We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

Saddam Futures

Tradesports.com runs an over-the-counter derivatives market with contracts covering various events.

Those of you who like a market solution for any problem will be pleased to know it quotes quarterly futures style contracts on the likelihood of Saddam being President of Iraq in December, March and June.

Market prices currently imply that he has an 83 percent chance of being the Mother of all Dictators come Christmas, but only a 48 percent chance of opening Easter Eggs as President and a 37 percent chance of seeing in the second half of the year in power.

Early optimism that Saddam would take an early bath has declined as time has progressed. Being an unregulated market there is of course nothing to stop Dubya doing a bit of insider trading…

Paul Staines

Frogs in the EU pot

Below is the story of the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty. It is as clear a warning to those within the EU reach (grasp, claws etc) about the nature of its objectives and procedures as it gets. Yet it seems that the public, both in the EU and in the Eastern European countries so keen to join, do not register the rising levels of undemocratic behaviour. Just like in the tired old ‘boil a live frog’ myth1. But in this case, not only there is a frog in a pot with hot water, there is another one waiting to jump in as soon as the cooked one shrinks…

First, the Irish Government disregarded last year’s clear referendum result. The Telegraph reported in September:

Mr Ahern has virtually promised his EU counterparts that the Irish will say “Yes”, unlike last time, when they rejected the deal, thus threatening to unravel plans to enlarge the EU in 2004. This is European democracy, Henry Ford style – you can reach any answer, as long as it is yes. In simply refusing to recognise the outcome of the first referendum, the government makes the point of the No campaigners more eloquently than a thousand speeches.

Second, the governement changed the rules and amended the law on the conduct of plebiscites. Ireland used to have admirably fair rules on referendum campaigns, providing for equal airtime on state media and for the distribution to each household of a pamphlet setting out the case for each side. The government scrapped this rule. The way was thus clear for the Yes side to exploit its massive financial advantage. It outspent the anti-treaty campaign by a factor of 10 and played heavily on fears of what Ireland could lose by turning its back on Europe’s ambitions.

Third, the Irish government changed the question. Mr Ahern also rigged the question. Voters were asked to ratify Nice and, in the same vote, to oppose Irish participation in the EU army. Thus, many supporters of neutrality – a natural anti-Nice constituency – felt obliged to vote Yes. Daniel Hannan, a Conservative MEP for South East England explains what has been done to the question:

To see how outrageous this is, imagine that in a British referendum, Tony Blair phrased the question: “Do you want to join the single European currency and preserve the supremacy of the UK Parliament?”

Fourth, the Irish were facing moral blackmail. They were told that if they voted No, they would deprive 70 million people of the benefits they have themselves reaped from EU membership, even if the money has now virtually dried up. The rejection of Nice Treaty for a second time would, apparently, have delayed for at least three years the plans to bring the new members – Hungary, Poland, Latvia and the Czech Republic into the EU. Every big gun from Lech Walesa to St John Hume was wheeled out. Ireland, they all argued, has done well out of Brussels; now let’s give eastern Europe the same opportunity.2

Daniel Hannan again ‘fastidiously’ points out that given the Irish voted for enlargement…

…[it] is something of a surprise, then, to read the Nice Treaty and find that enlargement is barely mentioned: it comes in a codicil tacked on at the end, and could easily have been agreed without a referendum. Nice is about deepening rather than widening the EU.

It provides, among other things, for the scrapping of 39 national vetoes, the harmonisation of justice and home affairs and the establishment of pan-European political parties. The Euro-elites were never going to allow mere public opinion to stop all this. Once again, they have got their way.

…and concludes that:

In order to ratify an essentially undemocratic treaty, Ireland has had to debase its own democratic procedures.

Makes sense to me. In order to cook the frog, you need to increase the temperature…

1 = In the experiment a frog was dropped into a pot of hot (not boiling) water. It immediately jumped out, as would any sensible frog. Then it was placed in a pot of cool water sitting on a stove. This was more to its liking, so it swam about and lounged comfortably. The heat was turned on and raised very gradually. Soon it was hotter than the water in the first experiment, but the frog didn’t jump out. This was because there was no dramatic difference, as there had been when it was taken from room temperature and dropped into hot water. The frog became accustomed to the increased temperature as it was raised little by little. Before long the temperature was so high that the frog was unable to jump out of the pot, and it died.

2= Polish prime minister Leszek Miller, keeping a pledge he made to a local television station, drank a glass of Guinness and sang the popular folk song “I love you, Ireland” when told the Irish had definitely voted Yes.

Some gun law links – and another one please

Britain’s idiot gun laws look like being today’s issue du jour. And at the risk (following on from my enlarging photos fiasco) of making a further fool of myself on a technical issue, it seems (to me) that if you follow a link embedded in a Samizdata comment it works, but the window refuses to get any larger, and the result is tricky to read. That’s what happens with me anyway. No doubt one press of one button will solve the problem, but I have yet to locate the button in question.

So, here, just in case it helps anyone, is the Reason article by Joyce Lee Malcolm linked to by Ralf Goergens in his comment on the sublime David. This Reason piece concludes thus:

The English government has effectively abolished the right of Englishmen, confirmed in their 1689 Bill of Rights, to “have arms for their defence,” insisting upon a monopoly of force it can succeed in imposing only on law-abiding citizens. It has come perilously close to depriving its people of the ability to protect themselves at all, and the result is a more, not less, dangerous society. Despite the English tendency to decry America’s “vigilante values,” English policy makers would do well to consider a return to these crucial common law values, which stood them so well in the past.

And here’s a link to Natalie Solent‘s latest piece on Biased BBC, also regarding guns. Taster paragraph:

Oh, and just skim the whole bunch of stories and look at the headlines: “Terror in US schools and workplaces” – “History of shootings” – “America’s gun culture.” Every mention of the liberty angle has a question mark after it: “Firearms – a civil liberties issue?” – “Right to bear arms?” Don’t hold your breath waiting for headlines like “crime down in gun states”, willya? And don’t wait around for a list of accounts of innocent people saved from murder or rape by guns, although there is a list of accounts of innocent people slain by guns.

Come to think of it, has anyone compiled an internetted list of links to accounts of people saved by gun use, along the lines of that Muslims Condemn Terrorism link page that I flagged up a while ago? If so, another link embedded in another comment please. Do wait around for that, because I bet there is one.

Help the Australian Red Cross

If you wish to help, you can send contributions to the Australian Red Cross Bali Appeal here

Samizdata slogan of the day

Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.
– Adam Smith, 1755

A Guide to Self-Defence in the UK

In response to the increasing public concern at the spiralling rate of violent crime, the Home Office, acting in concert with the Association of Police Chiefs, have prepared this pamphlet containing advice and guidelines that will help you and your family avoid becoming victims of violent crime.

Further, and as a direct result of the high number of complaints from members of the public about slow police response times, we have established the Crime Reaction Emergency Team Initiative Networks (CRETINS), a specially constituted force tasked with providing a swift and effective response to emergency calls from members of the public in danger.

The most important step to take in order to avoid being a victim of crime is to ensure that you live in abject poverty. A number of government studies have proved that most criminals are motivated by the desire to obtain other people’s possessions by force. Whilst having no possessions at all cannot guarantee your safety, the less you have, the less criminals can steal from you.

However, if you have been careless enough to amass material wealth, the following helpful tips listed below may be of some assistance. → Continue reading: A Guide to Self-Defence in the UK

Irish ayes are smiling

And British eyes are crying.

The Irish have voted ‘yes’ in the second referendum on endorsing the Nice Treaty.

Depressing, but predictable given the weight of the government support and the quantity of EU bribe money behind the ‘yes’ campaign.

I don’t suppose a ‘no’ vote would have scuppered the EU or even slowed it down in any material sense, but it would have dented their own sense of inevitability. Seems now that resistance is, indeed, futile.

The bad guys are winning.

Bugger.

A small but enviable world

I went on a random blogwalk, as you do at Sunday lunchtime if you live alone and are still wearing your pyjamas, and came across The Spleenville Journal – A Subsidiary of Spleenville World Domination Enterprises. Aaah, world domination …

First reaction: nice looking, witty, a fine answer to what Michael of the 2Bs was saying about envy and aesthetics, see here, I should tell the 2Bs. Anyway I scroll down, and find this. Everyone has already been introduced, and here’s me introducing them to each other all over again. Imagine.

But, it’s all being done so loudly and pretentiously that all you little people out there can’t possibly miss who we all are.

Pussy stuff?

Michael, one of the Two Blowhards, has a great … well he calls it a “rant”, but all I take that to mean is that it took him only ten minutes to write it. Whatever it is, it’s very good and very true, and is about the inadequacy of envy as the explanation of leftism. Michael offers another:

I’m hoping you can explain to me why so many people on the right, libertarian or conservative, discount the question of attractiveness. Are they puzzled by it? Do they think it’s pussy stuff? Are they even aware of it?

As you and I, arty maniacs, both know, beauty and pleasure play big roles in people’s lives. People — and not just artsy-fartsies — make life decisions based on feelings and tastes. Aesthetic preference is a powerful engine that can affect which neighborhood you choose to live in, how you dress and feed yourself, where you shop and travel, and how you make a living.

Too bad the right refuses to wrestle with the question of aesthetic preference. In doing so, they risk alienating everyone who’s attracted to attractiveness. (And who isn’t?) Seductiveness, glamour, sensuality, entertainment, food: are righties really willing to let the left own all these potent issues and qualities?

I’d humbly suggest that resorting to “envy” as one’s only, or root, explanation for leftie-ism, is itself unattractive. It has its validity, of course. But it’ll never sell.

Michael is kind enough to exclude Natalie Solent and our good selves (“slyness, elegance and perversity”) from these critical generalisations. If they haven’t already the Blowhards should also have a read of the sly, elegant and perverse Alice Bachini.

By the way, thanks again to the 2Bs for making me read Peter Hall’s Cities in Civilization, which I took with me on my recent holiday that I promised not to keep going on about. It’s over a thousand pages long and weighs about four and a half tons but I didn’t regret taking it with me for a single second. Had I left it behind I would have pined dreadfully. I’ve already done (since we’re on the subject of aesthetics) Athens, Florence, Shakespeare’s London, Vienna (twice – at each end of the nineteenth century), Paris (also end of C19) and post WW1 Berlin. Then it was on to the techies: Manchester (cotton), Glasgow (ships), Berlin again (electronics), and I’m now in Detroit doing Ford and his Model T. Great stuff, and there’s twice as much again more great stuff to come, including Hollywood (Hollywood) and fifties Memphis (rock ‘n’ roll). I will surely be saying more about this fabulous book.

“Arts and Entertainment” doesn’t really do all this justice, but it was the best label I could find. There isn’t a samizdata subject category for “not pussy stuff”.

Samizdata slogan of the day

Every government is a parliament of whores. The trouble is, in a democracy, the whores are us.
– P. J. O’Rourke

Murder they wrote

It had to come out eventually. This week “soldier 027” gave testimony on the events of Bloody Sunday in Derry. He is under careful protection for now so his buddies won’t get a chance to silence him.

Those events of long ago were target practice. The Para’s were told by an officer before they went out “they might get kills”. And they did. They opened fire on unarmed civilian demonstrators and killed thirteen people. Intentionally. With careful aim. Soldier 027 said he believes one soldier was responsible for up to ten of the body count. While his buddies were dropping demonstrators, he was scanning the line of them with his scope, unable to find any threat.

His buddies agreed to a story. His own statements after the event were modified without his knowledge. This shows his superiors were involved and culpable.

It is as if the US National Guard sent to Selma, Alabama did so in hopes of either getting their first kill1 or adding to their tally, shot a bunch of civil rights workers… and then Johnson claimed the unarmed NAACP demonstrators fired on them… and then by the time an inquiry of “appropriate persons” was convened, the US Army had forged the written record to back up the claim of innocence.

One must note the Paratroop Regiment simply did not belong in Derry. They are an elite war-fighting group intended for serious kill or be killed combat, not police work. I should like to see the persons responsible for that deployment tried and hung for the cold blooded murder of 13 people and the responsibility for all of what came after.

It is not hard to understand why a community would rally around those who would fight back, and I know from discussions over beers in West Belfast that back in those early days of the insurrection the Para’s were particular targets.

And they brought it on themselves.

1 = Unfortunately the Ohio National Guard corrected this oversight. The State is not your friend.

Dear British Idiotarians…

The next time one of you says that “The so-called war against Al Qaeda has got nothing to do with us in the United Kingdom, we must just leave the Yanks to sort out their own problems”, please wait a moment while I read the following list of British names to you:

    Neil Bowler
    Jon Ellwood
    Ian Findley
    Marc Gajardo
    Paul Hussey
    David Kent
    Peter Record
    Chris Redman
    Clive Walton
    Douglas Warner
    Tim Arnold
    John Beaumont
    Daniel Braden
    Chris Bradford
    Matthew Chappell
    Rachael Edwards
    Lucy Empson
    Emma Fox
    Laura France
    Tom Holmes
    Chris Kays
    Annika Linden
    Daniel Miller
    Natalie Perkins
    Stephen Speirs
    Edward Waller

All these British people were murdered in Bali by Islamic terrorists whilst on holiday. Add them to the 67 British reasons from September 11th as to why this is not just a matter for the United States .. and then please shut the fuck up.