We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
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Paul Staines points out a splendid example of the French state doing its bit to support the world’s largest tyranny
As Taiwan’s democrats get bullets before ballots, France demonstrates its exceptionalism once again. This week the French navy began joint exercises with the Chinese navy. No, really.
Not content with just lobbying other EU countries to lift the arms embargo on China imposed in the wake of the Tiannamen Square massacre in 1989 (who says the French are always against free trade?), they are training with the Chinese navy. The official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, said they would be China’s biggest ever joint military exercises with a foreign power. (Note to Beijing, it took Churchill a single day to sink almost the entire French navy, but maybe you have not got many seafaring friends to learn from.)
Taiwan obviously is anxious about the situation – which they describe as a threatening show of force. The French not content with cruising the seas with Taiwan’s mortal enemy recently condemned President Chen Shui-bian’s plan to hold a referendum on missile defense as part of this coming Saturday’s election, prompting Taipei to suspend top-level ties with Paris.
I suppose with reduced opportunities for arms sales to Iraq the prospect of equipping the Chinese military appeals.
Paul Staines
Scott Wickstein gives us some analysis on what is happening in the world’s most populous Muslim nation
Indonesia is not a nation that bestrides the global stage, so the fact that it goes to the polls this year has not attracted much international attention. The elections, though, matter a lot to Indonesia, and they will be interesting to outside observers as well.
Indonesia is new at this sort of thing. Since independence, democracy was ditched in favour of rule by Presidents Sukarno and Suharto, and this year’s poll will only be the second that could really be called democratic.
Like America and India, Indonesia is fond of political dynasties, and the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is the daughter of President Sukarno. It is not a happy family though. In this election, Megawati faces challenges from both her sisters. → Continue reading: Indonesia goes to the polls
Scott Wickstein takes a look at how farmers in so many parts of the First World get away with distorting trade at other people’s expense, both via pocketing taxes and inflating prices in the supermarkets of Australia, Britain, Europe and North America
To the list of certainties in life, such as death and taxes, we can add the fact that farmers will clamour for protection and subsidies. That is not surprising, but what is surprising is that around the globe, governments of all persuasions, whatever their nature, are willing to obey the demands of their farm lobbies.
A typical example of this is the recently concluded free trade agreement between Australia and the United States. Much of the agreement is actually devoted to excluding certain products from free trade. One such product is sugar, which was excluded at the behest of the US sugar producers lobby. That exclusion, in turn, provoked such an outcry by Australian sugar producers that the Australian government felt obliged to provide subsidies for the Australian sugar farmers.
From these actions, one can conclude that the political clout of the US sugar producers is much greater then that of sugar consumers, such as confectionery manufacturers. And yet, this is but a manifestation of a trend which is global. All over the world, governments are all too willing to knuckle down and obey the demands of their farm lobbies. That politicians do this, and run the risk of enraging urban electorates, speaks volumes about the organization of farm lobbies, and, indeed, it also shows how disorganised free trade proponents are. → Continue reading: First blast of the trumpet against the Monstrous Regiments of Farmers1
Slowjoe has spotted something calculated to start teeth grinding here on Samizdata.net
The Register talks about an attempt by the EU to railroad through the Intellectual Property Rights Enforcement Directive.
It appears to give the ‘rights holder’ carte blanche… almost the right to set up a private police force.
The interesting thing is that the rapporteur did an end-run around any debate. She also happens to be the wife of the head of Vivendi Universal.
Slowjoe
Nick Forte has some good news in the struggle for ideas in the USA
The advocates for smaller government appear to be winning the war of ideas on this side of the pond if the following Rasmussen poll is accurate. For a long time I believed this to be the case, but I was surprised by the margin shown in the poll.
February 16, 2004–Sixty-four percent (64%) of American voters say that they prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes. A Rasmussen Reports survey finds that just 22% would rather see a more active government with more services and higher taxes.
What is even more amazing is that even a majority of Democrats hold this view. Only the extreme left prefer more government over less government, and even then by not as large of a margin as one might have guessed.
Support for smaller government cuts across just about all demographic lines . It is the preference for 67% of men and 62% of…
[…]
… group, 49% say they want a more active government with more services and higher taxes. Just 40% prefer smaller government
It will be interesting to see how this will affect US politics. So far, President Bush has not been able to capitalize on what should be a Republican issue because he has been seen (accurately) as big spender despite his tax cuts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, an earlier Rasmussen poll shows that more Americans voters view the front running liberal New England Democratic presidential candidate as better able to control spending than the purportedly conservative Texan Republican candidate (42% to 33%).
There is indeed growing discontent among conservatives over Bush’s spending record. Last week, House Republicans held a ‘mandatory’ conference to come up with ideas to curtail runaway government spending. Among the more radical initiatives under discussion are measures to curb the power of House authorizers and appropriators who have routinely ignored budget limits, giving the budget resolution the force of law, and requiring two-thirds supermajorities in both the House and the Senate to pass spending provisions which exceed the budget.
Although some Republican members of Congress are true believers in the need to reduce the size of government, many more are probably reacting to concerns that Americans are turning to the Democrats as the party of fiscal responsibility, undercutting a traditional GOP advantage. Could it be that political pressures for lower spending has finally overtaken the normal election year drive by politicians to buy more votes through higher government spending? Recent actions by Congress suggest not, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
Nick Forte
Falls Church, Virginia
Guy Herbert finds this is a bit worrying.
The BBC reports that six people suspected of terror activities have been re-arrested on lesser charges. All six were originally arrested under section 41 of the Terrorism Act, on suspicion of involvement in the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism. They were released under terror laws but re-arrested on other matters such as bank fraud and immigration offences.
What’s wrong with this picture? Under the Terrorism Act reasonable suspicion is not required to arrest or search. Therefore it has potential to be used for fishing expeditions – police arrest you and search your property without proper cause. Of course, they’ll have an actual cause, such as being uncooperative with officials or some such pretext, and give themselves a week to find something on you. Once they have found something on you, their actions are justified in the eyes of the Lawn Order brigade.
Given the state of the criminal law and bureaucratic reach, I sincerely doubt there is anyone in the country who could not be charged with some crime after a week of interrogation and search, even among those whose lawns are in perfect order and believe they have nothing to hide.
Patrick Crozier has some interesting thoughts on ‘the war to end all wars’. A blogopotamus of a post in fact!
Who am I to start writing about the origins of the First World War? Many others, far more qualified than me have speculated at great length on the subject. Entire British Library bookcases groan under the weight of tomes dedicated to the minute analysis of the Austrian Ultimatum and the Naval Arms Race. And here am I either adding to or (more likely) replicating that effort.
The First World War was, to me at least, the great disaster of the 20th Century. Millions died. Millions more experienced the horror of the trenches: the cold, the mud, the shelling, the stench, the lice, the exhaustion, the ever present fear, the death. It gave birth to Total War, to conscription and to rationing. It laid the foundations for a massive expansion of the state, the Second World War, brought forth the horrors of communism and, in turn, the Cold War. The chain of events ends in the European Union – that instrument of European economic and political suicide. If only it had not happened. If only it could have been prevented.
Of course, the mere fact that the war was a dreadful thing need not mean that its cause was similarly great. One thinks of President Kennedy and his assassin. But, if lessons are to be learnt then one needs to know what started it.
The reason I am writing this is because I have long been unhappy with traditional, textbook explanations for the outbreak of World War I; the sort of thing you get taught at school (see here for an example). Such explanations tend to harp on about Great Power rivalries or the Alliance system. Some add in the growth of industry, nationalism, socialism and democracy. → Continue reading: The origins of the First World War
Paul Staines points up another consequence of pursuit of democracy as an end in and of itself in the Middle East
The latest Al Qaeda action in Turkey is their logical response to the US pushing democracy into the Muslim world. Could it be that Al Qaeda is trying to push democracy out of its only Muslim stronghold? So much for the fly-paper theory (which smacked of an ex post facto rationalisation) that Iraq would draw in the world’s assorted Muslim terrorists into a military battleground of the Pentagon’s choosing.
It may be that in the future Istanbul will suffer more than New York and London. Ironic given that Turkey rejected intervening wholeheartedly in Iraq. Attacking Anglosphere interests in Turkey and other Muslim countries in the Western orbit seems to be the best response of the terrorists. Bombing HSBC and the British consulate in Istanbul is a lot easier than bombing Britain’s biggest bank in London.
My impression of Turkey from my last visit (pre 9/11) is that its elites have firmly decided their future lies with the western democracies, but a vocal minority side with the mullahs. I had lunch with an urbane sophisticated somewhat worldly banker, I challenged him about the recent arrest of opposition politicians, piously telling him that Turkey would never enter the EU if it did not respect political and human rights. Without hesitation he simply said:
Tell me, would you like to see 20 Islamic fundamentalist members of the European parliament?
I did not respond, it is an interesting point, democracy will certainly produce uncomfortable outcomes in Iraq as well.
Paul Staines
Paul Staines sees the same problem as David Carr… George Soros has gone off the deep end
I have a lot of respect for George Soros, not because he’s a muliti-billionaire, but because of his huge financial support for his Open Society foundations and for his articulating the intriguing concept of ‘reflexivity’ in financial markets. I found the philosophical excursions of the former student of Karl Popper interesting, even if professional philosophers tended to find them embarrassing. But his 2002 book George Soros on Globalization confirmed what was pretty clear from his 1998 The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered. He was getting messianic and becoming like a bootlegger turned temperance campaigner. Soros would deny that he is anti-capitalist, he is he says against market fundamentalism. Ironic given his phenomenal success in unregulated currency markets.
For the last decade Soros has been preaching a third way for international finance – seeking to update the international financial architecture is an intellectually respectable position. Keynes’ Bretton Woods structures have worked more or less, they may have even prevented a few disasters, but they can definitely be improved upon. Interventionist multi-lateral institutions intervening in markets to maintain the liberal market order may or may not work. After a little over half a century of experimentation it is hard to tell. The IMF, World Bank et al may have made things worse more often than they have been the cavalry coming into save the global economy. Sometimes, his argument goes, international capitalism gets so manically out of control it needs to be saved from itself. The jury is out on that. Soros is, in the tradition of Keynes, not an enemy of capitalism, but someone who wants to radically temper it.
Fair enough, it’s not crypto-Marxism, he means well, he may even have a point. But now according to the Washington Post, Soros is devoting his efforts to defeating Bush in 2004. So far he has given $15m towards anti-Bush campaigns, “It is the central focus of my life… a matter of life and death.” He goes on to say “America, under Bush, is a danger to the world, and I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.”
I think at 74, Soros is losing his grip, his self proclaimed ‘Soros Doctrine’ is delusional, his one-man foreign policy was fine when he was promoting democracy but is overstretched trying to re-fashion geo-politics. Now he is getting down and dirty in partisan presidential politics he may come to regret it.
Speculation, philosophy and philanthropy are much more gentlemanly affairs, the Republicans are already claiming he has bought the Democratic party. Soros is in danger of jeopardising his place in posterity. Shame.
Paul Staines
Mark Holland has spotted a little gem in the German press
It would appear that the little village of Norderfriedrichskoog in Schleswig-Holstein, with a population of just 45 inhabitants, has 500 registered companies including subsidiaries of conglomerates like Deutsche Bank, Lufthansa and power giant e.ON
Why?
Because the town does not charge business tax, that is tax on profits. And the firms have saved €300 million in the last decade.
German Finance Minister Hans Eichel is desperate to get his mitts on this loot and wants to ‘reform’ local authority finances. According to Eichel’s plans, all local authorities must set a minimum rate for local business taxes.
And there was me thinking Germany was a federation. Wouldn’t the states have something to say about this? I guess Eichel is simply following the EU trend of ‘harmonisation’, ie raising upwards to the highest common denominator.
Mark Holland
Bernie Greene wonders just how scientific is the science behind the smoking debate?
Epidemiology began with a fellow called John Snow investigating to find the cause of a cholera epidemic in London in the 19th Century. He had the idea that it might be coming from contamination in a well. So he took a map showing the locations of wells and plotted the incidence of the disease on the map. Sure enough they were mostly in close proximity to one particular well. He had the well put out of service and there were no more new cases of cholera. That is a simple story of logic and surveying intelligently applied to test a theory.
It is very unfortunate that it was so simple to solve. He might then have left a better example for his followers.
What if he had found that the 166 1 total cholera cases were scattered all over the map pretty evenly but that they all had pink carnations on their coats? One hundred thousand people wore pink carnations and 99,874 did not get cholera.
What does he do now? Well if he were a tobacco investigator he would petition the government to do something about pink carnations. But let’s say he is a brighter boy.
He decides to go and interview the cholera cases in more depth. → Continue reading: Honest science or propaganda?
Tim Sturm sees some interesting parallels between the British Tory Party and the New Zealand National Party.
UK Conservatives concerned with the current leadership battle might take note of similar events in New Zealand, where the NZ equivalent, the National Party, has just voted in Don Brash1, former Governor of the Reserve Bank, and a classical liberal, as its new leader.
The similarities between National and the Conservatives are many:
- National has been the dominant party since at least WWII and considers itself the natural party of government
- It is currently floundering in the polls in its second consecutive term in opposition
- It is unable to counter the lefty backlash against the ‘Thatcherite’ reforms of the 80’s and 90’s and is apparently unwilling or unable to articulate any clear policies or principles.
- It appears to be self-destructing through infighting and ineffectual leadership.
Hopefully much of this is about to change.
The elevation of Brash to the leadership role can be seen as a firm pronouncement of principle, even if a reluctant one for some. Brash is not necessarily the best politician in the tactical sense, but he is certainly the highest profile man of principle the party has.
For instance, he is unashamedly supportive of the earlier reform programme. His central bank reforms were a key part of that programme and became a model (albeit flawed) for central banks around the world.
What’s more, his principles are generally quite good. In his maiden parliamentary speech, he said:
People are generally in the best position to make decisions for themselves and their families. This argues for the maximum amount of freedom for the individual.
(Brash also, incidentally, subscribes to and has occasionally written for The Free Radical, New Zealand’s premier libertarian magazine).
National has finally therefore drawn a clear dividing line with the ruling Labour government, which is staunchly antagonistic to the earlier reforms and to free markets in general.
It remains to be seen whether this attack of principle will be successful in lifting National out of the poll doldrums. Frankly I do not care about that. The long term future of conservative politics lies in principles, not in random shifts of sentiment that National and the UK’s Conservatives have been hoping for.
I only hope the Conservatives are watching.
Tim Sturm
1 = The linked article overstates Brash’s ‘social conscience’. Brash has written extensively for a reduction in the size of the welfare state. See for example here.
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We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
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