It seems to me that for Iran to use the Straits to squeeze the rest of the world into acquiescing into its brutality is a ploy that brings diminishing returns. Given that oil can be piped as well as shipped via a tanker, construction of more pipelines to take the stuff – and gas – over land rather than via sea seems screamingly obvious. Sure, pipelines can be attacked and that creates issues around security. Even so, the key is to have options. I have heard it said that one reason behind the Hamas Oct 7 attacks was that Iran wanted to stymie a pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would, as part of it, include a cross-region pipeline or set of pipelines (maybe with the oil reaching the Mediterranean coast in Israel).
As conflict between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran effectively shutters the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has activated a 45-year-old contingency plan to bypass the blockaded waterway and keep global crude markets afloat. The centerpiece of this strategy is the East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer artery that transports crude from the kingdom’s eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Long considered a redundant relic of the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, the line is now the primary exit point for Saudi exports.
State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco has rapidly reoriented its logistical center of gravity toward the west due to the lingering threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Even if the Straits retain some value, that is going to erode and fast in the next few years, is my guess.
And this whole saga also highlights the truth of a quote attributed to an American fracker business executive, who is supposed to have said that these folk are not just extracting more oil and gas, but are helping to save Western civilisation. Whoever that was, he or she wasn’t exaggerating.
As of the time of going to press, President Trump has announced a two-week ceasefire. I worry that this gives Iran breathing space – I don’t think the region will be sorted out until or unless the regime in Tehran is overthrown, although this needs, ultimately, to come from Iranians themselves.
That said, it is worth taking stock of what has happened in terms of the loss of military power in Iran, including its ability to make nukes. That’s not a trivial achievement. And the world – including China – has had a good look at the impressiveness of the US and Israeli air forces and special forces. It has, to be fair, also had a good look at the parlous state of the UK’s military, particularly its pitiful navy.
We will have to see if the straits are really reopened – with no “tolls” or other such from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The international media are celebrating the “victory” of the Islamic Republic of Iran tyranny (which has slaughtered vast numbers of Iranian civilians – and killed many other innocent people, around the world) – the coverage of the BBC, “France 24” and so so, has shocked even me – and I did not think my opinion of the “liberal” (they are not really liberals at all – not in the sense that say President Grover Cleveland or President Calvin Coolidge would have accepted) could fall any lower – but it has.
To side with the IRI tyranny, out of hatred of “Trump”, shows what utter scum the international establishment (not just the “liberal” media – the general establishment) are.
I don’t think China needs to worry about Britain’s naval strength. Why sail all the way from Hainan to Blighty when a few million spent on bribes and blackmail will get you everything you could want from Britain?
I remember reading decades ago that UAE was trying to drum up support for a trans-Omani-Penisula pipeline. Direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the nutters.
If Copenhagan blocks The Baltic, just build the Kiel Canal.
Why sail all the way from Hainan to Blighty when a few million spent on bribes and blackmail will get you everything you could want from Britain?
True. In Sir Keir Starmer and his Chancellor and the rest of them, China does v. nicely: The Chagos farce, a new embassy in London with all kinds of nifty facilities, continued surveillance and influence in the UK, having a government unwilling to complain about the outrageous jailing of Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong (now a British citizen), and big export of Chinese EVs to the West and all that implies.