First they went for New York, then they hit Bali, now they are hitting their own backyard. This is terrorism back in serious business? That’s what I was thinking, and now this guy, damn him, an unnamed e-mailer to this has said it all for me. Best to read the whole thing, but here are a few key paragraphs:
The most telling aspect of these last two attacks is the geographic locations – Arabic countries nearby radical Islamist regimes. In the case of Saudi Arabia, parts of their own country can be considered radically Islamist; Morocco’s location adjacent to Algeria has always made it a prime target.
Why did they hit New York? Because they could. Now, they can’t. Why did they hit Bali? Because they could. Now they can’t. So why are they now hitting their own back yard? Because they can. And that’s all they can.
Why is this telling? These locations are within the “local” sphere of Arabic influence. The infrastructure and resources required to bring the fight to the enemy’s territory (us) has been effectively disrupted. Logistical planning and operational expertise has been effectively eliminated. Al-Qaeda can rely only on local extremist support, as that is what is left. The low-tech, Palestinian method, effectively demonstrates that few resources are available and that the imagination and planning required for more sophisticated attacks is just not present.
Well maybe it’s not all they can now hit, and sometime Real Soon Now maybe they’ll prove me, and this guy, wrong. I’m only optimistic that they won’t hit New York (or London, or Paris, or Rome) because a lot of smart and hardworking people are absolutely not taking this for granted. It’s like how you back a good sports team to win their big game, precisely because they don’t assume that they’ll win, that being all part of what makes them so good.
That necessary caveat aside, my bet about how things are now going is the same as this guy’s bet:
The war on terror has been a success. The arena has not shifted. The roll back continues. Arabic countries have now been forced into the realization that, for their own survival, these groups must be destroyed. These regimes are nothing if not ruthless. Expect a surge of beheadings in the near future.
Soon, in other words, they won’t even be able to hit their own back yard. With luck, and lots more not taking things for granted by our team, there will then, or eventually (after a few more horrors in out of the way spots), be a long period of silence. And then slowly, very slowly, it will dawn on everyone that it just might be … over.
And the moral is, if you have a clever thought, post it fast, or someone else will get to it first.