We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

A most excellent development

An English anaesthetist has developed a statistical method to spot indications of fraud in medical research.

I fully expect official attempt to unperson this man 😀

4 comments to A most excellent development

  • Patrick Crozier

    Good. Although, I wonder if publishing details of that statistical method might make it easier for fraudsters in future. Also I seem to remember Natalie blogging about the scandal in which sub-postmasters were wrongly convicted of fraud on the basis of statistical analysis. It would be horrible if it turned out that that Japanese guy was telling the truth.

  • bobby b

    “I fully expect official attempt to unperson this man”

    Or, if they’re really mad, they might attempt to unman this person.

  • Clovis Sangrail


    I fully expect official attempt to unperson this man

    Possibly. But not, I think by the journal editors. From what I hear and read, they are desperate to reduce fraud because it’s embarrassing for them.

    Several statisticians have weighed in on the replication crisis, and outright fraud is a part (but not all) of that.

    The rest includes: trawling for small p values (throwing random hypotheses at your data until you find one with a suitably small p-value); inadequate sample size; and low power tests (where the chance of seeing what you’ve seen under the alternative hypothesis/es is comparable to that under the null).

  • Rudolph Hucker

    Re that English anaesthetist

    John Carlisle is a consultant anesthetist at Torbay Hospital on England’s south coast.

    But the Ponderwall article is dated 10 October 2019. Perhaps (we might hope) John Carlisle has applied his techniques to the Covid clinical trials, and results will be released sometime very soon? I also have a flock of pigs ready for a formation fly-past.