S. Bayard to Congress, April 1884
(with thanks to David Goldstone)
Kevin Connors talks about a certain British civil servant with a licence to kill, er, drive
Bond purists know that there are only two ‘proper’ cars for 007 to drive, an Aston or a Bentley. But for many years, while the British auto industry decayed, neither Aston or Bentley produced anything James would be caught dead in (book readers might recall Gardner gave him a Mulsanne Turbo in 1984). But over the last decade, the British Car business has been undergoing a renaissance, riding a wave of American and German capital and technology. The fruits of this are really starting to come now. Two years ago, Aston Martin (now owned by Ford) introduced their beautiful V12 Vanquish, seen in last year’s Die Another Day. But still, relative to the breathtaking Ferrari 575M Maranello, it’s only real competition, most automotive commentators declared it an also-ran. (While the comparison is far closer than that of the classic DB5, introduced in Goldfinger, and the 1964 Ferrari 500 Superfast, to say nothing of the incomparable 250GTO. Even the Lamborghini 350GT and Maserati 3500 GT, would likely have cleaned the DB5’s clock.)
Now, all that is behind us. After many teases, Bentley Motor Cars, (now owned by Volkswagen) is finally releasing their latest masterpiece, the Bentley Continental GT:
It has no competition.
This 4 passenger, 5000lb, W-12, AWD monster does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds, the same as a Porsche Carrera. It tops out at 198 mph, faster than all but a handful of 2 seat super-exotics. All this while coddling the passengers in the lap of luxury.
With plenty of room for Q to hide toys, this is a car Commander Bond would love. Of course, the next car 007 actually drives will be determined by the real world consideration of how much the manufacturers are willing to pony up in product placement money. And, although the producers know the fans want to see Bond in a British car (and not a plastic toy Lotus, even if it does go underwater), If Toyota forked over enough, James might be driving the new Supra.
BUT WAIT!
There’s a new player on the scene
I didn’t consider this at first, because of the leading name on the moniker. However, on further consideration, there’s likely more actual British engineering and manufacturing content in this than the Bentley. Ladies and gentleman, coming in about six months, I give you the revolutionary Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren:
As opposed to the Bentley’s porcine two and a half ton mass, carbon composite construction helps keep the SLR to a svelte one and three-quarters. This, along with slightly greater horsepower (580, not 605 as stated on spec. sheet), shave a full second off the Bentley’s 0-60 time. Top speed is 211 mph. A handful of currently available automobiles are in the performance league with the SLR: the Lamborghini Murcielago (also VW, btw), the Pagani Zonda C12-S 7.2, the Ferrari Enzo, and the Saleen S7. But all these are, to one degree or another, racing cars for the street. The SLR promises to be the first super-exotic that’s also a viable daily driver.
Of course, the SLR costs (before Q-izing) two or three times the price of the Bentley. But, to Her Majesty’s Government, it’s just chump change seeing as they have all those taxpayers to call on.
Creepy stuff in Florida:
The Florida Department of Law Enforcement is putting together a computer network that would allow police to analyze government and commercial records on every Florida resident, and the agency is planning to share that information with police in at least a dozen other states.
Critics say the system – known as the Multistate Anti-Terrorist Information Exchange, or MATRIX – is an Orwellian technology that would allow police to assemble electronic dossiers on every Floridian, even those not suspected of crimes.
Here’s all of the story from the Gainsville Sun.
“Everybody makes this out to be more than it is,” said Clay Jester, MATRIX program director for the Institute for Intergovernmental Research, a nonprofit group that is helping FDLE find grant money to fund the system.
“Really, this isn’t very different from doing a Lexis-Nexis search on someone,” he said.
Right.
It’s a day or two late to be passing this on, but here it is anyway:
A government report that urges the U.S. Postal Service to create “smart stamps” to track the identity of people who send mail is eliciting concern from privacy advocates.
The report, released last month by the President’s Commission on the U.S. Postal Service, issued numerous recommendations aimed at reforming the debt-laden agency. One recommendation is that the USPS “aggressively pursue” the development of a so-called intelligent mail system.
Though details remain sketchy, an intelligent mail system would involve using barcodes or special stamps, identifying, at a minimum, the sender, the destination and the class of mail. USPS already offers mail-tracking services to corporate customers. The report proposes a broad expansion of the concept to all mail for national security purposes. It also suggests USPS work with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to develop the system.
If you want to. read the whole thing.
The DOD announced a site for a new US missile defense system today: Adak Island.
This is exactly where I expected the first 21st century land-based ABM system would go. It is the most likely of two well placed islands in the Aleutians Chain extending south and west from Alaska. Adak Island is an old NSA Cold War listening post and has a military airfield.
It also just happens to sit almost exactly on the great circle route on which a North Korean based ICBM must travel to reach American soil. The DOD release doesn’t mention that little tidbit. You’ve heard it first on Samizdata.
I’ve just done a posting on my education blog about an organisation called Connexions Direct, which, together with its website ending in .gov.uk, I’ve just seen advertised on TV. It strikes me as just a tad creepy, at any rate potentially.
Finding someone to talk to.
Connexions Direct Advisers are here to listen to your relationship problems and can also help you to find support in your area. You can contact us via email, text, phone or webchat or pop into your local office. Look in the Connexions Service section for details of where your local office is.
Should an organisation with .gov.uk at the end of its website address be offering relationship advice?
I can see it developing into a sort of database of the unhappy. It of course swears that it won’t abuse all the information it will nevertheless be hoovering up, but then it would, wouldn’t it?
And since doing that posting at my blog, I’ve also noticed this. Guess what? Yes, it’s the Connections Card:
The Connexions Card is a secure smartcard, designed specially for you, which allows you to collect reward points for learning, work-based training and voluntary activities. These can be exchanged for discounted and free goods and services and other rewards, including some exclusive ‘money can’t buy’ experiences. The Card can also be used for on-the-spot discounts and special offers from outlets and business displaying the Connexions Card window sticker.
I’d be interested to hear what anyone else thinks about all this.
Most of us are fortunate enough to live our lives in peaceful obscurity. Not many of us do things that attract attention from more then our circle of friends and family.
There are those though that either through their skill or through opportunity attract unwanted attention. While Brian writes about the attention that Prince William is getting, in Australia, we who make princes of our sportsmen are debating the latest scandal involving cricketer Shane Warne.
Warne is one of the most gifted bowlers in the history of the game, but away from the field he is a rather unsavoury man who has gathered a well earned sleazy reputation.
An enterprising South African woman has tried to cash in on that reputation by making allegations against Warne. It seems that for once there is little truth to the story, and indeed she’s been charged by the South African police with extortion. Whatever the truth of this sordid affair, the media spotlight is once again firmly on Shane Warne. Sometimes that spotlight steps over the boundary of what is acceptable by the media after News Corporation’s flagship newspaper “The Australian” took a photograph of Warne having a smoke in his backyard.
While in general little sympathy need be wasted on Warne, in this case, I feel for him. His response to the affair has been to keep as low a profile as possible, and every person has the right not to be photographed if they don’t want to be.
Governments are notoriously inquisitive about the private matters of their citizens, but they are not the only intrusive Big Brother out there.
After a short hiatus due to snail mail from Basra involving wrong addresses and the usual off-line world confusions I give you the forth letter written by our illustrious ‘Man in Basra’. The following has been written partially as a response to
Virginia Postrel’s latest NY Times column highlights what may become a growing weakness in the regulatory state.
Oscar Wilde defined a cynic as someone who “knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” To many people, that sounds like an economist or an executive.
But Wilde’s witticism ignores what prices do. They convey information about how people value different goods, including the intangibles an aesthete like Wilde would care about most.
. . .
Public policy often regards aesthetic value as illegitimate or nonexistent. This oversight comes less from ideological conviction than from technocratic practice. Unlike prices, regulatory policy requires articulated justifications and objective standards. So policy makers emphasize measurable factors and ignore subjective pleasures.
As the info-industrial economy advances, the regulatory state will look increasingly out of step and, one hopes, irrelevant and undesirable. Regulation is all about conformity, and while top down conformity might appear to be tolerable in a society that is struggling to make ends meet, one hopes that it will become increasingly intolerable as it becomes more of a barrier to the kinds of pleasure-seeking and self-realization that people are willing to go to great lengths to achieve when they have the means to do so. As Ms. Postrel points out, the pricing mechanism of the market lets people pursue these essentially aesthetic ends as far as they want (or can afford), while top-down policy-driven efficiencies all too often preclude these pursuits.
Future debates over the regulatory state may play out as a struggle between the competing values of risk-aversion and efficiency on the one hand, and self-individuation and aesthetics on the other.
To follow up on the discussion under Good news on guns, which drifted (and I do mean drifted) into comparisons of US and European crime and the unfortunate concentration of violent criminal activity in the US in the black community, I ran across a summary of statistics at the Useful Fools blog. You really should read the whole thing, but the relevant points are:
Here are Interpol 2001 crime statistics (rate per 100,000):
4161 – US
7736 – Germany
6941 – France
9927 – England and Wales
Thus the US has a substantially lower crime rate than the major European countries!
. . .
[The US] murder rate is high largely due to the multicultural nature of our society. Inner city blacks, members of a distinct subculture, have a vastly higher criminal and victim homicide rate than our society as an average:
Homicide Offender Rate/100,000 by Race in US (2000):
3.4 – White
25.8 – Black
3.2 – Other
It is often hypothesized that blacks are overrepresented in murder statistics due to racism on the part of police and the justice system. If this were true, one would expect that the race of victims would have significantly different distribution than the race of the perpetrators, but this is not the case:
Homicide Victim Rate/100,000 by Race in US (2000):
3.3 – White
20.5 – Black
2.7 – Other
Thus if you remove homicides committed by blacks (total: 21862, Blacks:9316), and assume a proportionality between number of offenders and number of offenses, you can extrapolate US homicide offender rate of only 2.6/100,000, lower than Germany (3.27) and France (3.91).
I asked John Moore, the author of the Useful Fools post, to give us links to the studies or data that he used, but he replied that he had gathered the numbers from a Interpol and FBI stats without keeping the links. Tsk, tsk, John! I had hoped to track down the data myself, but have been unable to do so, and am unlikely to get a chance anytime soon. The data is consistent with a number of other items that I have read over the years, so I think its legit, but caveat blogster.
The data can be read to support any number of things, as I am sure the comment mob will demonstrate soon. I tend to look at it as consistent with my preconceptions (yet another reason why I think that the data is probably good – it makes me look smart!). First and foremost, though, I think it refutes the notion that “cowboy” America is a violent and dangerous place. It is also consistent with the view that, in America at least, more gun control equals more crime, as the high crime areas (large urban centers) labor for the most part under the very restrictive gun controls (and have for decades).
In short, it is safer to be free and self-reliant (that is, armed) than to trust the state to provide safety and security from crime.
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Who Are We? The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling.
We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
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