Just heard from someone in Turkey… looks like there is a coup d’etat under way. Interesting.
LATEST: seems they have not grabbed Ergodan, so it remains to be seen if the coup will be successful.
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You just got back from Istanbul. Coincidence? Hmmm? I think some of those cats did look kinda conspiratorial.
The Guardian has a live thread here, Reddit live thread here.
Tanks in the streets, I hear.
And I’m supposed to have a stopover there this Thursday…
Who was it who visited Turkey the other day?
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer goat defiler.
Hopefully it will transpire that Erdogan’s purge of the military some years ago was not a guarantee that he would not be kicked out of office for being a twat. I wonder if he’ll end up hanging from a lamppost?
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy than Recep Erdogan, who is currently holed up somewhere.
They obviously heard that Boris was coming…
lol
Erdogan has had all pigeons shot for staging a ‘coo’.
Of course! You were giving us a clue! I blame TRUMP! đ
It looks (to me) like the coup has succeeded.
BBC are bleating to the effect that it is a minor barracks quarrel, Air Force and Gendarmerie only involved.
However someone on SkyNews is claiming the coup is a done deal, but I guess we will not know until tomorrow most likely.
Breitbart reports that the Turkish military are already drafting a new constitution.
If that is so, then Mrs May really is farting about over Brexit!
Also:
So Boris is sorting out the traffic to British-style.
A political entity, born of a coup, that includes “Peace” in its name is worthy of suspicion, even if the coup turns out to be substantially bloodless.
Marcher: Not Trump, climate change is responsible. Get with the program, man!
Erdogan is reported as being out of the country on holiday. Might be a permanent holiday.
BBC says that Erdogan is on holiday in Marmaris, i.e. in Turkey. So will the Capricorn One make it through the night?
Ooooh! A civil disturbance. There WILL be refugees and guess where they are heading … and bringing the Syrian “refugees” with them too.
Spain joined the EEC 5 years after Tejero’s semi-comic putsch.
Funny when a military is a more of a check on politicians in Turkey than a constituion is on politcians in the USA.
The great thing about Marmaris is that if Erdogan can be forced to flee then Crete and Cyprus are within relatively short flying range.
Once an autocrat is forced to flee, they sometimes return, but not often.
Have to see what the opposition to the coup is. If it is sporadic or concentrated in specific areas then the coup leaders might be able to contain it.
Secondly is the question of who the coup leaders are and what they represent. If they are Kemalists (Turkish Secularists), then this is probably a good thing as they will look to oust Islamic influence in government and move towards an early election once Erdogan has been barred from standing and possibly his party too.
All-in-all, this looks like it could be very positive for the West, although it undoubtably throws Turkey’s EU membership back another 20-years.
Oh Dear.
How Sad.
Never Mind.
We live in interesting times.
I spent 2 hours watching replays of Game of Thrones, and after turning off the TV, i find that something like that happened for real in Turkey.
Now i am going to bed, as i suppose most people east of the Atlantic will do or have done. Who knows what we shall find tomorrow morning?
“Obama has, according to the Post, spent more time speaking on the phone with Erdogan than any other ally. Indeed, in a cover story interview with Time Magazine, Obama told a fawning Fareed Zakaria that ErdoÄan was someone with whom he had become friends and forged âbonds of trust.â
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/obama-favorite-foreign-leader-erdogan/
He knows how to pick ’em.
“ . . . Obama told a fawning Fareed Zakaria that ErdoÄan was someone with whom he had become friends and forged âbonds of trust.â
Sometimes I am just so, so proud of my country and the great good judgment of my people.
The army didn’t take over the TV and radio stations first thing. Amateurs.
It sure looks like a bunch of amateurs. This will strengthen Erdogan, so it would have been better to do nothing.
Smite cats?
How about coup cats?
That the coup would fail always looked likely since it was clear early that neither Erdogan nor the prime minister had been seized as its first act. Coups, like other operations, can be well or ill done. What the coup plotters were thinking, to omit seizing Erdogan and his deputy as a first act, is puzzling to me. Of course, maybe they were unlucky. We’ll know much more later.
The July 20th plot made Hitler stronger internally – his internal opponents had revealed themselves and been crushed. It is said the same was the effect of the attempt to oust Chavez. Expect a doubling down on Islamicism.
Obama will be pleased; he boasted of the strong bonds he had forged with Erdogan – who may not be able to spot a coup plotter but can probably spot a mug when he sees one.
I agree this was a bit of theatre designed to allow Erdogan to tighten the thumbscrews on secular dissidents while his bff is still in the White House to make supportive noises about “Islamic democracy”. Erdogan removed the real Kemalists from the army on trumped up charges and has them coralled in prisons and courts for the past few years. As a serious coup this does not pass the smell test.
Indeed, so far looks like a false flag.
The coup has failed and Erdogan will emerge from this very strong.
3 main mistakes:
1. Not capturing Erdogan first thing.
2. Not shutting off/directly controlling TV, internet, and radio immediately.
3. Not shooting to kill anyone and everyone (even civilians) who were opposing the coup as it was unfolding. Media reported that civilians forcibly removed pro-coup soldiers from tanks – that’s surrender. Come out guns blazing and the civilians will obey (if 1 and 2 are covered).
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Coup-DEtat-Practical-Handbook-Luttwak/dp/0674175476
What makes you think this was a false flag, Alisa?
“Coup d’etat” is the only sensible book Luttwak ever wrote, as he is otherwise the Uwe Boll of military analysts.
I was interested to read that at a European level, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party are allies with the Tories in the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists group. America’s Republican Party, Australia’s Liberal Party, New Zealand’s National Party and Canada’s Conservatives are ‘Regional partners’ of this European alliance too. So basically the entire centre right of the anglosphere are allies of Erdogan’s party.
A false flag coup would have some advantages for Erdogan in terms of flushing out disaffected members of the military of the âColonelsâ rank who often start these things, it would then also allow for a further purging of the military, a temporary dictatorship of Erdogan to allow changes to the constitution to remove the constitutional requirement of the army to remove the government if required, etc., etc.,
The reason why I donât think it was is that Erdogan came across as weak and out of place, him being shown on TV over Facetime from some journalists mobile phone was just pathetic.
He might have regained control, but I think he will struggle to restore his supremacy.
Just another coup
I doubt it was “false flag”, more likely just “inept”.
But..but…inept is so boring… đ
I agree with Perry. Blowing apart the parliament building, slaughtering a number of police, getting arrested, wondering if you will be executed – many operations can be run easily as false flags, but an actual coups is not one of them. It was real but failed.
So Erdogan just happened to have a little list of undesirables handily in his back pocket?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-counter-coup-begins-turkey-purges-2745-judges-prosecutors-arrests-hundreds
I’d have been quite shocked if Erdogan did not keep such a list and have his team update it on an ongoing basis. I presume he has been keeping such a list for years.
There’s like a 1% chance this was a false flag op.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/07/16/turkey-coup-has-failed-erdogan-more-powerful-than-ever/?singlepage=true
Food for thought.
I had never heard of Uwe Boll, Perry! Seems like I wasn’t missing much.
I can’t agree with your assessment of Luttwak’s written work, as I can also recommend other books by him besides “Coup dâetat”, such as:
https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Strategy-Roman-Empire-D/dp/0801821584?ie=UTF8&*Version*=1&*entries*=0
And I have actually spoken with Luttwak a couple times; he’s a serious thinker, the real deal in my opinion.
I see the same moron who is pretending to be Longrider at Tim Worstall’s place is also here pretending to be Longrider, saying the exact same thing.
(Editor: duly deleted)
Yes. An incidence of the troll Dickie Doubleday. We’ve had him over at our place as well, the little prick.
I wish he would seek professional help rather than just dick around with people’s commentary.
Yes, definitely not me…
(Editor: I know, and the wanker keeps posting but the smite bot has been suitably adjusted đ )
Not a false flag: too much killing, too dangerous. Maybe some of the officers had false encouragement though, but even that seems unlikely bc the government got caught with its pants down. But it’s all over now and now we’re stuck with Erdogan. Fuck!
I agree with Nico: too bloody, too many people with too much on the line. I rarely assume conspiracy when incompetence is a simpler explanation.
I see Erdo is going to purge the army of 3,000 personnel, including high-ranking officers. Given he already jailed or neutralized the generals who were in charge when he assumed office, it raises the question of what effect this will have on the effectiveness of the Turkish military. Generally speaking, purging organizations – particularly military ones – and stuffing them full of loyalists has a severely detrimental effect on the organisation being purged. Could be in 5-10 years time a Turkish army unit is going to get the shit kicked out of it – possibly in Iraq or Syria – and Turkey’s military reputation will disappear down the drain.
Oh, and on the subject of bungled coups, the book on The Wonga Coup – which Mark Thatcher got himself snarled up in – is worth a read. Utter clowns.
He was spectacularly wrong about Gulf War I, essentially saying the US military was about to experience another Kasserine Pass moment, as if facing Saddam Hussain was comparable to the US Army vs. the Wehrmacht circa 1943. Er… no. Dupuy on the other hand nailed it.
The future was Japan (in his book “Turbo-Capitalism” or wherever it was called). Whoopsie.
And Grand Strategy of the Soviet Union was so wrong about pretty much everything it was comical (USSR would win in Afghanistan, USSR would attack China, USSR be made stronger by perestoika and glasnost, and he predicted the USA would have the power of a Third World nation by 2020 (I think that was the year but I am doing this from my Armagnac addled memory)).
“Coup d’etat: a Practical Handbook” is a splendid work, seminal even, but Luttwak needs to heed the Sage of Carmel
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/turkey-suspends-all-us-operations-against-isis-incirlik-airbase-which-vaults-us-b61-
I hope this is temporary and he is not going to hold those nukes stored there as hostages.
The coup was nowhere near.
So he more or less foresaw Obama?
It dies seem to be getting more difficult to mount coups nowadays. Certainly it seems impossible in the U.S. bc of how geographically distributed is large population is. But i think too that civilians and institutions everywhere are more likely to resist and resist well. This is generally good. Erdogan will have to be removed in a democratic way, as infeasible as that seems now…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/16/isis-airstrike-turkey-airspace-us-air-force
Will those fifty B16 nukes make Turkey an instant nuclear power or are they bargaining chips?
2020 is a fairly safe bet – as long as one assumes there will be no real reform of the “entitlement programs” on the government spending side and the Credit Bubble financial system on the monetary side.
And neither Mrs Clinton or Mr Trump are interested in such fiscal or monetary reform (rolling back the government) so things do indeed look bad for 2020.
However, nations can come back – and come back fast, if real reforms are made. Even 2021 may not (may not – I do not know) be too late to restore limited government in the United States, in the ruins of the Credit Bubble financial system and the bankrupt Welfare State.
As for Turkey……
The coup was years too late.
Most of the high ranking military officers were purged years ago.
This was small group.
As for Mr Gulan in exile in the United States.
He seems to sincerely believe one can combine Islam with respect for human rights.
I rather doubt that Mohammed would have agreed with him – but (Mr Gulan would reply) “you can not even read Arabic – so what do you know?”
The meaning of the Koran and the Hadiths (according to such Islamic scholars) can not be given by translations.
The meaning being in the “poetry of the words” – not the literal meaning.
No, even assuming things get worse, let alone no reform, the USA will not be a Third World Nation by 2020.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/incirlik?f=tweets&vertical=news
This is not getting the news coverage it deserves. He has shut down a US/Nato base containing operational nukes!
Tim Newman: “Generally speaking, purging organizations â particularly military ones â and stuffing them full of loyalists has a severely detrimental effect on the organisation being purged.” Indeed. One of the reasons the French army was so bad in the initial stages of the First World War was that so many officers had been purged following the Dreyfus Affair.
By the way, I did mention that I have a truly dreadful record when it comes to predicting the outcome of military coups?
BBC headline.
“Turky ‘coup'” Huh!