Donald Rumsfeld listed Saddam’s available options in an interview with a reporter from El Mercurio, a Chilean newspaper:
“That’s a possibility. A number of leaders of countries have decided they were in a corner and they had no choice and, rather than have a conflict in their country, or rather than have their family and friends killed, that they will leave. So, that is a possibility.
Another possibility is that he will try to do what he has done repeatedly before: to lie, and to pretend-as he is already saying-that they do not have weapons of mass destruction and see how long he can fool the inspectors.
Another possibility would be simply to say, “Fair enough. We’ve got them, and you can come in and we will destroy them and life will go on.” And try to stay in office that way. Try to keep his regime intact that way. Which of those three courses of action he will end up taking I think is probably a function of how the world behaves as much as how he behaves.
If there is a determination and a steadiness of purpose, so that the countries of the world and the United Nations demonstrate to him that he really does not have a lot of choices; he does not have the choice of not disarming.”
Donald missed one, and it’s the one I’m starting to believe is the one which will actually happen.
Let’s think in medieval terms. Why would a King or Warlord arrange for his family and favorite courtiers to be sent out the backdoor of the castle? Why would he pay large sums of money to another Kingdom to ensure their safety?
Saddam knows he is going to lose. He is going to go down fighting.
He will use everything he has. Saddam expects to die and will go down shooting. Whatever you may think of him, Saddam is no soft bureaucrat. He killed his first man when he was in his teens or early twenties. He knows how to handle military weapons.
I suggest he is following a twofold strategy. First and foremost he is trying to buy time. He hopes he can pull off a fudge once again but doesn’t really believe it is going to work this time. He is using the time he buys to prepare for his final battle.
If he has made the Roman-like decision “to die well”, he has a number of options open to him. He might try hitting US forces or local allies first. Suicidal? Yes, but he might think it his best chance for inflicting casualties on us. Even if the kill ratio is badly against him he could think it a good idea to grab the initiative. We know high casualties don’t bother him much: just look to the Iran-Iraq war for proof.
There could be secret operations going on right now to deploy his nasties for the last “glorious” stand. He’ll take down half the population of Iraq if it will take more american soldiers with him. If he has bio and chem, they will be released not only in the desert. He will use them in urban battles, even in heavily populated areas. If he has nukes, he will have them pre-positioned with orders to set them off when defeat is imminent. His Fedaheen will certainly be prepared to die with and for him as they cannot expect to long survive his passing.
I assume the US military has already worked through this scenario and has plans to minimize it. They most likely have contingency plans for quickly regaining initiative if Saddam strikes first.
Make no mistake. We are dealing with someone fully capable of making a last glorious stand his statement for the history books. In his mind it’s the chance for the Persians to play the Spartans with him in the starring Leonidas role.
This game has no rules… and no limits.
Dale-
I agree with your assesment of what is going on in Saddam’s mind. I think the Leonidas option is what he was going for, and FWIW should have gone for the first time he fought the US.
My only comment about is that I hope you drastically overestimate the professionalism and willingness of Saddam’s various operatives and troops to fight. I don’t see what their incentive is to fight so hard. Pray that they don’t find any.
I think you’re both right. I think Saddam will go down in flames but a lot of his army will desert beforehand leaving him with his ‘hard-core’ Republican Guard (est. 15000-20,000).
The RG are like his Waffen SS; they are the enforcers, the executioners, the torturers. Surrender is not an option for them as they are targets for swift retribution if they survive. They have no choice but to go down with the project.
IMO, it will be very bloody and very desperate but not as protracted as some may fear.
Understand I do not think it will necessarily succeed. I agree troops are likely to put down their weapons if they are in a position to do so.
That is why he would be wise to use them first. Far easier to convince troops to attack, and far harder to surrender when actively engaged.
Beside the RG, remember there is also Uday’s personal army, the Fedaheen. They’re his assassins, sent to kill Iraqi dissidents in other countries; who have beheaded groups of women for “prostitution” and done it in public places to make the terror point.
I don’t think these masked assassins will surrender. They will pull the pin if ordered.
Here’s a thought from anIraqi blogger in Iraq.
“And in a case of war I do believe that if saddam has any biological or chemical weapons he is very likely to use them on his own people to give the CNN and Jazeera the bloody images everyone doesn’t want to see.”
I hate the use of the word “chilling”, but I think it applies there.
Saddam’s a runner (like in the sci-fi movie, “Logan’s Run”).
To me, Saddam is nothing more than Idi Amin with oil revenues. And we let that mass-murdering wretch scoot off in permanent exile to Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . it’s less likely that we’d give up on catching Saddam without trying really hard for a long time, but once he gets into Libya, how much force can the U.S. bring to bear?
I hope you are right but believe you are wrong. Saddam came up through the ranks. He’s looks on himself as an heir to the ancient rulers of Persia. He had some wall or such built with his name on every brick. He’s already made himself archaeology.
He wanted a new Persian Empire. America blocked him and is now going for end game. I expect Saddam to try something horrific enough to put his name in the history books for this millennium. I hope I am wrong; I hope Tommy Franks has his contingency pieces in play and ready to move.
I’ll call him many things but coward is not one of them.
Saddam may have wanted a grand empire, but it wouldn’t be Persian. Iran is Persian; Iraq is more Arab.
Delusions of Grandeur affect different men differently . . . . . it’s hard to predict what people will do when they have such slippery grips on reality.
I would note this, though. An ancient saying from the East holds that fights are decided beforehand in the minds of the combatants. This particular fight will be completely over before it starts. IN THE LAST war, Iraqi soldiers deserted by the thousands and one brigade surrendered to a group of cheese-eating surrender monkey French photographers.
SO, put yourself in the boots of an Iraqi soldier. You have less equipment today than 11 years ago and less training and much lower morale. The U.S. military may be smaller, but the weapons are even more accurate – you’re acutely aware of this as Iraqi radar sites have been steadily destroyed over the past couple of months. How on earth could a brilliant leader get soldiers to fight under those conditions? You couldn’t. Napoleon, Alexander, Robert E. Lee, Patton, even Hannibal couldn’t.
Saddam is essentially crazy, so who knows what the hell he’ll do . . . . . . but his army IS NOT crazy, and even if Saddam tries to take the whole country down with him, one suspects that they won’t go. Time will tell.
Yes, I was indeed in error. It was the Babylonian Empire of which he sees himself an heir.
I wish I had the Nat Geo article about Iraq and Saddam from the early 1980’s. It may have been the one which mentioned the name-stamped brick thing he did to ensure his immortality. His shot to put his name right up there with Nebuchadnezzar.
This is stupid. Saddam would far prefer to be a live nuisance than a dead hero. He’s had the “dead hero” option for ages, ever since the gulf war. Shoot off a few missiles at israel and he could trigger a war at his leisure.
My confident prediction: Saddam will back down just enough, and wait it out. Politics can’t keep the heat high on a situation like this forever. The public will grow tired. The news will stop reporting it and go poke at the economy or something. When the USA government has finally decided to wag a different dog, Saddam will begin making a nuisance of himself again.
I’m with Julian. Why die when you can carry on forever? Or at least until you’re arthritic, you’re suffering from Alzheimers and you’re sitting watching the Teletubbies? So long as he can remain in power and so long as he believes Bush means it, he’ll let the UN have its way.
Not the Leonides option so much as the ‘Bond baddie’ scenario. The idea is that as his options run out Saddam reaches for the red button and you hear a robotic voice say ‘Iraq will destruct in 90 seconds…’ Girls in bikini’s scatter as Saddam stops stroking his persian cat and cackles insanely as his secret HQ collapses around him. Nah. Q has it covered.
Saddam to Rumsfeld: do you expect me to cooperate?
Reply: No Mr Hussein I expect you to die.
Several disagreements. Saddam wants more than Iraq and if he is about to be successfully defanged, he will fight. You may say this “is stupid” but it all depends on how you view the world. Some persons are not “rational” from the standpoint of someone in a comfortable “western” livingroom. Idi Amin was out to live like a king of old; Saddam is out to live like a great conqueror of old.
The next falsehood is that he is going to get away with it. I seriously hope not and even more seriously doubt it. I can’t imagine the US *not* going in. I cannot imagine the inspectors succeeding to a level I would be willing to bet the lives of friends and family in the States. We’ve got a handful of inspectors going into a country the size of France. They could just about hide anything. Really certifying the place free of WMD would take hundreds or thousands of inspectors YEARS to comb the place *after* Saddam was dead.
No, it’s not the Bond villain option. That does not encapsulate the internal psychology at all. Had Saddam lived a thousand years ago, he might have been in the history books along with Xerxes, Alexander, Tamarlane and others. I believe he sees himself in that mould and hates the US for blocking his destiny.
That is not to say there aren’t Hollywoodish elements… hey, who else has a trained army of masked sword wielding assassins who could go into Jordan and kill everyone at a party in a dissidents mansion by chopping their heads off? And escape?
Reality is far worse than Bond because there is no Bond. There is no labeled red button at the villains hand, only totally loyal members of a death squad ready to carryout whatever orders they were given.
The Bond villain would have the button in his big room with a fishtank. The real world dictator will have his loyal guard ready to blow things if he gives the order or once they know a site is filled with americans. Or perhaps the weapons are primed and ready and hidden in the basement of that old restaurant you like in the City Centre…
Saddam is crazy.
Beyond the bricks, he has a Quran written entirely in his own blood. Not only that, he takes VIAGRA!
And I’m sorry (actually, I’m NOT sorry), but this is utter nonsense:
” . . . . . confident prediction: Saddam will back down just enough, and wait it out. . . . . .”
Just like last time, right? Last time that would have been the right strategy – back off Kuwait but keep the slice of disputed Rumaila oil fields that helped start the conflict. To the extent Generals like to fight the last war, maybe Saddam will try THAT strategy this time. But this time it’s a loser ’cause the U.S. is playing for keeps.
One other observation on Saddam: there are informed rumors, speculation and innuendo about his health. IF THE GREAT MAN has a serious form of cancer, would that effect his strategy?
Saddam’s strategic successes.
1. Invade revolutionary Iran. Past history of foreign interventions in revolutionary regimes (France, Russia) would have counselled caution. Result: 8 years of stalemate.
2. Invade Kuwait threatening western interests. Result: Gulf War 1.
3. Make WMD. Result: Continued sanctions and probable eventual overthrow.
Conclusion: Saddam is not a military genius.
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