We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

The fatal conceit of central banks

The Financial Times in an editorial chastises the U.S. Federal Reserve bank chairman Alan Greenspan for encouraging speculators, such as those mysterious bodies called hedge funds, to snaffle up bonds recently by cutting interest rates to ward off deflation, only to find that bond prices dropped sharply once it appeared the economic situation in the U.S. was improving. (It is too early to say for sure that things are getting better in the world economy though. Certainly not in Continental Europe).

I do not really have a quick way of picking through the rights and wrongs of the FT’s position. I think it is plainly daft that Greenspan, who remains one of the sharpest economic brains around, would have deliberately set out to con investors. What I do think this episode does, however, is reinforce in my mind the enormous risks of entrusting great economic powers to folk like Dr. Greenspan. In fact, the more highly regarded such men and women are, the more lethal the consequences when they slip up.

Even many folk who consider themselves to be ardent free marketeers can get caught up in near religious reverence for the great central banker. Financial speculators hang on every word. The most bland of statements are parsed for some deeper meaning. I have spent too many hours than I care to remember trying to work out if the statement of X or Y actually suggests that inflation is likely to up, down, or whatever.

The cult of the central banker is one of those belief systems of surprisingly short duration, by historical standards. Maybe in decades to come, we will look back on the era of Alan Greenspan and his ilk rather as we would that of the Medieval Popes. And we will be even more struck when we recall that Greenspan, when a young economics student and friend of Ayn Rand, urged a return to old-style private banking and the unfairly maligned Gold Standard.

Terminator broadcast terminated

It turns out that the US government’s asinine “equal time” rule for broadcasters, which requires them to give all candidates for office equal time on their stations, will be applied to effectively bar the broadcasting of Arnold Schwarzenegger movies in California for the duration of the recall campaign.

Arnold Schwarzenegger’s foray into California’s gubernatorial recall election poses a dilemma for broadcasters who might be tempted to show his films during the race: Doing so would allow rival candidates to demand equal time.

For that reason, broadcasters in California will likely not air Schwarzenegger movies such as “Total Recall” and the “Terminator” or a repeat of a “Diff’rent Strokes” episode with Gary Coleman for the next few months.

Cable channels are not covered by the Federal Communications Commission’s equal-time provision, which in the past kept reruns of “Death Valley Days” off the air while Ronald Reagan ran for president.

Since there are 240 candidates, no broadcaster would possibly risk having to cough up 2 hours for each candidate as “equal time” for Arnold’s movie appearances.

Storm in a teacup

Sticking with the ‘names’ theme, it must be silly season in the US Congress. At least, I certainly hope so because this is the quite the daftest thing I have heard in a good long while:

Do devastating hurricanes need help from affirmative action?

A member of Congress apparently thinks so, and is demanding the storms be given names that sound “black.”

The congressional newspaper the Hill reported this week that Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, feels that the current names are too “lily white,” and is seeking to have better representation for names reflecting African-Americans and other ethnic groups.

First there was ‘Scoop’ Jackson, now we have ‘Windbag’ Lee.

“All racial groups should be represented,” Lee said, according to the Hill. She hoped federal weather officials “would try to be inclusive of African-American names.”

What about tornadoes? Don’t they deserve names as well? This is pure weatherism.

Don’t mess with Texas… except the taxes, that is

All the coverage of California we have had in Britain has not mentioned the fact that another large State in the United States has just balanced its budget.

I believe I am right in saying that the second largest State in the Union (Texas) has balanced its budget without increasing taxes.

Texas has achieved this by the strange practice of – cutting government spending

This policy does not often occur to politicians or media folk.

The taxes in Texas

Good news II…?

US Senate will be voting on a proposed law that would prevent the taxation of Internet access. The Internet Tax Non-Discrimination Act was approved by the Senate Commerce Committee whose approval sends the measure to the full Senate for a vote. Computerworld reports:

The bill, introduced by Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), would make permanent a five-year-old moratorium on Internet-specific taxes. Congress first approved a three-year moratorium in 1998 and renewed it again in 2001, but it’s now set to expire on November 1st.

The moratorium prohibits taxes on Internet access, discriminatory taxes on purchases made over the Internet and the double-taxation of Internet commerce (by two different states, for instance). It doesn’t, however, outlaw the collection of sales taxes on items bought in Internet transactions.

All technologies used to provide Internet access, which now include wireless, Digital Subscriber Line, cable modem and dial-up connections would be exempt.

Sounds like good news to me. And if TCPA/TCG and Palladium/NGSCB were stopped somehow, now that would be great news!

Are you sure you didn’t miss anything?

According to Fox News, the FBI has released a new list of “things that can be used as weapons”. Airport security personnel are being briefed on how to spot the new no-no’s. I am certain we are all pleased the FBI are on their toes. In a mere two years they have discovered hidden knives and other weapons are available in martial arts catalogues. I’m sure we will all breathe easier knowing we are now completely safe.

I am of course being facetious. The list is inadequate and will always be so. They could perhaps force us to check everything at the ticket counter and fly naked. That certainly would limit the possibilities for smuggling knives on board. While the idea does have its’ charms and would certainly ease the boredom of long transoceanic flights, it would be insufficient. There is an old adage: “There are no dangerous weapons. There are only dangerous people.” In the hands of a trained warrior virtually anything is a deadly weapon quite capable of intimidation of the cowardly. One can do terrible things with bare hands.

So let’s get real guys. You are wasting your time and ours at the gate. You will fail to spot the terrorists or their weapons. They will do something you have not thought of. They will get on board a number of airliners again one day. They will imagine they can intimidate an airliner full of Americans into submission again… and we, the flying public will then tear them into pieces too small for burial.

There is a field in Western Pennsylvania that shows who the truly dangerous people are.

Good news – I

Andy Duncan, in his rather, umm, shall we say, idiosyncratic post Ode to the future, made a very good point. He noted that we tend to obsess over the bad news here at Samizdata.

As a political professional, I can assure you that nothing turns off your audience more quickly than an unremitting diet of negativity, and nothing harms an advocate more than having only complaints without solutions. I happen to believe that, in the very big picture and the very long view, a lot of trends are running our way. Now, I enjoy complaining about the cult of the state as much as the next fellow, but I will be making a conscious effort to bring some good news to the fore. With that in mind, I give you the retirement of Senator Fritz Hollings.

This is good news, in small part, because it his seat in the US Senate will likely go from the Democratic Party to the Republican next year. As odious as the Republicans frequently are, I find that I can tolerate around 15% of their platform, as opposed to perhaps 2% of the Democratic platform, so this counts as a small plus.

The major reason that this is good news is that ol’ Fritz was perhaps the single most committed protectionist in the Senate.

“Later, in a telephone interview, Hollings said he plans to redouble his efforts before his term ends on issues ranging from budget discipline to protecting textile and other domestic industries, which were among his leading interests for years.”

He recently became known as the ‘Senator from Disney,’ after campaign contributions from that source revealed a previously unsuspected interest in extending intellectual property protections to unprecedented lengths, allowing Disney to retain income streams from Mickey Mouse far into the future.

(For the uninitiated, when a Democrat talks about “budget discipline,” they are referring to increased taxes, not reduced spending.)

Is demography destiny?

David Bernstein, posting on the Volokh Conspiracy, notes that:

The political views of Latinos are troubling for advocates of limited government, who also tend to be advocates of liberal immigration policies. As the New York Times reported yesterday, and has been well-known for some time by those who follow such things, Latinos, like prior waves of immigrants from poor Catholic countries, tend to be socially conservative and in favor of big government in the economic realm. In the famous Nolan Chart, Latino voters are disproportionately in the “authoritarian” quadrant, the opposite quadrant from limited government-oriented libertarians.

Given that Latinos are already considered a very important swing vote, and will become ever more important as they become a larger percentage of voters, the current volume of Latino immigration can’t be good news in the short to medium term for fans of limited government.

This is depressing news, given that Latinos are such a large and rapidly growing ethnic group in the US, and have been identified by both parties as a critical consituency to court. Identifying Latinos are social conservatives likely to, say, oppose gay marriage could go a long way toward explaining the apparent ease with which leading Democrats and Republicans have come out in opposition to the idea. The pursuit of the Latino vote, while it may lead to pandering/sensitivity (take your pick) on immigration issues that is congenial to at least some libertarians, may also lead both parties further into the swamps of government-enforced morality.

One wonders if there are any ethnic groups that are culturally predisposed to liberty. One also wonders whether the fabled ‘self-selection’ of the immigration ordeal skews the immigrant profile toward those who want more freedom than they have at home, or toward those who are inured to enduring the immigration and naturalization bureaucracy.

Whose idea was it?

Here’s a quick quiz for you… I’ll post the answers later on.

1) Whose idea was the Department of Homeland Security?

2) Who suggested the US use pre-emptive action against States harbouring WMD?

Answer: Well, one person got very close, Gary Hart was indeed involved with both of these.

These two items and a whole bunch of others are part of the final report “Road Map For National Security: Imperative For Change, PhaseIII”. This was a bipartisan two year commission which completed its’ draft final report (from which I am working) Jan 31, 2001. President Bush and his team had barely moved into their offices at the time.

The commission was co-chaired by Hart and Rudman and was tasked with a total systemic review of US National Security.

I love free markets

The Pentagon funded research agency DARPA are launching something called the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) which is in its own words…

    A Market in the Futures of the Middle East..

and will provide…
    insight into the interactions among Middle Eastern and U.S. interests and policy decisions.

This is done by letting you trade…
    on data indices that track economic health, civil stability, military disposition, and U.S. economic & military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey.

…as well as other contracts. There has been some opposition to the idea. Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota have urged the Pentagon to drop the idea stating that…
    The idea of a federal betting parlour on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it’s grotesque.

and …
    useless, offensive and unbelievably stupid.

Trading begins October 1st

Trading places

Given its intimate association with brutal and murderous ‘ethnic cleansing’ it is entirely understandable that the term ‘population transfer’ raises more than a few hackles.

But it need not necessarily be something to fear. Provided it is thought of in terms of free trade, then I can see a peaceful and voluntary process of population transfer as a beneficial thing.

Indeed, the process already appears to be underway:

A husband and wife in Minnesota, a college student in Georgia, a young executive in New York. Though each has distinct motives for packing up, they agree the United States is growing too conservative and believe Canada offers a more inclusive, less selfish society.

“For me, it’s a no-brainer,” said Mollie Ingebrand, a puppeteer from Minneapolis who plans to go to Vancouver with her lawyer husband and 2-year-old son.

Nor are these itchy feet to be found exclusively in the USA. There are people in Britain too, like this correspondent to the Guardian (concerning the death of Dr.David Kelly), who see Canada as the ‘Golden Medina’:

I think he HAD TO BE RUBBED OUT. He knew too much, where the bodies were buried, so his had to be buried as well. Maybe you’re more honest than we are: the media and the government are co=conspirators here. So good luck. I”m moving to Canada, land of the free.

Some may see this as a tragedy but I see it as an indirect means of slashing public spending. Surely it is preferable for all these guardianistas and tax-consumers to converge upon one country where they can stew in each other’s misery rather than staying where they are, demanding entitlements and whining interminably about the unfairness of it all. Together, they can truly build the kind of society they want to live in.

Of course this process need not, and should not, be a one-way street. Canada has no shortage of ambitious, hard-working people who might see their futures as somewhat sullen in the Land of the Puppeteers. The easiest solution is for them to pack their bags and head off to less stultifying climes where their talent and energy will be both appreciated and rewarded.

In fact, that is what loads of Canadians have been doing:

But every year since 1977, more Canadians have emigrated to the United States than vice versa — the 2001 figures were 5,894 Americans moving north, 30,203 Canadians moving south.

Quite what this means for Canada in the long run I dare not even imagine but for the rest of us it can only be good news. Carry on, I say.

[My thanks to the Brothers Judd for the link and to Peter Cuthbertson for the Guardian letter.]

Property rights New York way

This week New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg signed into law a provision that transfers liability for personal injuries on public sidewalks from the city to the adjacent building owner. In addition, a companion bill the mayor signed will require property owners to carry liability insurance that provides coverage for sidewalk injuries.

This legislation transfers liability for sidewalk accidents from the city to the property owners who already have the duty to keep the sidewalks in good repair.

So let me get this right. You do not own the bit of the pavement in front of your house/flat. Nevertheless, you are responsible for keeping in it good repair, clean it of snow, ice and other obstructions to pedestrians. At your own cost. For the Public Good. And you are also liable for anything that happens to your accident-prone, trigger-suing compatriots.

Call me old-fashioned but this is outrageous. The concept of being responsible for something you do not own and have no property right to is not only non-sensical but goes to the heart of your personal freedom. The New York City imposes a cost on you without any corresponding choice to dispose of that responsibility. They make you clean, repair and pay legal costs for the pavement whether you like it or not, in the name of Clean and Safe Pavements. You are made a slave to the passing pedestrians or rather the Public in general, which of course is a patriotic and public-spirited thing. That sounds familiar…

Oh, and now you are also forced to buy insurance to pay for the liability you have no choice in incurring. It seems that New York Mayor sees property rights his way.