Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on Tuesday that it was unlikely Moscow would abstain on a U.N. vote on authorizing war against Iraq and strongly indicated it will use its Security Council veto to stop it if necessary.
At a joint news conference with Jack Straw yesterday the Russian softened his stance slightly. “The Iraqi issue is one that is unlikely that one of us would abstain…We have not ruled out using a veto over the crisis.”
The French/Chirac’s interests in Iraq have already been examined in some detail but I am yet to see a comparable analysis of the Russian motives. At the moment it seems that Russia is giving itself ample room to support America and Britain in future military action despite declaring its opposition to war in Iraq.
It is clear that Moscow expects to extract maximum amount for its support of military action in the UN. Perhaps the price has not been high enough. They will want guarantees that Russia’s economic interests in Iraq will be preserved, particularly its contracts to develop rich oil fields once sanctions are lifted.
Also, Iraq is one of Russia’s traditional allies. Russian hardware makes up 95 per cent of Iraq’s arms and the two developed strong ties in Soviet times. It is hard to believe that they do not see that they would be much better off supporting the US and the UK in its strategy.
The problem seems to be not only the Russian government’s need to protect huge investments and deals already made but also its inability to recognise that the kind of blackmail Iraqis are trying on them, is not necessarily ‘understood’ by the Bush administration.
Last year, a week before Christmas, a row broke out between Russia and Iraq when Baghdad declared “null and void” a �200 billion deal with Lukoil to develop the West Qurna oil field.
Russia’s energy and foreign ministries reacted furiously to the news. Tariq Aziz, Iraq’s deputy prime minister, said the cancellation was to punish Lukoil for negotiating with America over its future interests in the region. Given Iraq’s record, the cancellation of the deal was probably a crude attempt to blackmail Moscow into offering greater diplomatic support during the crucial developments in the UN in the coming months.
At that time Igor Ivanov, the Russian foreign minister, called for talks on the deal. If America had offered Moscow the guarantees it was seeking for Lukoil, the balance of power (or rather of obstructiveness) might have looked rather different today. Russia’s aim is to get the US to convince it that Saddam’s downfall would be to its economic advantage. Or in other words, pay them now or in future lucrative contracts, or else. Who said that the UN was a street market of sordid bargains?
Update: Earlier today on MTV, Mr Blair said that in a post-conflict Iraq, the country’s oil should go into a UN supervised reserve which would be for the benefit of the Iraqi people. Oh dear, oh dear…
Looks like America and Britain will be going it alone. Maybe now we can finally withdraw from the UN and cause it to disband.
The only thing that REALLY matters to Russia is that huge pile of debt due them from Iraq. They’re scared to death they’ll never get payed.
Yeah, people have been phrasing it as “Russia needs to identify with either Europe or America,” or even “Europe must identify with either America or Russia.” Who’s leading who here? Probably neither. Russia’s oil interests are (and always have been) a key part of their economy and also a key part of their diplomatic weight in Eastern Euorpe and the Middle East. Anyone remember the oil trading throughout Eastern Europe during the Cold War?
— brendan
MB – the Russian fear is correct. Once a new, more democratic regime is in place, Russia will not get paid for its old debts against Iraq. On the positive side, France won’t get paid either – and France has billions owing.
Byron – Britain and France will not be going it alone. We have 26 other countries along with us. That makes up, essentially, the free world – save France, Germany and Belgium. We’re not going it alone.
The UN won’t disband. It will collapse as no respectable nation agrees to pay its bills and its parking fines for third world dictators and their scores of limousines and lackies parking illegally in NYC and the huge taxbreaks this horrible, ugly, stalinist building generates. The UN will be made into condos – if anyone contemplating buying can stand the stench. Great view, but pheewwwwww!
I think that Russia and France allready know there is no way they can get the billions Iraq owes them, war or no war, Saddam never intended to pay, and will never be able to, and neother will any other regime.
I propose the following hypothesys:
What Russia wants is to keep the Middle East boiling and in turmoil. This way the flow of oil is hindered, oil prices go up and Russia enjoys a windfall of oil profits – as it is a major oil exporting country. Also ME countries buy more Russian weapons (though they pay with bad credit). So Russia only wants to prolong the conflict.
That is diametrically opposed to what America and the West want – a steady and abundant oil flow so that prices go down. France’s interests in oil are with the West (low prices), so are Germany’s. People say France acts in it’s self interest. I don’t see it that way. They act like idiots, which isn’t surprising, given their president.
Britain and France [assume you meant US] will not be going it alone.
I meant militarily.
The UN will be made into condos – if anyone contemplating buying can stand the stench. Great view, but pheewwwwww!
lol!
What Russia want is evident, they want to regain the political prestige they lost… Same thing with France and Germany… it’s pretty evident… and in my opinion it’s not a bad thing at all…
And btw, if you really want UN to disband you are really stupid… Who will remplace them to keep some order in the world, the USA all by themselve?
Ghaleon, what makes you think plans aren’t in the works??
Russian Intelligence must be slipping, they used to be able to read American Presidents much better. But then, they were never able to understand President Reagan either. President Bush is perhaps the most focused leader we have had in a very long time and the Russians (& French and Germans) just do not understand that you can not cheat an honest man.
And as to a replacement for the UN, the Vilnius Ten will claim the honor of naming the “Congress of Democracies”; the Dictators and “Presidents-for-Life” can go back to being Chicken Thieves as we certainly have no need to sit at table with them.
Nato will fade away as direct security and defense agreements are negotiated between like-minded democracies and the collective talents and abilities of their citizens are going to take this world of ours in some interesting directions.
But we will pay a serious price, in blood and treasure as we move ahead to the future.
Hey Ghaleon, only stupid people make remarks like that. You make contentions and then back them up with nothing as if they were self-sevident, which they ain’t.
How the hell does the UN ‘keep some order in the world’? Like where exactly? It only ‘keeps the peace’ when wars are over and the parties are ‘fought out’ and there is a peace to keep… and if UN troops are in the way of a new war, they just get booted out… for example the Croatians just brushed the UN troops aside when they retook Krajina… and exactly how many Arab-Israeli wars have the UN stopped?
UN provides order? Don’t make me laugh.
So Russia and France lost their prestige, no one took it from them. Hmmm sounds like a self inflicted wound to me. Tweaking the nose of the world’s only superpower may make them feel better about themselves, but it will have consequences.
The real difference between the old Soviet Union and the United States, besides the genocide, terror, torture, gulags, and show trials, is that the United States had and has the greatest military on earth as well as the largest economy on earth, whereas the Soviets had a real big army with lots of nukes and zip for an economy. Communism and socialism will do it to you every time. Plus at this moment in history the United States is the only thing keeping world order, because it’s the only power that can.
Who will remplace them to keep some order in the world,
If you think the UN keeps order in the world, then you’re sadly deluded. Maybe you should finish highschool before you comment any more at Samizdata.
Byron you’re a fucking moron, stop to think you’re more intelligent than other people… Why the heck do you think the people who governs you, such as Powell, think that it is important to have an UN accord before attacking Iraq? If they thought UN wasn’t important, they would already have attacked… But at least they are intelligent enought to understand that UN is important, and you will see even if they attack Iraq without an UN agreement, they won’t withdraw from it.
Ghaleon, President Bush said in his press conference yesterday that the point of the second (actually, the 18th) Security Council resolution was to take note of exactly who are friends of the United States and who are not. The notion that this brave president is dependent on the approval of thugocracies, chancers, turncoats and poseurs to do what he knows is right is absurd. All you have to do is listen to what Mr Bush says. There are no hidden meanings; there’s no tricky phraseology that could be construed several ways. He said on September 12 2001 that other countries were “with us or they’re against us”. This Security Council vote is to provide the final tally.
Ghaleon that is wishful thinking. What would happen to the U.N. if Germany decided to pull out? Anwser: nothing. Now what would happen to the U.N. if the United States decided to pull out? Anwser: U.N. implosion. The U.N. is the on place other than mulilateral trade talks foreign governments can influence the U.S. They need the U.N. far more than the U.S. needs the U.N. This is crucial to how the U.S. behaves toward the U.N. Plus many in the U.S. feel we can achieve greater results, and better understanding by dealing with other nations bilaterally. We are not a nation of masochists, we won’t allow other nations sabotage our national interests, especially when our lives are at stake, so some has-been European powers feel good about themselves. Right now only Britain and Australia have influence in American foreign policy and desevedly so.
Hep Cat Atlanta, GA USA