The pro-Remain Daily Mirror has an odd choice for its front page:
“THIS IS WHERE THE MONEY GOES”
I know what the Mirror is trying to say, but what with “REMAIN” being in capitals and larger type, the instant impression that it gives to me is that REMAIN is a deep dark hole sucking the hapless voter inwards to destruction. A valiant effort by the Leave mole in the Mirror graphics department, but judging by the final polls, it may not be enough. But don’t let the polls cause you to give up and not bother voting: the pattern has been that phone polls tended towards Remain and online polls towards Leave. I attribute this to “Shy Leavers” being put off from disclosing their true intentions to a possibly disapproving human being, particularly since the murder of Jo Cox. I could, of course, be wrong in this supposition. But it is worth a go.
My final Referendum thought? It’s one you could share with undecided left-wingers. A Leave win would increase the chance of Labour winning the next election, an outcome I do not want. But better a thousand times a party with the wrong policies in power for a few years in a system where we retain the power to throw them out next time than being sucked past the event horizon of the European Union, where all votes are votes for ever closer union.
The Mirror just saw the M&C Saatchi poster for “Stronger In” and decided to try and rip it off. It’s the same visual metaphor, just poorly executed.
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/m-c-saatchis-last-stronger-poster-warns-leave-eu-theres-no-going-back/1399448#
I agree with the point about the impact of the Jo Cox murder. The Remainers wouldn’t have been human (and they certainly wouldn’t have been politicians) had they NOT tried to insinuate that voting Leave means being in favour of MPs being murdered by crazy people. They duly did this. This will presumably have convinced some, but it must also have caused others to keep quieter about their unaltered – or even only just solidifying – intentions to vote Leave.
My prayers are with you.
It’s not like Britain doesn’t have 10 centuries of self-governance experience, so naturally to exit a 20 year old “union” and return to that experience is to leap into an abyss. Are people actually buying this nonsense?
Some colleagues were ganging up on another colleague, who stated that she was undecided but leaning leave. I came out of the closet and stated I was for Leave. Hopefully that will have emboldened her.
Anyway, the polls certainly aren’t decisive enough to be complacent. If you haven’t done so already, Vote Leave. Even if we lose remember that the more marginal the win for Remain, the more likely it is that Cameron is toast.
My scenario is this. Cameron wins 51/49. Tory party at large votes 40%/60% (i.e. 60% leave). Enough Tory party mps send letters calling for a vote of no confidence. This proceeds but narrowly fails. Nevertheless Cameron is called out and there is a coup. Upside scenario is that Johnson/Gove win. They duly state that, given that 50% of the country wanted out, and 50% in, the compromise solution is to join the EEA and that finds itself onto the party platform. A new election is called. Downside scenario is either that Cameron carries on for a few more terrible years, or, marginally less worse, dim fascist Theresa May, or, somebody similar like Ruth Davidson, carries on until the next election. At that point it is possible that UKIP will erode the Conservative vote so badly that Labour get in. Then we all move to the Falklands and declare independence.
It’s 43 years, QUET.
I voted out. If there’s an in victory, I predict mass defections to UKIP from Cameron’s ersatz Conservatives. The conduct of Cameron and Osborne has been absolutely disgusting. Neither will be forgiven – Gideon can kiss off any prospects of becoming Tory leader. Dave Snooty really is the heir to the vile Anthony Bliar, of that we can be completely certain.
In the public/charity/University sector, as well as multi-national corporations, it’s overwhelmingly Remain, and there is a great hostility to Leavers. It’s bordering on religious now. I’m getting lots of desperate e-mails imploring me to vote Remain.
So I think there will defintely be some shy Leavers in that world. But probably not enough. Group-think pervades those worlds, and most of the people in them, despite their preening regard for their own intellects, uncritically accept what the Guardian tells them. So Project Fear has probably won it for Cameron (as Richard North predicted long ago). But probably at the expense of his own political career, and possibly his own party. Millions of Conservative voters will never vote for the Cons again if he or Osborne stay in charge, and probably still won’t even if he’s deposed. UKIP can benefit enormously from this, although at the moment they seem a pretty hopeless rabble.
(It’s very unlikely, but remotely possible, that a big party upheaval could see the Tory moderate Cameroons join forces with the Labour Blairites in a new party. That could be a major election-winning machine, although it could end up, as most new parties do, as a Lib Dem-type flop).
Interesting, perhaps re-inventing the square wheel (aka the Lib Dems)?
Following on from what Cal just said about shy Leavers, I am retired and living at home, so have no work colleagues to defy. But, as a personal blogger, I get lots of press releases, which are often, as now, quite revealing. The London business world, big business and small business, is now imploring me to vote Remain, basically (I surmise) because they are scared of the dislocation to their businesses.
Winning general elections won’t matter a damn – unless a pro independence party like UKIP gets most seats. Government will be coming almost entirely from the EU politburo. That was what has been the stakes in this referendum.
If the British people have voted for their own destruction today, they’ll sure get it. The only comfort for outers will be the hollow one of being able to tell these ignorant idiots – “told you.”
Re Project Fear, I dissent from the widespread belief, expressed again in this thread, that voting out of fear is a bad thing. Most votes are usually about which party or proposition repels you most, and why is that wrong? Because of Fear, for instance, Britain recoiled from the prospect of Britain turning into a South American shambles at the end of the seventies. Many of the votes for Thatcher were because of fear of what Labour would unleash. Was that somehow ignoble? I don’t think so.
Now, my only regret about Project Fear is that Leave didn’t/doesn’t-now have a decent version of this up and running themselves. THEY should have been putting up posters of Black Holes and saying: vote for the EU and you are voting for THIS. I agree with the optimism of, e.g. Dan Hannan, about life outside the EU. I just wish the Leavers had banged on more on the horrors of the EU, particularly financial. Not just in the form of how many millions we “pay each year”, but of how much worse things things could soon get in the EU. The Leavers did go on about Immigration, understandably. But the Remainers seem to have won the economic argument. At best it should have been a draw, along the lines of: a bit of a jolt in the short run, but Leave far better in the long run.
Make that “a” South American shambles. (Or rather, please don’t.) [Done – NS]
Brian, did you really mean “imploring me to vote Leave” in your comment of 2:36 above? It makes more sense if you meant “Remain”.
Caption for the Mirror:
“THIS IS WHERE THE MONEY GOES”
Here is what you will be Remaining in.
Perfectly done, Mr. Ed!
Natalie. No. I implore you to correct that. [Done – NS]
Good news: it is now … I was about to say pissing down … but I know of nobody who can piss like this. Bucketing down. In London. Since London is strongly for Remain (see my error above – now or soon corrected I trust), and since this looks like being very close … Even better. I just heard some thunder.
The weather is less bad in the rest of the country, where the Leavers all live. This I know, because I follow county cricket.
“Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow! You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout. Till you have drench’d our polling stations, …”
Or if you prefer something less dramatic: “Come friendly rain, and fall on London.”
WRT the polls, i have never understood the theory that polls indicating one side will win, discourage the other side from voting. It is true that there is less of an incentive to vote if you know you are going to lose anyway; but there is also less of an incentive to vote if you know that you are going to win anyway!
Is there any empirical evidence that people who expect to lose become less likely to vote?
I didn’t bother to vote. Too tired and don’t care.
I had the same thought, as I am now standing at cannon street waiting with thousands others for services to resume, not yet having cast my vote. But yes, if I don’t get home in time then that will be true for at least two remainers too
I would have voted Leave some time ago, but because I live overseas and didn’t bother registering to vote for either the 2001 or 2005 elections (when I would have been voting in safe labour seats anyway), I am consequently ineligible to vote online, much to my irritation.
Pardone, there is still time. Please please please make the effort if you are able to. Vote leave
“I had the same thought, as I am now standing at cannon street waiting with thousands others for services to resume, not yet having cast my vote. But yes, if I don’t get home in time then that will be true for at least two remainers too”
On past form (re-opening the registration web site)the Gov will re-open the polling stations to gather up all remainers unable to vote.
Mr Ed, as you can see I have added your caption. If anyone is on Twitter or Facebook (and is “out” as a Leaver, you brave soul), consider putting that out as a meme. There’s still time.
My Facebook connections (Publishing and print media) have been bordering on hysterical for the last few weeks. Today they have gone into meltdown.
They are TERRIFIED of an OUT vote. It’s like Victorian fainting ladies. People saying they can’t work, can’t think. And the open nannying is astonishing. “But who’ll look after me….?!!” they squeal. It’s like our University system has created two generations of adult babies.
No wonder the Islamists scoff at our weakness.
Prediction: if Leave wins, Cameron goes, Johnson becomes Conservative leader, UKIP proclaims victory and disbands as most UKIPers join or rejoin the Conservatives.
Because UKIP is not really a viable political party, even at the level of the Liberal Democrats, it is more of a “Ginger Group”. Once a major party has adopted UKIP’s platform, the best way to advance that platform is in that party.
What is your prediction should Remain win? Personally speaking as an ex-UKIP member I have no intention of joining the Conservative party in either eventuality.
It seems to me that the mere fact that you’re holding this referendum at all is beneficial. At present, it appears that whichever side wins, the vote will be roughly 51%-49%, perhaps even closer. If almost half of the electorate favors Leave, that says a lot. It will probably terrify the political class sufficiently that they will grow some spines and more seriously fight back against the more egregious diktats emanating from Brussels (such as this lunacy). Or perhaps even simply ignoring some of them entirely (such as the fishing rules which have so decimated that industry and the communities which depend upon it), and daring the EU to do something about it. And it will certainly embolden the Leave movements in other countries, which could ultimately put an end to the whole misbegotten experiment, even if the UK isn’t the proximate cause. Ultimately, even if Remain wins the sheer number of Leave supporters demonstrates that their position isn’t irrational or completely outside of mainstream thought (even if it is beyond the comprehension of those in the leftist echo chamber). I support Leave, but losing the referendum won’t be the end of the world, or even of the UK; far from it.
Best of luck today.
Brian:
I prefer “It was a dark and stormy night”.
I voted leave. I work for a large US owned company in the City and was pretty appalled to be sent an email this week from our (US) CEO extolling the virtues of Remain. Comments were allowed on the article publishing this on our intranet but unsurprisingly no-one felt able or willing to put their head above the parapet to set out an alternative view. I felt like linking to the Boris Wembley closing speech. My office is pretty much remain but I suspect a number of those staying silent are for leave.
Thank you Natalie, and Craig, I suspect your CEO also feels that he is being observed for the right attitude, or feels the need to demonstrate it.
>It seems to me that the mere fact that you’re holding this referendum at all is beneficial. At present, it appears that whichever side wins, the vote will be roughly 51%-49%, perhaps even closer. If almost half of the electorate favors Leave, that says a lot. It will probably terrify the political class sufficiently that they will grow some spines and more seriously fight back against the more egregious diktats emanating from Brussels (such as this lunacy). Or perhaps even simply ignoring some of them entirely (such as the fishing rules which have so decimated that industry and the communities which depend upon it), and daring the EU to do something about it. And it will certainly embolden the Leave movements in other countries, which could ultimately put an end to the whole misbegotten experiment, even if the UK isn’t the proximate cause. Ultimately, even if Remain wins the sheer number of Leave supporters demonstrates that their position isn’t irrational or completely outside of mainstream thought (even if it is beyond the comprehension of those in the leftist echo chamber). I support Leave, but losing the referendum won’t be the end of the world, or even of the UK; far from it.
I think this is very optimistic. If Remain win the Establishment will take it as simply a win, end of story, a vindication (however tight the margin), and to the victor will go the spoils. (If they win by more than 4% then they’ll treat it as a huge landslide.) They will regard Leave as finished, and to be forgotten. They will fight tooth and nail to avoid offering another referendum for as long as they can. They certainly will not grow any spines; it’s more liklely that they’ll roll over more.
The EU, meanwhile, will think that the Leave movement in the UK is finished. They lost. They won’t get another chance for years, or decades. The EU can basically do what it wants now (or so it will think). The UK will no longer have anything to bargain with, so they can be ignored. (Even with the referendum they were basically ignored — if the referendum goes Remain then the EU has even less reason to bother listening to the UK).
But you’re right about referendum emboldening the Leave movement in other countries, and this could be the undoing of the EU. Even if Remain win, there will be big demands to hold as vote in other countries (especially if the vote is close), and I reckon Leave could win in a few of the big ones, which would certainly throw a huge spanner in the works. (Although the EU might just enforce a re-vote in those countries — they coulnd’t get away with that in the UK, but they might try it on elsewhere).
Brian wrote,
“Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow! You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout. Till you have drench’d our polling stations,”
A portent of doom perhaps. I hope not.
‘Like a cow pissin’ on a flat rock. We yank southerners have a colorful language.
I still find it hilarious that “News” magazines and papers openly endorse political positions and politicians, which of course renders their claims of unbiased objective news gathering, well, hilarious.
“Absurd” isn’t a strong enough word.
Currently trying to remain friends with a German friend who has taken my decision to vote leave a little personally. Oh dear…
QET, robots classified as ‘electonic persons’ for the sake of a SS tax on each robot.
When you’re a “Big Brother” despot with absolute power, nothing can be too aburd to impose on the minions, like reducing your allowance of chocolate whilst Winston tells everyone that their allotment has increased.
Rob Fisher wrote,
Like the Social Justice Warriors, some people find freedom offensive. How dare you vote to not be a thrall. Of course he took it personal; statists identify with state. To collectivists, the very idea of personal sovereignty is a threat to the state.
Then you need a better class of friend.
>Currently trying to remain friends with a German friend who has taken my decision to vote leave a little personally. Oh dear…
Tell him he needs to get out too!
I also have a German friend who is of the ‘oh we must all get along now and do the consensus, ja’. Brilliant bloke and I love him but this whole attitude, while very sensitive in life generally, is not useful when what is required is to go against the consensus. Not spoken to him recently but hopefully all will be ok. I’ll give him a free pass…others..no..I’m getting older and I don’t have much time.
I am immensely depressed about my friends and colleagues. I bet none of them spent even half an hour researching the issues. It is all emotional shit about ‘togetherness good/separation bad’. For Christ sakes, most of my colleagues have first class degrees in maths and there is even a Phd or two. That they should fall hook line and sinker for Cameron’s bullshit is shocking. That such a dim motherfucker should ever hold the office of Prime Minister is beyond me. He has disgraced the office he holds. It is obvious that history won’t be kind to him – but hopefully there is some swifter pain than that. If Boris wants to do the Brutus thing that’s cool with me. I never thought I’d say this, but today I would even vote for the Labour party in order to get rid of him.
If you hear a story about some fellow jumping off London Bridge on his way to work tomorrow odds are that was me. Only joking, shouldn’t drink on a school night. Anyway, my biology teacher in high school told my class that if you ever wanted to kill yourself you should open the windows in winter (and turn off the heating, obviously) and drink a bottle of vodka. Yes, he did say those words.
>I am immensely depressed about my friends and colleagues. I bet none of them spent even half an hour researching the issues. It is all emotional shit about ‘togetherness good/separation bad’. For Christ sakes, most of my colleagues have first class degrees in maths and there is even a Phd or two. That they should fall hook line and sinker for Cameron’s bullshit is shocking.
I discovered that about academics a long time ago. Because they consider themselves superior most of them don’t even bother finding out anything about politics or economics or global warming or whatever. They just assume their instincts are right. I found it shocking when I first started talking to left-wing academics how little they actually knew about politics, despite their extremely virulent political opinions. (That didn’t apply so much to politics lecturers, of course, they knew more, but they were obviously biased and would blatantly twist everything left in a comical way that they were completely oblivious to.)
You have to always remember that academics are just the old priesthood transplanted to modern times.
Gibraltar 95.9% Remain.
I always knew the Daily Mirror was full of shit, but did they really need to print a giant arsehole on their front page?
Mr Ed, that isn’t too much of a surprise given their situation. I think this might be closer than the most recent polls have suggested – but no idea which way it will go in the end.
In more important news, I collected my new living room curtains from the shop today. I’ve just put them up and THEY FIT PERFECTLY!!!!
Mr Ed, that is a result I could care less about. Totally obvious. The question may as well have stated ‘do you want to get invaded by Spain’.
Don’t read too much into this, but the Guardian says:
“Leave have won a big victory in Sunderland.
Remain: 51,930 (61%)
Leave: 82,394 (39%)
Leave were expected to win here, according to the Hanretty figures, but not by a margin as big as this. It looks as if the early Remain optimism was premature.”
(Update: Ted Schuerzinger has pointed out that the Guardian transposed the results. It was actually Leave who won on 61%.)
Note that the Guardian got the percentages backward.
Freudian slip!
I figured it was just their typically shoddy reporting. 😉
The Telegraph is reporting that Kettering voted 61% Leave, 39% Remain.
I should imagine that the PMO will be pleased.
It’s getting on for 2am in London, which is where I am, and I’m about to go to bed. It would appear that it’s pretty much a dead heat, with maybe Leave having its nose in front. But it fluctuates, depending on which votes have been all counted, where.
The pound has fallen off a (small) cliff, after early results. The mere possibility that Leave MIGHT win has freaked a lot of people out, the world over.
They’re saying Wales has voted for Leave. I did not know that was a possibility. But I live in London. I know little of things beyond the M25.
It looks like my London weather reporting was very pertinent. Seriously, that was one of the heaviest downpours I can recall in London, ever. Contrary to many cliches, it doesn’t rain all that much in London, but my goodness it rained today. It’s been a generally wet June, actually. If this rain depresses turnout in London, that could prove decisive. Crucially, it bucketted, but then it abated. They even managed a shortened limited overs cricket match at Lord’s, during the period when the polls were still open.
A bloke with grey hair whom I’m never seen before says that when Leave wins, it wins by more than was expected. When Remain wins, it wins by less than was expected.
On ITV Remain is blue, and Leave is red. On the BBC, Leave is blue, and Remain is yellow. Make of that what you will.
Leave is kind of First Between Equals, as of now.
There’s huge ‘clumping’ in the results so far, just as I have been saying in the last week.
Yes, it seems to be a tight referendum, which will be interesting in itself. Eurobureaucrats are already talking about the need for reform, whatever the result.
I predict that London will secede from Britain, and stay in the EU, and the rest of England (and Wales) will Leave. A win-win result, surely?
>Eurobureaucrats are already talking about the need for reform, whatever the result.
Some of them might be saying that now. But it won’t be long before it’ll be business as usual if they win. (Maybe they’ll toss a few pretend bones.)
There’s all these headlines about the POUND CRASHING!!! And graphics of cliffs. But when you look at the actual figures we’re talking 3-4 cents in the pound. Which is pretty much nothing on a slightly longer-time frame. (And of course there are upsides to a weaker pound anyway.)
So not a cliff, really. More like jumping out of your front window.
Again from the Guardian:
Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead.
Wow!
If Leave wins, i may go and see The Free State of Jones tomorrow (in the USA) instead of at the weekend.
Sleep impossible. I’m going to start a new thread.
Good news on the curtains, Natalie! When will ‘The Guardian’ be round for a photo?
Don’t know what the time difference is, but the US pre-market futures are down quite a bit. Leave is probably winning.
One myth must be nailed – the myth that the Labour Party (the “Daily Mirror” and co) did not fight strongly for “Remain”.
They did come out and fight.
The people I was fighting in Kettering (the people who screamed “Nazi” and “murderer” at me over the last few days leafleting) were all LABOUR people.
The anti independence posters in people’s widows were all LABOUR posters.
The anti independence leaflets were all LABOUR leaflets.
Do not let history be lied about.
The campaign ON THE GROUND to stay in the E.U. was a LABOUR campaign.
Caption: “This is where you’ll take it if you vote remain”
p.s. late to the game I know, but I’m in a different time zone; no anti-gay message or thought intended, only a play on an old New York saying