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This is how I see it…

The future in Britain is actually quite clear: either Theresa May gets deposed and we get a meaningful Brexit of some kind, or we get Prime Minister Corbyn by a big margin in the next election. It doesn’t matter if you think Brexit is good or bad, or want it to happen or not happen, the Referendum vote was what it was, and that is where we are now.

Corbyn cannot win on his own merits, but Theresa May can hand him victory by making the Tory vote largely implode. Only May can deliver the UK to Corbyn.

The government did not have to hold a referendum, it chose to for several reasons more to do with internal Tory politics than anything else. But it did hold one, and having done so whilst being really quite unambiguous about what the issue was…

… it cannot then effectively ignore the result without delegitimizing not just the party but the British state itself, with serious long term consequences for the very stability of our culture. May must go or a great many even worse things are going to happen, and I hope that is obvious to dispassionate observers on both sides of the actual vote.

42 comments to This is how I see it…

  • Mr Ed

    Mrs May is the hapless Kerensky, having succeeded the inept, self-defenestrated Tsar David. Mrs May knows that Lenin is waiting in the wings, make no mistake: Corbyn and Lenin are political peas in a pod.

    Mrs May calculates that the fear of Lenin/Corbyn means that she can do whatever she wants, neither can her party’s MPs do anything about her, too many are scum who care naught. Nor can their constituents do anything, they can only, in her view, hold their noses and vote for her lot lest Lenin triumph.

    But she is stirring up anger and electoral apathy. Were she running WW2 in Europe, she would have gone for a Breat-Litovsk scale capitulation to Germany in mid-February 1945, such is her loathing of decency.

  • Jacob

    Don’t worry, the EU and mister Junker will save you. They will reject any capitulation plan that May will offer.

  • morsjon

    Whilst I don`t particularly mind the details of May`s plan, what has become abundantly clear is that somebody who believes in the principles of independence and, more importantly, in freedom, needs to be in charge not only of Brexit but of the country. What on earth is the point of leaving if we then choose to opt in to things like the European arrest warrant? May has to go.

  • Don’t worry, the EU and mister Junker will save you. They will reject any capitulation plan that May will offer.

    Yes, that is by no means an implausible scenario. Whilst the Tory Party is indeed the Stupid Party, the European Commission are not exactly MENSA on the Zenne either, so it is entire believable that they could well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory 😆

    But I’d rather not leave that to chance as it is a well known military adage that no plan should be predicated on the cooperation of the enemy.

  • Only one of the two Tory vice-chairs who resigned today was a leaver. The other was a remainer whose stated reasons for resigning included the electoral reality in his constituency.

    I agree with Perry’s long-term analysis but I also see – and hope some Tories can see – a shorter-term problem. Paying the EU a large sum for permission to be still bound by their rules is not an electorally viable approach – even less so because it is specifically paying the EUrocrats (the money is demanded for their pensions, etc.) Perhaps the resigning remainer will not be the only one who can see that.

  • Paul Marks

    Good post and good comments.

    Mrs May promised again-and-again-and-again that she would deliver independence – it is now obvious that the person was lying. Therefore Mrs May must go – or Mrs May will destroy the Conservative Party and, more importantly, destroy the country.

  • Richard Aubrey

    You presume that a sufficient number of people, voters, citizens, and those in a position to make a difference, agree about which things are “worse”.

  • Mr Ecks

    PdeH calls it is exactly right.

    Via Seaman Staines the Imperious Bitch is now forbidding Mutti Merkal to talk to the press about the Chequers sellout. Which she saw before any of us.

    Truly this is now “Carry On Treason”.

    She must be given enough rope to hang herself and twist in the wind. The “Cones Hotline” x 1000.

  • the other rob

    It’s the timing of it all that gets me.

    * The FFC betrays the UK and gets caught asking for Merkel’s OK before putting the sell-out plan to her cabinet.
    * Resignations abound and the 1922 Committee starts doing its sums in earnest.
    * ??? Anything could happen in the next few days.
    * Aaaaannnnd PDT arrives in London.

    Trump might have an opportunity to make a real change to geopolitics. Or he might not. But he’s turning up exactly when it’s on the crux.

    Either he’s the luckiest bloke in the world (for the umpteenth time) or he’s put a some thought and effort into this.

  • Indeed I do presume that Richard. Really a lot of people think Corbyn will destroy the UK & have made the same connection I stated above, so I would not be at all surprised if May gets knifed by the Party over the next few days. I certainly hope so. But hey… politics.

  • Schrodinger's Dog

    It’s pretty obvious Theresa May is planning on toughing this one out.

    My current opinion of the Prime Minister is mostly unrepeatable but, credit where it’s due, she’s a survivor. The next election isn’t due until 2022 and, assuming Jezza is still leader, she’s probably assuming fear of a Corbyn government among the electorate will keep Labour out. As for the no-Brexit Brexit, or BRINO if you prefer, she’s hoping the dust from that will most likely have settled by then. Assuming Brexit doesn’t happen, those of you who are talking betrayal, what are you going to do about it? The only options available at that point have grave consequences. Are you willing to risk your job? Your savings? Your home? Even your liberty? And if you are, what about those around you?

    I’ve long suspected that so long as people have at least a modicum of material comfort – and are also entertained – the government can do pretty much what it likes. It’s a regrettable conclusion, but one I reached witnessing the state’s progressive encroachment on civil liberties with very few protests. I suspect I’m about to find out whether I’m right – although I very much hope I’m not.

  • Itellyounothing

    By the time PDT arrives, we will be presenting a petition to become the USA’s newest state with Liz as Governor……

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker) Gray

    If ‘Traitor’ May is disposed, who would be the best Brexiter to replace her? Should Britain go for a HARD or soft Brexit? And who can supply it?

  • Mr Ecks

    Sdog–Corbin is next up chum. May isn’t going to tough it out because she is thick as pigshit. Two years of blank lying and then a brazen sellout during which she just can’t resist humiliating the Brexit supporters in her Cabinet. She could have had a lot less trouble by not doing that but she is too nasty a cunt. She will have to crawl to the EU and come back with even more demands for surrender and sellout.

    We also now have a brazen govt who openly does not give a flying fuck what the electors of this country want.

    Remember the plans the bitch has:

    * 6 years jail for say anything nasty about the RoP
    * criminalise being not nice to political scum
    * The internet more controlled and censored than China
    and on and on

    We are heading towards open dictatorship.

    Nor is she some kind of Pinochet, tyrant or not, who brought freer markets and prosperity to Chile. All we can look forward to is more and worse EU stagnation and collapse. And pay £40 billion for the “privilege” on top.

    Also remember that the EU and the Remainiacs will be laughing in our faces constantly about how we won and their bitch took it all back off us again. If she is there in 2022 I will vote for Corbog myself because I would literally see this island sink into the sea before I will let remain triumph by trickery after they lost fair and square.

    We must not rush, as a failed challenge to her “leadership” would give her 12 months before she can be challenged again. But she is now a lame duck everywhere outside the Westminster bubble. Let her swing in the wind and be obliged to kiss the EU’s arse even more.

  • The problem is that May is more solidly concreted in than Kerensky, with a lot more in the way of defences (Kerensky had very little he could call upon when things got tough).

  • Mr Ecks

    NUJ Gray–No deal it is and bollocks to soft Brexits. Isn’t the present fiasco enough for you?

  • I am as one with the intemperate Mr.Ecks, either May goes or even I, with plunderable assets and so much to lose, would rather see Corbyn than vote for the Tories. At this stage talk of ‘treason’ is not unreasonable.

  • Mr Ecks

    Hector Drummond–You will be amazed how quickly the “concrete” around May becomes frangible once the PCP realises that support for her will bring on Jizza not stave him off.

    They face bad prospects. Such as being out of work and on their own resources in a bleak Marxist Britain. Where there will be very few or no companies able to offer the lucrative post-HoC one-day-a-week jobs and directorships that ex-MPs seem to find with relative ease today. There will be state jobs galore for ZaNu of course. But a party whose next leader–McNasty- says he wants to see Tories hanged isn’t going to be handing those out to BluLabour. Regardless of how much ZaNu will owe BluLbour for giving them their big break. Again.

  • Ecks, yes, the concrete can be collapsed with the right approach, and it looks like that is starting to happen.

  • terence patrick hewett

    @Schrodinger’s Dog

    So all that Adolf had to do in 1940 was to say “give up or you’ll lose a few quid” I think you underestimate the Brits.

  • bob sykes

    Whoever the PM might be when Trump visits, he should propose a trade union with the US. That would greatly assuage the pain of Brexit.

    But maybe Britain deserves Corbyn.

  • Letters in the ‘Daily Torygraph’ today trend very hostile to May, and the paper tells us (are they perhaps eager we should know?) that those they received trended that way far more so than those they published. Partly this is because, for breadth of view, they included a letter on the other side (instead of, one might assume, including a single alphabetical letter from it to suggest the statistical ratio), but also because they did not publish any of the letters that accused her of treason, pointing out that, in a technical legal sense, that was not the case.

    I am as one with the intemperate Mr Ecks (Perry de Havilland (London), July 11, 2018 at 9:32 am

    🙂 It is sad the way our country’s traditional standards are falling. If May does not go soon, the Daily Telegraph may be driven to print a letter from Mr Ecks. 🙂 (Or one that makes Mr Ecks look temperate.)

  • Patrick

    I have invented a new moniker for the newly arriving Dominic Raab’s department: Deprexeu (Department for pretending to exit the EU). Seems about right for where we have arrived at.

  • Runcie Balspune

    The government did not have to hold a referendum, it chose to for several reasons more to do with internal Tory politics than anything else.

    They chose to do it because of the UKIP tank parked on their lawn.

    Cameron won decisively because he chose the policy, it’s what people fail to see, this vote was more than just the referendum, it was the continuous pressure and determination to get it in place, it took a long time.

    In a vision I see May deposed, the Tories implode, Corbyn comes to power by a whisker, he implements a hard Brexit (because he’s spent the last 30 years wanting to do it and has the excuse of the referendum vote to show his pro-democracy credentials), and get knifed by his own party, and we possibly go back to a coalition that can’t do anything.

  • Philippe Hermkens

    Just read eureferendum.com to understand that an immediate Free Trade Aerea with the EU is simply impossible
    Why ? Because the Single Market allows a free flow of goods through the border without any control. These controls are made internally and not at the border because you have inside the EU a regulatory union. The EU will not abandon that because UK is leaving ..

    For the rest, good luck with a antisemite Marxist as Prime Minister. Good luck with a halt to exports to the EU

  • mickc

    The Conservative party has always been what it is now; a pretence of seeking peace and prosperity for the people of the UK, whilst in fact seeking power and wealth for the very few who really govern.
    It was only Thatcher who actually sought to “free the people” to let them live and seek prosperity as they wished. The Lady was not a Conservative; like Trump and indeed Corbyn, she was not meant to win and become leader. They were all just meant to be a pleasing sideshow for us children.
    Even if May goes, the Conservatives cannot win the next election. Corbyn can, and will. He may be just what is needed to bring real change to British politics. His economic policies will fail, Socialism always does, but he can be a catalyst for the destruction of the current endemic Blairism.

  • […] the recent Brexit-related shenanigans, it seems appropriate to post this quote from former leader of the Liberal Democrats Paddy Ashdown, […]

  • Mr Ecks

    “Even if May goes, the Conservatives cannot win the next election”

    If they make it clear May’s treachery is out and put in a strong Brexiteer and do a strong–No Deal is fine–Brexit–They can. But people must see that remainiac betrayal is finished as a force amongst them.

  • Even if May goes, the Conservatives cannot win the next election

    I disagree completely. If May is gone and Brexit actually happens meaningfully, I think it is highly likely the Tories will win big. I see it as pretty much an all or nothing situation.

  • Even if May goes, the Conservatives cannot win the next election. (mickc, July 11, 2018 at 9:58 pm)

    That’s the exact opposite of the reality I see – and hope Tories will see. Only if May goes can the Conservatives win the next election.

    I have been assuming (a la “the stupid party, yes, – but surely not that stupid”) that they already knew that and had not been planning to keep her until 2022 anyway – as in “I will stay as long as you want me to”.

    Of course we are all of us – even here, I fear – apt to attribute more sense to politics than it has.

  • DICKUS

    May would rather see Corbyn in number 10 that see a proper Brexit ,Corbyn is a rabid statist like many in Brussels .

  • Paul Marks

    The idea that Mrs May is what is preventing Mr Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and setting up a People’s Republic of Britain is, as Perry and others know, absurd.

    It is precisely Mrs May who is making the rise to power of Mr Corbyn and his Comrades more likely – more likely by the day. To defeat Mr Corbyn we must defeat Mrs May.

  • Bulldog Drumond

    To defeat Mr Corbyn we must defeat Mrs May.

    That’s exactly it.

  • I think President Trump has been doing all he can today to sink your dreadful PM. The words I use to describe her in private cannot be printed here, I’m sure, so I’ll refrain. She’s just awful, and I’ve hated her since she stabbed Trump and the U.S and Israel in December 2016.

    It is my fervent hope that before too long, and preferably before President Trump leaves the UK, a leadership challenge is made, though if I understand what Mogg and others are saying, waiting a bit may yield better results, so perhaps… waiting would be best. After today I think it should be clear that May cannot stay, and your Conservative party should boot her.

    This yank’s questions:

    Is it true that if the PM loses her party’s confidence a new GE is needed? I thought only if the PM lost Parliament’s confidence. After all, when Cameron quit, no GE took place… Perhaps it’s customary to call a GE upon a leadership challenge?? But presumably you first pick a new PM, then call a GE? Have the district boundaries been redrawn yet? Will the new boundaries be in effect for the next GE, even if it takes place eight or ten weeks from now?

    May May disappear into a hole of history, never to be thought much about again, much less heard from.

    Her disasters:

    – Stabbing Trump, the U.S., and Israel in December 2016. Lame duck Presidents don’t do what Obama did, and U.S. allies should not play U.S. domestic politics by taking advantage of a lame duck President’s attempts to sabotage his successor! No matter how May felt about Israel, she knew this was playing dirty and she should have told Obama that the UK would veto that resolution (then Obama would have caused the resolution to be pulled, and the veto would have been averted). May there be a hell, and may May rot in it over this.

    – Calling a GE and running a disastrous campaign.

    – Her royal pettiness at Checkers.

    – Liam fucking Fox.

    – Amber fucking Rudd and her current successor.

    – Phillip fucking Hammond.

    – That idiotic deal with Merkel.

    – Not foreseeing what a disaster softest Brexit would be for her government.

    – The timing of this Checkers idiocy. If she were even remotely a decent politician she’d a) not have done this at all, b) not have done it days before President Trump’s visit. You’d think she’d know by now that he’s going to speak his mind and the truth, and if the truth of her actions isn’t pretty then she’ll be utterly exposed. Now she can’t even kick him out of the UK. She has to suffer his truth bombs, each of which hastens her fall. May Trump hurry up and speak more truth. Maybe he should start talking about a Dream Team for the UK: Boris, Mogg, Davis, maybe even Farage (just to tweak you all and push May’s order to not talk to Farage). For good measure he should hold meetings with them — No. 10 would chafe and hate that, but they have no power to stop it. Normally a visiting head of State cannot and does not attempt to cause the host’s government to fall, but also normally visiting heads of State are not kept from talking to the opposition.

    – Her utter inability to say anything of substance. It’s all platitudes all the fucking way. That should have been the tip on the clue you all needed to know she’s a useless liar who did not mean to implement Brexit.

    – Her inability to bring Sadiq Khan to heal.

    – Her hatred of civil liberties. Her tenure as Home Secretary under Cameron should have been a tip on a clue, shouldn’t it have. Bastard she is.

    May the UK find its way.

  • Biffa Bacon

    Where in the referendum question did it stipulate that Brexit had to be Hard Brexit?

  • May would rather see Corbyn in number 10 that see a proper Brexit ,Corbyn is a rabid statist like many in Brussels .

    That’s because she’s on the other side, innit. She’s your fifth column.

    The idea that Mrs May is what is preventing Mr Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and setting up a People’s Republic of Britain is, as Perry and others know, absurd.

    It is precisely Mrs May who is making the rise to power of Mr Corbyn and his Comrades more likely – more likely by the day. To defeat Mr Corbyn we must defeat Mrs May.

    If May is gone and Brexit actually happens meaningfully, I think it is highly likely the Tories will win big. I see it as pretty much an all or nothing situation.

    Yes, but I’m told that customarily, replacing the party leader and PM entails calling a general election. Is that so? If so, does that allow much authority and time for the new party leader to effect real Brexit before the GE? I would think not, but what do I know of British politics…
    May will certainly sink the Tories if she stays. Tossing her out won’t guarantee victory, but it can’t hurt. If you can replace her, make Brexit hard and tell the EU to stuff it, then call a GE, you might win it.

  • Biffa:

    Where in the referendum question did it stipulate that Brexit had to be Hard Brexit?

    It didn’t. But Brexit did have to be meaningful. That meant a number of things, not the least of which was that new EU laws and regulations could not apply without Parliament approving them, and that UK-EU trade would not have to be contingent on the UK adopting new EU laws and regulations. But instead what May proposed was: no representation for the UK at the EU, but the UK would have to abide all EU laws and regulations, even new ones, while also paying a monstrous exit fee. In fact, May did no substantive negotiation whatsoever, and she ignored her own Brexit ministers.

    Brexit could have been softer than just hard Brexit, but by going for Softest Brexit she ensured that only Hard Brexit can now happen (IF the party can bring itself to do the right thing and toss her).

    In any case, the whole show she put up at Checkers will -I imagine anyways- live in infamy in British political history. I imagine such a stunt will not be mounted again for centuries.

  • For the rest, good luck with a antisemite Marxist as Prime Minister. Good luck with a halt to exports to the EU

    Are you referring to May or Corbyn? I can’t tell anymore.

  • bobby b

    “But Brexit did have to be meaningful.”

    No, it didn’t. I said this on another thread, but it might be more applicable here:

    The question as posed:

    “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

    The options:

    – Remain a member of the European Union
    – Leave the European Union

    The joy of referendums is picking language that both informs voters of what you’re really asking, and contains an adequate directive so that the vote accomplishes what you want to accomplish in a legal sense. This is much harder than it looks. It didn’t happen here.

    As a simple and everyday matter of legal interpretation, you could satisfy this referendum vote above in a number of ways, one of which being to remove the UK from the list of member nations of the EU but leave it subject to all of the EU laws and regs – which is essentially May’s proposal.

    You can certainly argue that the spirit of the constituency’s vote was otherwise – that people were contemplating a hard Brexit – and I think you’d have the stronger moral argument.

    But this is going to be a legalistic, technical argument. I think you got played by the parliamentarians.

  • Nico

    @bobby b Yeah, Brexit did have to be meaningful. That the language of the referendum didn’t specify how meaningful, and that the referendum was non-binding, don’t matter because the Conservative party was in power, they called the referendum, and they then had to abide by the result or lose the next general election. The particular range of meaning that Brexit could have was and is: that which would not cause the Tories to lose the next GE, and the specifics of that were and are up to the PM and her cabinet. It seems that May picked the wrong particulars, and it’s looking pretty dicey for the Tories now, and everyone knows it.

    So, yeah, Brexit did have to be meaningful in practice. Even May agreed, though she was a Remainer, and we can all see now that she’s dyed-in-the-wool at that. You might disagree, but it’s the opinion of the PM and Parliament’s that counts here, and now, her challengers’ also. When the history is written this question will be like the question of whether American States can legally leave the Union (spoiler: only with approval of the union or by winning a war; further spoiler: such approval cannot be had). That there were Remainers will be recorded, but almost as a footnote.

  • Mr Ed

    The relative quiet from Conservative MPs is alarming, David Davis seems to be looking at Mrs May and his successor as if he had the Bobby Fuller Four’s Let Her Dance in mind, a ‘break-up but never mind’ song. Perhaps this is a slow-cooked stew rather than a fry-up.

    The choice of leaving the EU was simply the restoration of the status quo ante before the passage of the European Communities Act 1972, i.e. the UK as a sovereign nation.

  • Philippe Hermkens

    For me whatever her many travails, notably on the civil liberties side, Theresa May is not Marxist and antisemite .She is a soft spoken socialist. And she believed in international organisations to rule the world