“It is likely that the central bank will assist/require the banks to provide the same interest rates and terms on replacement Scottish pound mortgages and loans as you had on your old sterling ones.”
– Dr Tim Rideout, from an article in the National with the title “How a Scottish currency will impact mortgages and other loans”.
Dr Rideout, who was let back into the Scottish National Party after agreeing to undergo anti-racism training, is a member of the SNP’s Policy Development Committee and Convener of that party’s Scottish Currency Group. He is fully entitled to refer to himself as “Dr Rideout”, since he has a doctorate. He is also entitled to call himself an economist, as he has a BA in economics. He is “Dr Rideout, Economist” just like he says, and if you got the impression from that that his doctorate was in economics, that’s your fault for not checking. Same as it is your own silly fault if you got the impression that the website featuring his writings with the URL https://www.reservebank.scot/, bearing the title “SCOTTISH RESERVE BANK/ Banca Cùl-stòr na h’Alba”, and including on its front page the words “Welcome to Scotland’s Central Bank” was the website of an official body called “the Scottish Reserve Bank”. If you thought that the splendid neoclassical building in the first picture, which features in many photographs and paintings of Edinburgh, was the bank because of all those pillars, more fool you. A simple reverse image search would have told you that it was the disused Edinburgh Royal High School. Dr Rideout (Economist) cannot be held responsible for your inability to use Google. In any case, the website does say, “Please note, the Scottish Reserve Bank is not legally a bank.” Where? Right there, in the paragraph at the bottom of the “About” page, just before the bit where it says, “Website by Great-Value-Websites.Com”. It was your job to read every word of every page in full.
After all that, readers might think I planned to cast doubt upon Dr Rideout’s prediction that “It is likely that the central bank will assist/require the banks to provide the same interest rates and terms on replacement Scottish pound mortgages and loans as you had on your old sterling ones”, or his prediction that “Your bank will contact you near the time and ask if you would like to change your mortgage into the Scottish pound or take out new Scottish pound credit cards and loans.”
Perish the thought. Several of the replies to Dr Rideout’s tweet (or “X-cretion” as I believe they are meant to be called now) in which he flags up his piece in the National do point out that the banks would be insane to do any of these things, but a little thing like that does not invalidate his prediction.
If Scottish independence comes to pass while the Scottish National Party is in power then you can bet that the Scottish government will indeed assist/require the banks to pretend the new currency is equal in value to the old. History is full of governments making insane declarations about the value of their currency and requiring, sorry, assisting, their citizens to impoverish themselves by acting as if the fantasies were truth.
As Dr Rideout says himself,
When the Central Bank tells the commercial banks to jump, the only answer is ‘how high Sir?’.
If that works, I’m calling my mortgage guy and changing my US dollar debt to monopoly money debt. Easier to pay off!
Kind of like how Dr. Jill Biden’s doctorate becomes a whole lot less impressive once you learn it is in education. A doctorate in education is a diploma mill kind of a degree, that requires almost no real research or studying and is merely a “check the boxes while we cash your tuition check” degree designed entirely so school administrators and people with ego issues can hang their diploma on their office walls.
W.E.B. Du Bois, she ain’t.
Don’t forget that many – most? – US public school teachers are paid on a Step program – earn more credits, take more seminars, and (for the really big jumps) earn that next degree, and you move up the union-established scale. Many of my dad’s teacher friends went for master’s and doctorate degrees – FT in the summers! – just because their pay would rise so much and so quickly. Those ed-docs were numerous.
Bobby
A couple of years ago I was told by my niece, a qualified, competent and successful teacher on both sides of the pond following her emigration, that in order to progress her career and earnings to vice principal level she required what both of us saw as an meaningless additional diploma.
However the cost (of the tuition) benefit (seniority and earnings) analysis was compelling even though the course was otherwise worthless.
However did a post about the fantasies of the SNP suddenly become a thread about the shortcomings – no doubt many – of the US education system?
Peter, it veered off because of this line:
As near as I can tell, Dr. Rideout’s PhD is in Economic Geography, something I have never heard of before, and I was comparing it to DOCTOR Jill Biden’s amazing academic accomplishment (NEVER forget to call her doctor because she earned that esteemed degree in the field of education and didn’t just get it in a box of Cracker Jack). Even then I had to hunt for Dr. Rideout’s CV and the best I could come up with after a grueling 20 or 25 seconds in the Google mines was from here:
So, mea culpa.
This guy calls himself a reverend as a sort of in joke at his blog. He bought the title online from a US church if I remember correctly.
The scottish seem to have some interesting contradictory positions on stuff. Wanting independence from the UK but not from the EU. Now wanting their own currency while still wanting to rejoin the EU which would require them to adopt the Euro.
Peter MacFarlane,
One can never tell where Samizdata comment threads will go. I think the common thread in this case was “unelected but influential people close to the leaders of political parties being happy to give a misleading impression of the relevance of their qualifications”.
Stonyground writes, “The scottish seem to have some interesting contradictory positions on stuff. Wanting independence from the UK but not from the EU. Now wanting their own currency while still wanting to rejoin the EU which would require them to adopt the Euro.”
Not so much “The scottish” as “the Scottish National Party”. It is sometimes forgotten that in the referendum of 2014 more Scots voted against Scottish independence than for it. Polls since then suggest that another referendum were held today the result would be the same. The reason the SNP dominates Westminster and Holyrood parliamentary elections is that the Unionist vote is split.
Regarding your guy, was his paraphrase of the bishop who spoke on Thought for the Day meant to suggest that the bishop was saying something ridiculous when he said that his version of religion was nothing like the Taliban? The bish was right. His version of religion is nothing like the Taliban. The absurdity lies in suggesting that the difference between a bishop of the Church of England (particularly a Guardian-reading, same-sex-marriage-supporting bishop like Walker) and the Taliban is unimportant because they both believe in God. It’s like saying the difference between libertarianism and communism is unimportant because they are both political ideologies.
Point taken and fair enough really.
The SNP’s wriggling around the currency issue is because most of the lazier pro-“indepedence” types don’t know that to join the EU you must adopt the Euro. So the Nats try to generate as much smoke as they can, to leave the impression that something resembling the Pound would/could still be used in a separate Scotland, and the horses can then remain un-frightened.
It’s nonsense, but they hope people don’t notice.
“was his paraphrase of the bishop who spoke on Thought for the Day meant to suggest that the bishop was saying something ridiculous when he said that his version of religion was nothing like the Taliban?”
I don’t know, you could go there and ask him to clarify. He seems to be an affable sort of bloke and the discussions there seem to stay civil even when disagreeing.
Stonyground: “The Scottish seem to have some interesting contradictory positions on stuff. Wanting independence from the UK but not from the EU. Now wanting their own currency while still wanting to rejoin the EU which would require them to adopt the Euro.”
Indeed.
We’ll fix you, you Sassenachs! Instead of being entangled in a larger entity where we represent only about eight percent of the population, we’ll entangle ourselves in an even larger entity where we represent a mere one percent of the population.
Also, there are a few member countries in the EU who might not be all that enthusiastic about admitting a successful separatist state. It sets a bad precedent. An independent Catalonia in the EU, anyone? Spain might have a view on that.
This new Scottish “money” would be no worse than the “money” that the United Kingdom, and all other countries, already push.
Neither the British Pound the American Dollar or any other Western currency have any link with gold, silver, or (indeed) any commodity – as “Nobel Prize Winning Economist” (Alfred Nobel never created a prize for economics – but let that slide) Paul Krugman openly boasted (yes boasted – the lunatic thinks it is a good thing) the only foundation of the monetary and financial system is “men-with-guns” – taxes and legal tender laws. The money is entirely fiat (fiat means “command”, “order”) it is based on the threat of violence and nothing else – no commodity at all, not gold, not silver, NOTHING.
So all the people sneering at this Scottish “economist” need to get an ugly truth into your heads.
We already have his insane system – it is the monetary and financial system right now. In the United Kingdom and every other major nation.
“But his system would collapse” – of course it would, and so will ours, because it is the same system.
It is dispiriting to see people laughing at the insane monetary system of this Scottish “economist” – without people realising it is the insane fiat money system we-already-have, in the United Kingdom, the United States and all other major nations.
This system is going to end badly, very badly indeed.
And what is the intrinsic value of gold? Why does it represent a base for currency any more than cowrie shells?
Around 40% of Scottish Nationalists still support Independence outside both the UK and the EU (the “oot, ooters”), but have been threatened with expulsion if they don’t shut up and toe the party line of “Scottish Independence WITHIN the EU”, which is as nonsensical a position as it is possible to have, since there are no independent countries within the EU.
The point about EU accession criteria mandating the adoption of the Euro, were Scotland to join the EU is carefully glossed over as being unhelpful to the Independence issue (ie. It would cause votes for Independence to plummet).
The same is true of both the Scottish deficit problem (Scotland having a deficit gap of £9 billion today, with the likelihood of widening after Independence) and the Scottish debt problem (at least 5% and probably more of the UK’s sovereign debt should be passed onto Scotland at Independence).
Given all of the above, a vote for Scottish Independence is a vote to pauperize those that don’t flee Scotland at Independence.
No doubt that is another aspect of Scottish Independence that is “unhelpful” to obtaining a Yes vote at a referendum.
It is worth pointing out that the last time Scotland had its own money was 1707. During the act of Union, Scottish money was replaced by sterling at a rate of 12 pound Scots to 1 pound sterling. So we aren’t tweaking the edges here.
When the Central Bank tells the commercial banks to jump, the only answer is ‘how high Sir?’.
No, they actually have one other answer they can give — “Go f**k yourself, we are taking our ball and going home.” More likely, in the lead up to actual independence, with bold statements by the psycho Scottish government in waiting, most banks would have slunk out long before the time that it became an issue.
If I were resident in Scotland post Indy, I’d keep my money in an English bank and use an English credit card. You’d be insane not to. The reason that the exchange rate was 12:1? Because of the thorough debasement of the Scottish pound by government profligacy and all out theft.
Though in fairness, given the state of English banking, I might instead keep my money in Krugerrands under the floorboards.
It wasn’t the Scottish government that in 2020 created c. £400,000,000,000 out of thin air to fund the Covid terror, it was the UK government. Comparing a notional sovereign Scottish central bank with the abysmal record of the Bank of England (and yes, there was the Darien scheme of pre-Union Scotland) is like comparing someone falling to Earth from the stratosphere with a wing suit and another with a tangled parachute. Neither is going to end well, but one looks worse than the other.
The population of Scotland is 8% of the UK total and they get 25% more state spending per head, so I reckon the People’s Republic of Scotland can take on 10% of the nation debt, £250 billion.
Only because they had UK to fund their covid terror, which they imposed with glee. And they’d have gone far further given the chance.
@Mr Ed
It wasn’t the Scottish government that in 2020 created c. £400,000,000,000 out of thin air to fund the Covid terror,
Because they didn’t have the legal authority to do so. Had they, you can be sure they’d have done much worse. Just because one thing is bad, doesn’t mean something else can’t be worse. The pound today buys the same amount of gold as 10p did 20 years ago. However, for the Argentinian Peso today you can buy for one peso less less than you could with 1 centavo twenty years ago.
All in all, which is why I suggest those Krugerrands. If we could do that and do our currency transactions in bitcoin we’d be in much better shape very quickly, which is of course why they’ll never let us do it. The idea of a central bank digital currency is utterly terrifying.
Same here in Western Canada; throughout the West, the triple-damned teachers’ unions have ensured members can get large, regular pay raises just by taking some hilarious courses in, like, Whole Child Anti-Bully Gender Structure. Credentialism is evil enough when it’s just about narcissists seeking post-surname acronyms; it’s much worse when (my) real money is involved
For my part in that, it was driven by my new appreciation for Doctor Rideout, who has apparently cleared the way for my new form of address as “Doctor bobby, Economist and Geologist.” Professional growth is a wonderful thing, especially when it occurs so quickly!
rhoda klepp – gold, like silver and other materials, is a physical commodity with both practical uses and subjective economic value in the eyes of ordinary people (due to its perceived beauty and physical characteristics), no one regards the lights on computer screens (which is all most modern “money” is) as having any voluntary value – its “value” is entirely based on force-and-fear, legal tender laws and tax demands, Professor Krugman’s “men with guns”.
Aa for “cowrie shells” – I can think of severe practical problems with using them as money, but they would be better than a monetary and financial system based on the threat of violence.
We already have a monetary system akin to “Monopoly money” – except that it is “Monopoly money” based on the threat of violence from Professor Krugman’s “men with guns”.
The present monetary and financial (banking) system, of so many nations, can not be honestly defended, it is both morally evil and practically absurd.
The question is not “will it collapse?” (of course it will collapse), the questions is “when will it collapse?”
Paul:
When Nixon ended the dollar’s link to gold in 1971, I think it became a bit like Wile E. Coyote when he runs off the edge of a cliff. For a while he stays there, running in the air, until he looks down and plunges to the earth below.
So far the dollar has done surprisingly well in defying gravity and maintaining its status as the world’s reserve currency, even though it is now just a piece of paper backed by nothing (apart from those men with guns). I agree the end is bound to come, I just wish I knew when it will happen, but no-one knows that.
Dear Paul,
Not wanting to argue but just curious, who do you see as the “men with guns” behind bitcoin or other private cryptos?
Colli – I have never made any such claim, indeed Professor Krugman, and his beloved men-with-guns (I repeat Professor Krugman is not denouncing the present system – he loves the force and fear) hates BitCoin.
I have never been a great fan of Bitcoin – but I hope you are not accusing me of saying that Bitcoin is based on tax demands and legal tender laws, as it is NOT.
JohnK.
Yes – and very well put Sir.
But I will stick my neck out and give a date as to when I think the fiat money system will come to an end – my opinion is that it will come to an end in the year 2025.
The present American Administration will never admit that the fiat system, both the Dollar and the WEF digital currency that is planned to replace it, is a failure – they would (quite literally) rather have people starving to death in the streets than admit that fiat money is a failure
But the next Administration, which comes into Office on January 20th 2025, can blame the previous Administration for the failure of fiat money.
2025 will be the 90th Anniversary of the infamous Supreme Court decisions of 1935 where the court, 5 votes to 4, de facto decided that it was fine for the American government to steal privately owned gold, and to retrospectively “void” all gold clauses in contracts – public and private
As one of the Justices said in his dissent – if the government can steal the gold of private people (and, by the same principle, steal anything else the people have) and if the government can, retrospectively, tear up all contracts (public and private) that it does not like, then to say that the United States of America has “the rule of law” and is a “limited government Constitutional Republic” is a LIE.
As for “anti racism” training and so on – Natalie is quite correct, the Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve – and so on) are doing all this Frankfurt School of Marxism stuff already – and the banks and other “capitalist” corporations are falling over themselves to help destroy the cultural foundations of “capitalist” society – if it was not so tragic, it would be funny.
So an “independent Scotland” with its own funny money (no more absurd than the Pound, Dollar and so on) would just be more-of-the-same.
Why do people go along with the American Corporate State “justice system”? The reason is that it is ruthless against people who go against the regime – against “the system” (which is what not just Democrats, but also “RINOs” are loyal to – RINOs such as former Attorney General Bill Barr – a person whose first thought when someone is murdered on his watch is how-can-we-cover-this-up so that trust in “the system” is not undermined).
Why do some people ritually humiliate themselves begging for mercy for the “crime” of opposing an obviously rigged election (after the courts made it horribly clear that they did not care that the election was rigged) – ritually humiliate themselves begging for mercy that they KNOW they will not receive? The answer is simple and brutal – because if you do not go along with the Show Trial (go along with the charade – “I am filled with remorse”, “the regime is totally just – the elections are free and fair” and on and on) they may well GO AFTER YOUR FAMILY – it will not just be you in prison, being raped and tortured, it will be your loved ones as well.
The Corporate State depends on credit money – in the United States and elsewhere, it will fall with it.
By the way – I am listening to Neil Oliver give his weekly talk on GB News, this week he is covering these matters, money, governments, banks, international “governance” (Agenda 21 and all that) – his talk is rather good.