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Strategies in the US-Iran war… The Iranian Islamic Republic’s strategy is obvious: simply remain in power by gunning down or hanging any internal opposition, and inflict as much global economic damage as possible to increase pressure on the USA and Israel until Trump lives up to his TACO nickname.
The USA strategy is rather less obvious as pretty much any result that leave Iran as a hostile Islamic Republic is an Iranian political win even if their military capabilities are degraded.
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It is the age old story of American foreign policy. Win decisively on the battlefield, utterly fail on the political resolution.
I think Iran may have committed a faux pas by blockading the Straits of Hormuz. This allows the USA to do the same to them. This is said to be costing the Iranian state about a quarter of a billion dollars a day in lost oil revenue. I hope this is true.
I believe it was for this very reason that it was thought Iran would not blockade the straits. But with so many of its leadership currently dead, the islamic republic may be behaving even more irrationally that usual.
What will bring this regime down is the usual: economic collapse. When they cannot pay their mercenaries in hard currency, US dollars ironically enough, then it is all over. It is just possible that Trump has stumbled on the best way of ridding the world of this evil regime. All he has to do is hold his nerve and maintain the blockade. No need to blow up any bridges or power plants. Time is not on their side.
Oh, ye of little faith.
Trump’s working acronym is TAW.
@bobby b
Trump’s working acronym is TAW.
You’ll have to clarify. And just to be clear, Trump is on a clock too, a very short clock.
Not at all, that is key to disrupting the global economy, which of course hurts Iran but also hurts pretty much the entire world, and therefore adds pressure on Trump to end the conflict with some “deal” that leaves the Iranian Islamic Republic in power.
Seems to me that short of a full scale invasion of Iran with boots on the ground, US strategy needs to be to do *anything* required to spark & sustain internal revolt within Iran. If Trump manages to pull that off & enable a coup/revolution/pronunciamento in Iran, he wins big. Pretty much any other result is a loss.
I see video on X of soldiers parading with a display of weaponry. I have been wondering why they are not a target for US air power.
Perry : Not at all, that is key to disrupting the global economy, which of course hurts Iran but also hurts pretty much the entire world, and therefore adds pressure on Trump
Not really – it affects pretty much anyone who buys oil fom the Gulf, excepting those who can get oil sent by pipe across Saudi Arabia. Which is certainly lots of places, but mostly not the United States. So all the places that The Donald has been trying to tariff into submission, plus Iran, are hurtin’. Boo hoo.
Pressure on Trump comes from expending valuable munitions that can’t easily be replaced, the Senate GOP dodging and weaving, that sort of thing. Oil pain in Germany and China is not pressure. It’s sweet nemesis. And in any event the navies of Europe are entirely free to sail to the Straits of Hormuz and gunboat then open. Or possibly have a conference about it all.
The Donald, having had a bullet clip his ear a little while back, is living “bonus time” – he’s enjoying himself.
Perry:
I think Iran has fallen into a trap of their own making. The USA would not have blockaded Iran’s use of the strait if Iran had not done it first. Now they are losing a quarter of a billion dollars of oil revenue a day, and the USA is not having to spend any money on bombing them. Iran has nowhere to store its oil, and you cannot just shut down an oil well.
I am already reading reports that the IRGC is preventing the negotiators from going to Pakistan. The regime is crumbling. The “Supreme Leader” seems to be in a coma if not actually dead. Without the hard currency to pay its mercenaries, the regime is doomed. I do not think this was Trump’s plan, but it seems to be working out. So long as he keeps up the blockade, this regime is doomed.
Perry:
A couple of days ago i read a tweet by an Iranian, who said that Trump actually told the Iranian people to wait, avoid wasting their lives until the time comes when the regime is weakened enough.
Also, what Lee Moore said.
All 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard (which is the regime – it stands or falls with the Revolutionary Guard) must be destroyed.
Negotiations (“talks”) are pointless – as even if the Islamic Republic of Iran regime agrees to XYZ their basic theology states that agreements with infidels are not binding.
The question is – does President Trump, and the rest of the Administration, understand that the “talks” with the IRI regime are pointless (see above) and that all 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard (which is the regime – it stands or falls with the Revolutionary Guard) must be destroyed.
@Lee Moore
Not really – it affects pretty much anyone who buys oil fom the Gulf
That’s not true. Oil is fungible, it affects everyone who uses oil.
excepting those who can get oil sent by pipe across Saudi Arabia.
That’s also not true. The oil pipeline has a capacity of about 5 million barrels per day. China alone uses 16 million barrels per day. Typically 20 million barrels per day travel through the strait. There is an additional pipeline across the UAE with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day. So these alternative routes do not carry enough oil or anything like it to satisfy world demand.
Which is certainly lots of places, but mostly not the United States. So all the places that The Donald has been trying to tariff into submission, plus Iran, are hurtin’. Boo hoo.
Did you pump gas lately? It affects the USA too. It is a major economic impact here. They are talking about inflation above 5% just in time for the mid terms. Something Trump seems to have forgotten is that he was elected to fix the economy not fight foreign wars. In fact he was elected specifically not to fight foreign wars. So this means his actions are not only not making the economy better, they are making it very much worse.
The Donald, having had a bullet clip his ear a little while back, is living “bonus time” – he’s enjoying himself.
I don’t think he is. I think he is squirming to find any way out of this quagmire he has set up for himself. I totally agree with PdH’s comment above. The end game was the Iranian people rise up and take their country back. They have not done so (and given the brutality of the regime, who can question their judgement), and so the only options left are a land war (which Trump can’t possibly do, right?), or leaving with his tail between his legs. Trump’s a pretty good negotiator, so maybe he has a trick up his sleeve. I sure as hell hope so. This whole thing has been the same old American story replayed once again — overwhelming military force followed by overwhelming political incompetence, poor judgement and lack of planning.
I really hope I am wrong and he can fix this.
Fraser Orr – President Trump had little choice, his only other option was to wait till the Islamic Republic of Iran regime had built up such a massive number of drones (they manufacture them) that they would, behind a shield of tens of thousands of drones, be able to build up production capacity for nuclear weapons (what was destroyed last June could, and would, be rebuilt) – the IRI regime are Shia “hasteners” – they believe that the USE of nuclear weapons to hasten the return of the 12th or “Hidden” Imam.
It was a matter of mathematics – left to develop their drone and missile defenses the IRI regime would, eventually, be in a position where any conventional (non nuclear) attack upon them – would fail. So the attack had to be BEFORE the IRI regime got to that position.
If they gain nuclear weapons – they will USE them, this is the point. And threatening them with death is pointless – as they believe that if they are killed in conflict with infidels they will go to paradise.
Negotiations with such a regime are utterly pointless – as followers of M……. (infamous for his treachery – for example his pledge of peace and friendship to various communities in Arabia, before following up with surprise attacks where he had all the men killed and the women taken as slaves) they do not regard any agreement with infidels as binding.
As for the Iranian people rising up…..
This can only be successful if the Revolutionary Guard (the 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard) are destroyed.
This is not complicated – it has been repeatedly explained, by many people, over many years.
The IRI regime must be destroyed – and to destroy the regime, the Revolutionary Guard must first be destroyed. Otherwise they will slaughter any uprising by the Iranian people – as they have done many times in the past.
Contrary to a certain 18th century philosopher – governments are often NOT based on the tacit consent of the people, governments are often based on the support of an armed and organized minority – who the people are, rightly, afraid of.
The Revolutionary Guard in Iran are that armed minority – they must be destroyed.
And NO – a “land war” is not necessary to destroy the Revolutionary Guard.
It is not necessary to kill every member of the Revolutionary Guard – it is necessary to destroy the command and control structure of its 31 regional commands (then the members of the Revolutionary Guard will no longer be organised) – this can be done without a land war.
I am reminded of the former head of Shin Bet (the Israeli security service) saying how he “did not understand” why his policy of deterring Hamas had failed.
This showed that he did not understand Islam – not even at the most basic “101” level. Hamas, although supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, are Sunni rather than Shia – but on this point, it makes no difference.
Sincere followers of M….. (whether Shia or Sunni) believe that if they are killed in conflict with infidels they (automatically) go to paradise and have eternal bliss.
It is, therefore, not possible to “deter” Hamas, or Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Revolutionary Guard in Iran.
They kill you, or you kill them.
@Paul I find your response surprising.
Do you really think you have a greater understanding of the situation between Israel and Iran than the head of Shin Bet?
Exactly how do drones prevent the US air force dropping bunker buster bombs on nuclear facilities?
Do you really think it did not occur to the US military to destroy the command centers of the Revolutionary Guard?
Tulsi Gabbard herself told us that Iran was nowhere near building a successful nuclear weapon, and I assume you accept that she has better intelligence sources than you or I?
The strategy of containment seemed to be working, Iran was on its back heels. Now? They have the United States by the balls.
The reality, when you put aside this notion that Trump is playing 3D chess is pretty straightforward and perfunctory. Trump, coming off his success in solving various crises around the world, and especially the quick and easy win in Venezuela, figured this would be another trophy on his wall. Netanyahu no doubt played to his ego of “are you going to be the American president that finally solves the middle east?” It was sparked off when there was an opportunity to take out a lot of the leadership in one operation, and then there was a spectacularly successful military operation and absolutely no serious planning for the ante bellum. They can say “of course we had a strategic plan for the Strait”, but if they did, it wasn’t a great plan apparently.
And now we are deep in the shit that we always get ourselves into. And the political consequences in the United States will reverberate around the world and redound to a LOT of hurt.
If only Trump had stuck to what he promised the world would be in a lot better shape today.
Trump seems to have forgotten is that he was elected to fix the economy not fight foreign wars.
The same as Woodrow Wilson.
Fraser Orr – I have already explained that the former head of Shin Bet does not understand the most basic things about Islam.
And, Fraser Orr, are you really unaware that this man was taken totally by surprise by an attack by thousands of Islamic warriors which killed more Jews than any previous attack since the Holocaust? He (Shin Bet) was responsible for intelligence gathering in Gaza – and he knew NOTHING.
Rather than hanging himself (as he should have done) or even resigning, the person (when he was finally dismissed) went to court to try and keep his job – that is the person you are defending Fraser Orr, the dead meant nothing to him, he had no shame – he just wanted to keep his pay and perks.
As for your claim that the Islamic Republic of Iran regime “has the United States by the balls” – are you trying to be funny, or do you get your view of the world from the media?
I have already told you that it was not the case that the IRI was about to get nuclear weapons – it was a matter of mathematics, at the rate their drone manufacturing was increasing they would soon have achieved a level of defense that would have made a, conventional, attack upon them hopeless – THEN they would have got nuclear weapons.
I have already explained this – now I have explained it again. If you still can not (or will not) understand – that is not my problem.
jgh
The economy was fine in November 1912 – there was nothing much for Woodrow Wilson to “fix”, and his actions in 1913, Income Tax and Federal Reserve, were terrible. Indeed the Federal Reserve made crashes like that of 1907 MORE severe – because it increased Credit Money (thus making the bubble bigger) – the idea that what was needed in 1907 was yet more Credit Money (on top of the Credit Money that the banks had already created) was exactly WRONG – it was like a person with a hangover thinking the best response is to drink more booze.
But as for World War One – what most libertarians think they know about the First World War is wrong (totally wrong) – Wilson did not want war (he had many faults but being a warmonger was not one of them) – it was forced upon him.
And NOT just by the Germans sinking many (not one – many) American ships, but also by a campaign of German ordered shootings and bombings inside the United States – and by the Germans stirring up Mexican groups to attack the United States. There were very good reasons why the vote to declare war on Imperial Germany in 1917 overwhelmingly passed the House and Senate.
As for the present conflict – had the IRI been left to expand its production of drones and missiles, it would soon have become impossible to successfully attack them – unless a nuclear attack upon Iran was ordered (do people want a nuclear attack to be the only option? I do NOT), and then (behind that shield of drones and missiles) they would have developed nuclear weapons which they would USE.
That is the point – the IRI would USE nuclear weapons, in order to “hasten” the return of the “Hidden Imam”.
And, contrary to what Fraser Orr seems to think, it was not the Jews who made the decision to attack the IRI regime – none (none) of the Americans involved in making the decision were Jewish – and the idea that the Prime Minister of Israel was manipulating the President of the United States is Tucker Carlson level lie.
The decision was dictated by mathematics – by mathematics. At the rate the IRI drone and missile production was increasing – it was hit them now (including hitting their factories now) or the chance was gone, and they would (behind that shield of drone and missile defenses) have developed their nuclear weapons – which they would USE.
Seems to me that short of a full scale invasion of Iran with boots on the ground
Iran is big, and has a big population. A full scale invasion is way beyond what the US is capable of, militarily and politically.
But, just taking the straits of Hormuz may be doable. You have to occupy (boots on the ground) some islands in the strait and a strip of land on the Iranian shore. Maybe not so easy, but doable.
Iranian control of Hormuz could choke Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, UAE, etc., beside imposing economic pain on the whole world. Hormuz is an international waterway. Closing it is illegal.
One major problem is that though all countries suffer from the Hormuz closure (including China, Japan, Korea, and, of course, Europe), none of them is willing or capable of doing what it takes to secure and open strait.
So, what would be the solution? None that I can see. Iran and the world and Trump will keep suffering.
Regime change in Iran? That is, of course, the desirable solution. Will it happen soon? Nobody knows. Though, sometimes, regime change can happen quite suddenly.
If someone really had wanted to prevent busts like that of 1907 – they would have repealed the existing banking acts, not added a new one.
There is nothing wrong with money lending for interest (with being a “Shylock” or “loan shark”) if-you-actually-have-the-money-you-are-lending-out – if you actually have the cash and physically give the cash to the borrower.
There is everything wrong with creating “money” from nothing, and lending out this “money” that never had any physical existence till you did your book keeping tricks – Credit Bubble blowing.
Want to prevent the bust? Then prevent the Credit Money “boom” that inevitably leads to the bust.
The Federal Reserve, from the very start, does the opposite – it makes the Credit Money bubble vastly BIGGER than it otherwise would have been.
The idea that it restrains the bankers is the opposite of the truth.
Jacob – I agree that an occupation of Iran (although it was done in 1941 – and with no real provocation) is not needed.
What is needed is to destroy the 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard – it is not necessary to kill every single member of the Revolutionary Guard – just to disorganize them, so that they are no longer a deadly threat to the Iranian people.
As for Fraser Orr defending the astonishing ignorance of the former head of Shin Bet concerning Islam – I fear that the only logical reason that Fraser Orr would have to do that, is if he shares this ignorance about the basic principles of Islam. If (if) that is the case – then Fraser Orr will not understand what is happening in Dearborn Michigan, and many other places, let alone the Middle East.
For example, that a follower of M…… is specifically forbidden to have Christians and Jews (and other infidels) as friends, although (yes) they are allowed to PRETEND to be their friends. And that it is duty of a follower of M…….. to help conquer lands presently controlled by infidels (in this the Islamic claim to Tel Aviv is not different from the Islamic claim to New York or anywhere else) and that, if killed in fighting infidels, a follower of M….. goes to paradise and has eternal happiness.
These basic things need to be understood – the former head of Shin Bet clearly did not understand, and, I fear (I hope I am mistaken), Fraser Orr does not understand either.
On top of all this a Shia “12er” of the “hastener” faction ALSO believes that by spreading death over the world (for example by nuclear war) will “hasten” the return of the 12th or “Hidden” Imam.
To call the “hastener” faction a Death Cult is in no way to insult them – it is just an accurate description of who-they-are.
And they are perfectly logical – if one accepts their starting assumptions.
They will seek nuclear weapons – because they want to USE them, in order to “hasten” the return of the return of 12th or “Hidden” Imam.
Dr Gavin Ashenden is NOT a Jew – he is a Christian and is a former chaplain to Queen Elizabeth the Second.
He does not need me to explain any of this to him – he already knows.
It is often, wrongly, said that the CIA overthrew the pro Soviet Prime Minister of Iran in 1953 – in reality the CIA operation failed, it was an internal effort some days after the CIA failure, that succeeded (but certain people in the Agency falsely took the credit).
But it is odd that with all the attacks on the operation of 1953 (a small scale operation – which failed anyway) there are hardly ever any attacks on the operation of 1941 – this really was a Western removal of the Iranian government, and by a full scale military invasion (by British and Soviet forces) in which many Iranians were killed.
Why no condemnation? It is because an objective of the 1941 operation was to secure a supply route to help the Soviet Union?
In the early 1900s (if not before) German academic experts (and academics had more influence in Germany than in any other nation) had identified two long term rivals to Germany in Geopolitics (World Politics) – and, sadly for British pride – Britain (already in relative decline – due to such things as Trade Union activity under the Acts of 1875 and 1906, holding back the improvement of British industry) was not considered a serious long-term rival to Germany.
The two long-term rivals identified were Russia and the United States – both would have to be destroyed if Germany was to dominate the world.
This is NOT to say that all Germans were happy with this objective – but policy was made by a small elite.
@Paul Marks
What is needed is to destroy the 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard
You should call US Military Centcom, because I am sure that has not occurred to them.
As for Fraser Orr defending the astonishing ignorance of the former head of Shin Bet concerning Islam
What I said is he knew more about Israel/Iran relations than you do, which is self evidently true. But this is classic Paul Marks rhetoric — responding to someone for something they didn’t say. You really are the king of the strawman. I didn’t say he is smart, I didn’t say he was a good person, just that he knew a lot more about it than you. Which is almost certainly true unless the public library in Kettering is a lot better than I imagine it to be.
And once again, you confuse what some sects of Islam say and what Muslims actually do. After all, in most Christian sects pre-marital sex is considered a sin, but most of them are doing it like bunnies. Even in places like Iran most people are pretty moderate, it is just the nutjobs at the top (and a of course the nutjobs in the middle too) that actually practice a lot of this stuff. You should get out more and meet some actual Muslims.
We have talked about this many times, but you still trot out the same old tropes as if the guy running the local paki corner shop in Swindon is building a nuclear weapon in his attic.
They guys who run Iran are trying to build a nuclear weapon and I think you are right there is a disturbingly high chance they would use it if they had one. But they are not close, and there are many simpler containment options than what is going on right now. This whole war in Iran is only worth it if they get regime change, and it looks like that has fizzled. Which makes me wonder how well our intelligence services prepared the ground.
But maybe Trump will pull a rabbit out of the hat, maybe the people of Iran will rise up. Let’s air drop crates of M-16s and ammo to help with that. I sure hope something like that works.
Fraser : Did you pump gas lately?
Made me smile. As anyone who has ever sojourned in the UK knows, American gas is effectively free – whatever the oil price.
Though I accept that a high oil price is not going to help the GOP in November. But how much does Trump care ? Anything he wants from the next Congress, he could in principle get from the current one – ie two years funding for the military and Homeland Security, plus a few executive branch appointments. If the current GOP majority wished to provide these, they would. But they don’t. So as far as Trump is concerned it doesn’t really matter who wins the House and Senate in November. You gotta remember – he’s not a Republican. He’s a Trumpie.
@Lee Moore
Made me smile. As anyone who has ever sojourned in the UK knows, American gas is effectively free – whatever the oil price.
That was the good old days. I remember buying gas at a dollar a gallon. Not true now. I had a look at British prices where petrol is £1.57 a litre according to the RA, which is about $7.92 a US gallon. Gas is about $6 in parts of California, maybe about $4 where I live. So cheaper, but not nearly as big a differential as it used to be. Certainly not free.
Anything he wants from the next Congress, he could in principle get from the current one – ie two years funding for the military and Homeland Security, plus a few executive branch appointments.
He hasn’t got anything legislatively from congress really at all. For sure appointments have gone through but they come and go, they won’t fit the “before November” timeline. There is a lot of speculation about some USSC justices resigning to be able to get replacements. Frankly the timeline is very tight to do that this year. Usually they’d resign effective October, and that is not a lot of time to go through the usual circus. This is the senate which they have a much better chance of holding, but unless this thing improves quickly that too could be in jeapordy.
If the current GOP majority wished to provide these, they would. But they don’t. So as far as Trump is concerned it doesn’t really matter who wins the House and Senate in November. You gotta remember – he’s not a Republican. He’s a Trumpie.
You are not correct. If (actually when) the house turns over to the Democrats all we will have for the next two years is investigations, impeachments (not just of Trump, though that is inevitable, but of the many people who loyally work for him), investigations that the media will broadcast as if they were Watergate, enless stuff about Epstein. Trump is pretty much an egomaniac, but he does care about that and he does care about his legacy. And I am also sure that he cares about turning the Whitehouse over to one of his Maga people. That’ll mean Vance of Rubio, which probably means Vance, but he could certainly set that person up to fail. Though one should never underestimate the Democrats ability to fuck up a golden opportunity.
So I really don’t agree. A disaster in November, especially one that takes out the Senate, would be a real cataclysm. Not just for us, but it’ll ripple through the whole world. And, to go back to beating my drum, it is particularly a problem given that we are going through a total revolution in the country with AI and Robots. Watch this space to see if the DOJ under the next Democratic President goes after Elon Musk. I’m sure they can find something to charge him with. They can certainly cripple his companies if they want to. And that? That would be a real disaster, turning over the whole world to China which will be able to win the AI race then.
So it is not a small thing, it is not about Trump. It is a critical time in history and if Trump had stuck to his promises and not done all this foreign policy crap, we would be in an amazing position to launch things. But he didn’t, and it is not good.
I’m confused. (More than usual.)
I remember back when Biden reigned, and we were paying gas prices much higher than I’m seeing today. (Filled up for $3.59/gal today.)
And I remember how it was patiently explained to us proles that gas and oil prices were always excluded from CPI because they were too naturally volatile and capricious. Thus, Biden’s CPI numbers were artificially lowered.
But now, they seem to be back on the CPI menu again?
What did we get with Biden’s sky-high fuel prices? We got the shutdown of our oil industries, mostly.
What do we get with Trump’s smaller gas price rise? We get Iran’s mullahs in little boxes (something I’ve been eager to see since ’79). We get a chance that Iranians can retake their country. We get the possibility of ME peace – free from the gentle predations of the mullahs.
Perfect? No. Much much better? I think so.
One thing that bobby has not mentioned is that the US is now a net exporter of fossil fuels, and therefore many Americans stand to gain from a gas price rise.
Needless to say, many more Americans stand to gain indirectly from this boost to the economy.
I hear that Trump has now said he will extend the “ceasefire” indefinitely, and that the blockade of Iran will be maintained.
This is excellent news. Trump has got lucky. Regime change was unlikely to come from bombing, but when the regime cannot pay is troops any more, the game is over.
It seems that de facto, the IRGC is now in control of Iran. They decided to close the straits to Arab shipping, without seeming to realise that the USA would do the same to them. Now without having to fire any expensive missiles or seize Kharg Island, the USA can strangle the Iranian economy. No need to bomb any bridges or power plants. No need to do anything other than maintain the blockade. Iran has walked into a trap the Americans did not even set.
So long as Trump keeps his nerve, the Iranian regime will collapse. Let’s hope he does.
Now why did he just fire the Navy Secretary?
We get the possibility of ME peace – free from the gentle predations of the mullahs.
I would not bet on that. There was never peace in the ME. Never will be.
Likewise. That said, the world would be a vastly better place if the Islamist government of the Iran fell.
@Snorri Godhi
One thing that bobby has not mentioned is that the US is now a net exporter of fossil fuels, and therefore many Americans stand to gain from a gas price rise.
That is like the lame excuse that we hear for minimum wage laws. “Look if we give all these fast food workers a minimum wage of $25 an hour they will have all this extra money to spend in the economy so we will all be better off!!!”
@bobby b
And I remember how it was patiently explained to us proles that gas and oil prices were always excluded from CPI because they were too naturally volatile and capricious. Thus, Biden’s CPI numbers were artificially lowered.
But that is a stupid rule in government statistics, of course the cost of things are affected by the cost of energy. In fact the cost of gasoline probably affects individual Americans more than almost any other cost raise since it is right in that space of paycheck to paycheck. I certainly said this a lot during the insane Biden years.
What do we get with Trump’s smaller gas price rise? We get Iran’s mullahs in little boxes (something I’ve been eager to see since ’79). We get a chance that Iranians can retake their country. We get the possibility of ME peace – free from the gentle predations of the mullahs.
I hope you are right on the Iranians retaking their country, though there have been no indications of it so far (and given the brutal nature of the regime, fighting for its life, I can certainly understand why people would stay home.) That is the only good outcome I can see. And maybe Jim is right, when the military paychecks stop arriving that’ll be enough to push it over the edge. But Trump has a very limited timeframe too, so who knows. I am not as optimistic as you seem to be BobbyB.
I will be delighted to be proved wrong. What I do care about is getting the hell out of this mess and getting back to what Trump was actually elected to do.
I understand that. But, for me, this IS one of the things I voted for. For various reasons from the past, I hold a strong personal hated for the Iranian tyrants.
And I do tend to be more optimistic about Things Trump. That’s why I go along with the TAW characterization instead of the TACO one.
If you wait long enough, Trump Always Wins. 😉
The best thing that i can say about this (in context, i.e. as a reply to my comment) is that it is not as insane as your opinion that the Iran war is a quagmire.
@Snorri Godhi
is that it is not as insane as your opinion that the Iran war is a quagmire.
I don’t think I said it was a quagmire, I said it is set up to be a quagmire. We can definitely end up there unless something drastic changes. I don’t underestimate Trump, but it is not at all obvious, short of an Iranian revolution, what can fix this mess. And it seems pretty clear to me that they thought this would be a quick win and so did not prepare for what it is turning into.
American casualties, so far, have been very limited – whereas the enemy forces have been largely destroyed, the enemy navy and air force have been largely destroyed.
Now the Revolutionary Guard, all 31 commands, must be disrupted – so it can no longer support the Islamic Republic of Iran regime which has slaughtered so many Iranians, and murdered Americans (and others) around the world.
The Islamic Republic of Iran must not be allowed to develop a shield of drones and missiles behind which it will develop nuclear weapons – nuclear weapons it would USE in order to “hasten” the return of the “Hidden Imam”.
People who think the IRI regime “has America by the balls” are wrong. As for people who would defend the ex head of Shin Bet, who showed (by his own statements) that he did not know the first principles of Islam (sincere Muslims can not be “deterred” as they believe that if they are killed fighting infidels they, the sincere followers of Islam, will go to paradise and have eternal bliss), and was responsible for a total lack of intelligence information from Gaza, who did not notice many thousands of Islamic warriors preparing an attack that killed more Jews than any other attack since the Holocaust, are beyond understanding.
Those who can not, or WILL not, understand even when the basic facts are presented to them, are shoved in front of their nose, are menace not just to themselves but to others – as the former head of Shin Bet tragically showed.
And anyone who thinks that the inhabitants of, say, Dearborn Michigan, are fundamentally different from Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon, are sadly mistaken.
Islam does not just claim a bit of land (about the size of Wales) in the Middle East – Islam claims the world, on the grounds that their God (Allah) created the world – and it, therefore, belongs to the followers of this being. It is the duty of the followers of this philosophy (for example the Deputy Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia) to take this claim and make it stick in practice.
The world would be a nicer place if this was not so – but it is so.
Theres a story floating about that Iran is running out of oil storage capacity – ie production > sales because of blockade. And the geology of Iran’s oilfields is such that stopping production is likely to permanently damage their productive capacity. If true this is a YUUGE Green win. Is there nothing The Donald can’t do ? Expect Greta at the White House gazing at the President with adoring eyes.