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Well, well, well

It is not over, but things are looking good for Leave.

Update: Some internet sites where you can watch what is turning out to be a political earthquake:

The Guardian‘s live blog. Hats off to them, this is the obvious first place to go.

EU referendum rolling forecasts by Chris Hanretty, Reader in Politics University of East Anglia

Political Betting.com. Sample headline “The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain’s advantage”. A student of history, then.

*

First thoughts:

– THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION.

The working class did it. The issue was immigration. It wouldn’t have been my choice for main issue, but I am not ashamed to have been in a broad alliance. I’ll gladly bear the next election being won by a party I don’t like in exchange for elections mattering again.

– Talking of which, who will win the next election? Which parties will fight it? When will it be? No idea.

Shy Leavers. And I hesitate to say this, but the atmosphere of blame following the murder of Jo Cox will have been perceived by many as moral blackmail.

The EU is holed beneath the waterline. People worldwide have seen that impossible things can happen.

President Trump? His visit to these shores is spookily well timed.

Prime Minister Cameron? – 2010-2016

Don’t assume that the SNP actually wants another Scottish independence referendum. Right now a second indyref would have the same result as the first.

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69 comments to Well, well, well

  • Cal

    Sorry, gotta go to bed. Don’t count your chickens yet.

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    Q. Why did the politician cross the road?

    A. Because the average politician is a chicken, and that’s what a chicken would do!

  • Sam Duncan

    3am (can’t sleep: sinusitis), Sky are showing a dead heat to one decimal place, with remain a few thousand votes ahead. It’s going to be tight…

  • Mr Ed

    Boston, 75.6% Leave, More than a Feeling!

    Striking how out of step England and Wales are with London.

  • Natalie Solent (Essex)

    Sam, my understanding is that given the predicted pattern of likely-Leave and likely-Remain results being counted, that neck and neck vote count is worse than it looks for Remain.

  • Natalie – I looked at the tweet, and I rather think your 56-44 man made that prediction at 6.15pm yesterday. Not after the results started coming in.

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    A lot of people have said that the Brexpat (British expatriot) vote is likely to favour Leave, and their postal votes haven’t been counted yet, have they?

  • Mr Ed

    NG,

    Postal votes in Great Britain go in with all the others and are not counted separately.

  • Natalie Solent (Essex)

    Brian, I think we may be at cross-purposes. I don’t recall linking to any tweet.

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    Still, the result refutes those who thought the vote would be ‘managed’ into a remain vote. Looks like this will be a win for the true Beleavers!

  • staghounds

    I’ll believe it when it happens. The vote, and the actual exit. I can hear the politicians now, “X% is no mandate for such a sweeping change.”

  • Laird

    The Guardian site you linked shows 71.36% turnout. That seems an extraordinarily large number, or is that merely my distorted American perspective?

    I just heard Nigel Farage claiming victory for Leave on the Guardian Livestream feed.

  • Mr Ed

    There’ll be a late ‘swing’ to Remain from Birmingham and environs.

  • staghounds

    “Refferendwm”. Almost as funny as “Ambiwlans”.

  • Mr Ed

    Wales is over 50% + 1 Leave, its first declarartion of independence in a thousand years.

  • Mr Ed

    It is so irritating that I will find out the final result ‘quicker’ if I manage to get some sleep.

  • staghounds

    Chicago has yet to be heard from.

  • chip

    The inexorable creep of statism is struck a blow. Will it matter in the long run?

  • staghounds

    BIG SALE in BRITAIN- 10% OFF ON EVERYTHING !!!!

  • Natalie Solent (Essex)

    staghounds, don’t you knock it. As Mr Ed said, Wales used its refferendwm votes to carve out a course that will have surprised many.

  • Regional

    Nicholas Gray,
    Why did the politician cross the road?
    Because he saw someone he hadn’t shivved or robbed.
    Politicians are like butcher shop dogs always hanging around to nick the best cuts.

  • The fat lady hasn’t sung, but she’s cleared her throat.

    BBC has just called the referendum for Leave on a 70% turnout and 52% for Leave / 48% for Remain.

  • staghounds

    Birmingham leave? That’s it, I don’t think even Highgate and Kensal Green together have enough to pull it out now. Tomorrow will be interesting, GO ENGLAND!!!!

  • Mr Ecks

    Chip: “The inexorable creep of statism is struck a blow. Will it matter in the long run?”

    If we do not beat cultural Marxism and corporate socialism there will be no long run for any of us.

    This is a kick in the balls for TPTB and will finish Camoron.

    As for economic trouble–well the entire West is in deep economic shit because of the antics of political and bureaucratic scum.

    If this nation was the first to be forced to come to grips with economic malaise and start up sanity again–I believe that would be to our ultimate advantage.

  • Laird

    Mr Ed, the Guardian is reporting that Birmingham just voted Leave (not Remain, as you predicted). Final nail?

  • bobby b

    Were this happening currently in the USA, I would expect that one final large city would come in at the last minute, carrying Remain into a squeaker victory with a vote count of 187% of registered voters.

    Are London’s numbers reported yet?

  • Laird

    Mostly, Bobby B. See this.

  • Myno

    Brilliant. A breath of hope in troubling times.

  • stef

    Could someone comment on the Northern Ireland split for us outsiders? How are those guys aligned?

  • Mr Ed

    Laird,

    Yes, final nail. I am delighted to be confounded.

  • Mr Ed

    stef,

    They like subsidies in N Ireland, the EU hands them out.

    Nationalists remain, Protestant bureaucrats ditto, people who work Leave.

  • Regional

    The final vote looks like a Europe Foxtrot Oscar by about a million votes, every expert was wrong.

  • Plamus

    Congrats, brethren. Raising a glass of fine Scotch (the irony, but it’s all I have!) for you. For what it’s worth, Russell 2000 futures are down almost 7%, and I am massively short, so you made me both happy and richer, and therefore even happier. Cheers!

  • Thailover

    This just in, GB has voted to LEAVE the EU!!!

    Fucking awesome!

    (I can go to bed now, I have to go to work in 4.5 hours).

  • Lee Moore

    It’s never over till the Austrian postal votes are counted.

  • Gene

    I second Thailover’s sentiments and share the same work schedule so I will also say good night & will sleep happy. I’ll be sure to buy some British goods tomorrow.

  • Laird

    I have to sleep now, too, so good night and congrats to all. I’ll have a Glenlivet tomorrow, and enjoy both the scotch and the irony.

  • Mr Ed

    Northumberland has pushed Leave over 50% + 1!

  • Russ in TX

    Congratulations!! The long death of the globalist technocrats has begun!

  • bobby b

    It’s always enjoyable seeing your friends make good choices. Once Obama’s gone, and you’re out of the EU, I think you’ll see us doing our part to rebuild the special relationship that we allowed him to damage. Congratulations.

  • Alisa

    Happy independence 😀

  • The Wobbly Guy

    Congrats! Its a blow against the trans-globalists, and that’s always a good thing.

  • PapayaSF

    Congratulations! When globalism means more statism, nationalism is on the side of liberty.

  • Congratulations

    Poor Poor Poor EU

  • Thon Brocket

    We have a new experience. We have victory – a remarkable and definite victory.

    Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

    – Churchill after Alamein

  • PeterT

    Well well well people. Good morning!

    I shall not jump in the Thames after all! Although the London Bridge lemmings might well throw me in.

    Cameron will survive this no doubt. Oh well, I’d rather have it this way round.

  • Paul Marks

    Please note the Welsh result – the Welsh voted for British independence.

    This was not “English nationalism” – this is the independence of the United Kingdom.

    I am sad that Ulster did not vote for British independence – but “money talks” (lots of E.U. bribes) and Sinn Fein doing is normal “vote early and vote often” thing.

    As for Scotland.

    Bleep Scotland.

  • My opinion is…. YYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! YEEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

  • Paul Marks

    Many thanks Alisa.

    Yes “Happy Independence” Day.

    The independent Nation State is not dead.

    And the”international community” (who, of course, hate Israel even more than they hate British independence) are crying today.

    Of course the international economic crash (which was going to happen anyway) will now be blamed on British independence.

    But I do not care.

  • William H. Stoddard

    I’m glad to have political news so much better than what we’re having in the United States! Thank you, England and Wales.

  • William H. Stoddard

    Oh, and I have to say, when I look at the geographic distribution of the votes, I’m reminded of Dorothy Dunnett’s Lymond Chronicles, where
    Scotland and Ireland are constantly turning to France for protection against English plots. . . .

  • George Atkisson

    Congratulations on your Freedom, from across the Atlantic. I’m sure both Brussels and Parliament will drag their feet and collude to make the separation as painful as possible out of spite. Make your own way and feel free to make as many Monty Python and the Holy Grail references to Obama’s attempted interference as needed.

    Well done.

  • Cal

    Back up after a few hours sleep. Great news! We now need an immediate declaration of Article 50. I’ll even forgive Cameron if he does this today and then resigns. I do not agree witb those who say we should wait. The longer we wait, the more opportunbity there is for leaving to be scuppered. Declare now, then negotiate.

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    Sorry, Perry. Your keyboard seemed to malfunction. What is your opinion again?

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    As for the rest of you, apparently Leave will cause all of Western Civilisation to collapse! Aren’t you ashamed of yourselves?

  • Cal

    Actually, I’m now not sure that invoking Article 50 is the best way. It’s important that Cameron goes, though.

  • Snorri Godhi

    I am speechless! what i feel is best described as relief: finally we have a referendum that the EU cannot ignore. (Or can they?)

    Anyway now is the time to remind you of my modest, and not necessarily serious, proposal: let England and Wales leave the UK, and hence the EU; Scotland, N.Ireland, and Gibraltar remain in the UK so that they do not have to renegotiate with the EU.

  • Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker!) Gray

    Just like the Lisbon treaty, we’ll hold another poll until the Brits get it right!

  • Natalie – I’m up again.

    I know this little exchange is not the point of this thread, but, re Mr 56-44: what you read was (I believe) an after-echo of the statement, first tweeted and no doubt first commmunicated by other means also, at around 6pm. Same guy, same numbers, timed 6.15pm yesterday early evening. It made no sense as soon as the real results started coming in. I didn’t believe it when you mentioned it, so I did some digging, and found out why he was so wrong. It was just an early guess.

    He was about as wrong as all the other regular ponitificators, but in the other direction!

  • Watchman

    Nicholas,

    Unlike the Lisbon Treaty referenda, this is in the UK. Our politicians still appear to have some principles, and aren’t going to dispute a referendum result.

  • Sam Duncan

    “Don’t assume that the SNP actually wants another Scottish independence referendum.”

    Yeah, so much for that. I’ve just finished watching the Poison Dwarf’s speech. So, in nearly 30 years of voting, the only people who have ever told me that my vote counts less than my fellow countrymen in England and Wales are the SNP. Twenty years of arguing the case against the anti-democratic Union of Europe, and I needn’t have bloody bothered. I’m going to be dragged into it whether I like it or not.

    I really feel like punching something right now.

  • […] How about that then. Well, well, well. Many other writers here have been thinking aloud about this, and so, now, will […]

  • Andrew Duffin

    “Don’t assume that the SNP actually wants another Scottish independence referendum.”

    You’re wrong there. The Scots are absolutely spitting this morning. It seems quite possible that the UK will fracture before it even has a chance to leave the EU; they see that as a way of staying in the EU despite the UK vote.

    As to why they are so keen to stay, I can only assume it’s because the English are so keen to go.

  • Natalie Solent (Essex)

    Andrew, I don’t think I’m wrong, and by no means all Scots are “spitting”. Look at the comments to this story in The Scotsman in order of recommendations. Those are mostly comments from Unionist Scots, who, don’t forget, won a referendum themselves not that long ago. For instance:

    Second Independence Referendum… I supported the continued membership of the European Union for the United Kingdom. I am not “reassessing” my vote in the second Independence Referendum.

    WHY?
    1. If we leave the United Kingdom to join the European Union there’d be a hard border between ourselves and England.
    2. Why would, even through these economic headwinds, want to ditch sterling for the Euro?
    3. We would not gain admittance to the European Union without accepting to be part of the Schengen No Borders area…
    4. I have a British identity and I am not prepared to give it up.
    5. North sea oil is unsustainable and it’s apparently Scotland’s metaphorical honey tree.
    6. English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irishmen have fought in wars together and died together to defend this country. Why would I try to split up what they had tried so hard to defend?

    – from a comment by ‘I Presume’

    For a view from the Nationalist side look at the comments to this post from the pro-independence site “Bella Caledonia”:

    Yesterday’s vote in Scotland throws up what might be called the ‘Edinburgh Problem.’ It is also the Scottish Problem but the voting in Edinburgh is very clear cut.
    In 2014, over 60% of voters in Edinburgh opted to stay in the UK.
    In 2016, well over 70% of voters in Edinburgh opted to stay in the EU.
    With the UK set to leave the EU, voters in Edinburgh and the rest of Scotland may have to make a choice between the UK and the EU.
    I am far from convinced that they would choose the EU.
    (Significantly 84.5% of voters turned out in 2014. Only 67 % did so yesterday.)
    Writing about a ‘provocation that will not be tolerated’ is wildly over the top.
    A serious analysis might conclude that, in a time of economic and social turbulence, the idea of Scottish independence may well be no more attractive to voters in places like Edinburgh than it was in 2014.

    – from a comment by ‘florian albert’.

    Personally I think Nicola Sturgeon is making a big show of fighting for a referendum the same way David Cameron did – in the hope and assumption that it will be refused by someone else. She has just had an object lesson of the risks of that strategy but feels she must persist in it to appease her base. Note how ambiguous her actual words are.

  • Laird

    Scotland may be “spitting” this morning, but I have my doubts that it will lead to another independence referendum. The Scottish vote was strongly Remain, but the actual turnout was not that high. I can’t find the numbers right now, but as I recall Scottish turnout was around 62% (the second-lowest region in the UK), compared to 72%+ overall. That’s a lot lower than the turnout for the independence referendum, as I recall. So perhaps the bulk of the population is not quite as excited about this as their leaders (and the noisier bits) would indicate.

  • Don’t forget that many Scottish Remainers voted remain not from love of the EU but because they thought it the best way to avoid talk of a second referendum in Scotland. I preached that the best way was to make our leave vote less different than the rest of the UK but the bulk of people were told the opposite and believed it. Their true motive will rule what happens next, not what Sturgeon tells them to feel.

  • Southpaw

    Whats that droning I hear overhead? Spitfires? And another smoking JU-88 punches a hole in some poor farmer’s field. Reichschancellor Merkel will not be pleased.

  • Julie near Chicago

    I am devastated that because Life, yesterday I was AWOL from my duty of expressing here my true feelings.

    Fortunately, Perry’s broken (or deliberately and wantonly misbehaving) keyboard has done so, concisely, correctly, and with something approaching my own fervid gratitude to the Great Frog — first, for endowing the majority of those who voted Leave with the common sense and intelligence, not to mention the intestinal fortitude, to do so; second, for endowing likewise Britain with enough Britons who got out there to do the slogging, in various venues.

    VERY well done, dear brothers and sisters!

    YYYYIIIIIIIIIIIIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

  • Julie near Chicago

    Er, “fervent.”