We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

Heading for the Pearl delta

I am going to be in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau and thereabouts from Friday evening until October 26. If we have any readers there who feel like meeting up for a meal/drink, please let me know. I have been to these places on multiple occasions before and so do know my way round, but if anyone can think of anything particularly idiosyncratic (or even particularly new) that I may want to do or see, also please let me know.

Samizdata quote of the day

A government that is big enough to give you all you want is big enough to take everything you have

– Barry Goldwater

I stumbled across this evergreen Goldwater remark on Gmail, where it is also quote of the day. A somewhat surprising choice for them, considering Google’s rather obvious political biases.

Executive action

The inquest into the death of Jean Charles de Menezes today heard there were “chaotic” scenes in the police control room coordinating the pursuit that ended with him being shot dead.

A detective superintendent from special branch, identified only as Brian, said he was not even aware the Brazilian electrician had been identified as the failed suicide bomber Hussain Osman.

The officer, who was in control of administrative tasks in the control room, said: “I was certainly aware that a male had been shot. The fact that he was unidentified, from what I could gather from the room, was how it felt at the moment.”

(Guardian)

Gordon Brown claims that the expropriation was necessary because Iceland planned to default on British Icesave accounts. […]

Brown’s response? To seize the UK assets, not of the bank that ran Icesave, but of a wholly unrelated bank, Kaupthing, thereby collapsing it. Icelanders, who had been expecting to negotiate a guarantee to British depositors – eventually agreed on Monday – were stunned. They couldn’t bring themselves to believe that the leader of a country they admired would destroy their last solvent bank simply to give himself what Labour MPs have since called “his Falklands moment”.

(Daniel Hannan, Times)

At least they shot de Menezes in the head. For a business whose bank has been terminated on executive orders, the experience is rather like how I imagine it feels to drown in your own blood.

Of course if you have done nothing wrong you have nothing to fear. The government is benevolent, and always acts in the best interests of everyone. Foreigners are a threat. We must remember that. The government says so. So it must be true.

So, you wanna go to space?

I am sure most of our readers are not amongst those who can write checks for $200,000 to fly Virgin Galactic a few years from now. The first will be ‘high flyers’ of the sort who always subsidize new market frontiers. They will pay the high price to be early adopters and by doing so they will generate the capital required to lower costs as companies begin to fight for market share. That is capitalism at work and it is just the way we like it.

Markets have a certain ponderous inevitability. They take time. If you have neither the money nor the desire to wait twenty years, there is another option.

At this point I must stop a moment and note that I am on the Board of Directors of the National Space Society (NSS) and have been part of the space activist cadre since Adam first looked up and dreamed of giant space colonies at Lagrange 5. So I really want lots of folk to look at this competition and join in.

This is not a lottery of any kind. The NSS and Virgin Galactic have worked together to make it possible for one person to earn their way onto a SpaceShipTwo flight near the end of the decade. All you have to do is join NSS and work your butt off in the community promoting the future of humans in space. The person who is judged to have done this most successfully will be selected as our Space Ambassador. They will be expected to work even harder at this task upon their return to terra firma.

I will not be signing up myself as I am hoping I will find other ways to earn my way off planet. The point of this initiative is to let folk like you believe you can turn your dreams into reality.

Ad Astra… and next year in L5!

The ‘Paul Marks Plan’ to save the world economy!

The ‘Paul Marks Plan’ to save the world economy is inspired by President Bush and Tim Congdon. I can save the world economy on my own, all I need is the cooperation of the public authorities!

First interest rates must be reduced to a negative level (quite a moderate level, say -0.5% although I would settle for -0.1%) then I will borrow huge sums of money and use some of it to “buy cars” as President Bush has suggested. I will also “buy up every decent security in sight” every time the banks get into trouble – as Tim Congdon has pointed out must be done. But it is the “buy cars” suggestion that has really inspired me, and for a special reason. You see I can not drive – and so I would smash up the cars I bought in car crashes, thus meaning not only would I buy more cars, but the drivers of the cars I smashed into would buy more as well.

It would be a wonderful example of stimulating the economy via consumption. A point that the school of thought led by the late Lord Keynes and the school of thought led by the “monetarist” Tim Congdon are in full agreement upon. And whilst such Chicago School people as the late Milton Friedman might not be wildly happy with the direction of ever greater subsidies for the banks that Tim Congdon has taken “monetarism”, the great Tim would be quick to point out that Milton Friedman would not be able to present clear economic principles showing any error in his conception of money and banking – so it must be okay then.

In case anyone think the above is, er, insane… I would point out that it is more moderate than what the British government has already announced, such as one third of the entire British economy (not the government budget – the entire economy) being pledged to back up the banks.

This goes beyond even what President Bush and Congress have done in the United States. Surely we are moving towards the glorious day, worked for so hard by Tim Congdon, when the entire economy (not just the government budget, but everything) is devoted to subsidising the financial services industry. Let us reject such reactionary nonsense as the principle that every Pound of lending must be from a Pound of real savings. And let us also reject the reactionary principle that if a business goes bust it goes bust – and that a bank is no more entitled to protection from “bankruptcy” than a coal mine is. And, most important of all, let us reject the rigid dogma that once money is lent out the lender does not have it any more – till when, and if, it is paid back.

With ‘advanced banking methods’, backed by government of course, one hundred Pounds of physical savings can be multiplied to vastly more than that in loans. One plus one need not equal two – it can equal any number clever people want it to. And with credit money expansion by the public authorities any problem can be overcome. Credit money expansion, under the control of wise and well paid ‘experts’ of course, can achieve anything and no petty thing like either logic or physical reality can stand in its way.

We can achieve a perpetual motion machine – accept that it will speed up.

Of course scientists might claim both that such a thing was ‘impossible’, and that even if it was not that it would destroy the universe. But so what? If we destroy the universe we can create other universes – by an act of will. After all the physical distance between Chicago and Cambridge already seems to have collapsed.

As President Bush and Tim Congdon have explained – prosperity will return, as long as we pump out enough credit money!

Samizdata quote of the day

“In addition, one should not minimize the great economic achievements of the past 25 years in the form of rapid growth in world GDP, low world inflation, and low unemployment in most countries. Perhaps these achievements will be overshadowed by a deep world recession, but that remains to be seen. If the impact of this financial crisis on the real economy is not both very severe and very prolonged, and time will answer that question, the combination of the past 21/2 decades of remarkable achievement, and the economic turbulence that followed, may still look good when placed in full historical perspective.”

– Gary Becker.

Like Professor Becker, I think fears of a repeat of a 1930s-style depression are unwarranted. What is a serious concern in my mind is the likely explosion of poorly thought-out regulation by politicians who seem to have forgotten how it was often such regulations, as well as lax monetary policy, that is at the crux of the current turmoil.

Jerky delivery

This, by Charles Spencer in the latest Spectator, made me smile:

“This is a time for making the most of small mercies. One of the greatest of these, as the financial system collapses around us, is the splendid joke that is Robert Peston of the BBC. His extraordinarily camp, over-emphatic delivery would be perfect for reporting glitzy Broadway first nights but seems hilariously at odds with worldwide economic catastrophe. Peston has all the glee of the callow cub reporter rejoicing in the size of his scoop while lacking the imagination to understand the anxiety his excitable tales of doom-and-gloom might be causing others.”

I admire the scoop-getting skills of Mr Peston, if not always his analytical skills. Anyway, as Mr Spencer continues:

“Like poor Mr and Mrs Spencer of Claygate, Surrey, for instance, who somehow managed to commit themselves to £40,000 worth of home improvements (double glazing and a new kitchen) just before the current crisis went big time. As I do my lengths at the swimming pool, I sometimes experience a knot of fear forming in my guts. Mercifully, thinking of Peston, an egregious character both Jane Austen and P.G. Wodehouse would have been proud to have invented, makes me laugh and my panic disperses.”

On a nicer note to Robert Peston, however, he has put economics at the top of the BBC news agenda in a way that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Part of this is down to simple events, but part of it is due to Peston’s skills in ferreting out the news, not to mention his status as a friendly journalist to NuLab. Whether this continues if the current bunch get kicked out of Westminster is a moot point.

Surreal contrasts

It has been a memorable weekend for yours truly, nearly all for very nice reasons. Over the past few days, the weather in much of the UK – after a truly crap summer – has been glorious. There are few things to beat than walking along in a leafy park, with the autumn season turning the leaves into golds and reds, then sitting on the side of a river, cold beer in hand, in the company of close friends. I did all that in Cambridge over the weekend. The credit crunch and the worries of the financial world seemed, if only for a few hours, very far away. But then when walking with a friend around the Quad of Pembroke College, I felt as if I could have been in another century.

But perhaps I should have been prepared for a surreal weekend when I opened my mail on Saturday morning. First off, I got a letter from those admirable folk at the NO2ID campaign urging me to help contribute some money. I have already paid over a cheque and was happy to send another (please follow my example). And then I opened another, very different letter, from the UK Department Of Health. The DoH has something called a “Biobank”. This is a government-run research project designed to track the health of a cohort of the UK population aged between 40 and 69. As I and my wife are both in our early 40s, we are obviously in the cohort. I was informed that a “provisional appointment” had already been made on my behalf and that I nevertheless had the option to refuse. I have refused. While checking the health of certain people and attempting to judge their vulnerability to certain diseases or conditions can be a worthwhile thing for say, a private insurer to do, I had no desire to go along with a government programme. The reason is not simply that it would involve acquiring yet more intimate health details on myself, but recent embarrassing losses of government data give me no confidence that such details will not be lost. Also, one has to ask to what purpose will the “Biobank’s” findings be put? Presumably, to help drive government policy to cajole, encourage or indeed coerce UK citizens to change their personal habits. I consider that taking part in such a campaign would involve my giving my sanction to such things.

Well, at least I had the option to refuse to take part in this project, which is something. But one wonders how long such indulgence might last. Sooner or later, the DoH might consider it necessary to make involvement in such surveys compulsory.

It is still an enigma

Just when you start believing Russia has returned to its old ways, something like this happens. A religious group attempted to get the license of a TV station pulled because it felt a South Park cartoon was hateful to Christians and Muslims. In return Russians rallied behind South Park, demonstrated, collected signatures on petitions… and… won????

The people’s voice, apparently, was heard. On September 25, Russia’s Federal Competitive Bidding Commission on Broadcasting voted unanimously to recommend that 2×2’s license be renewed. The final decision is up to another federal agency, but it is expected to follow the recommendation. 2×2, in turn, will comply with the commission’s request to expand its programming to include TV movies and non-animated series, as stated in its official description; the channel’s general director Roman Sarkisov has promised that the new fare will be “faithful to the style of 2×2.” Meanwhile, South Park stays on the air except for the “offending” episode, which has been shelved pending further investigation of “extremism.”

I think this shows the danger of oversimplifying your view of a large nation with a complex political history. Russia is what it is and does not fit neatly into any of the categories we have heretofore used to describe it. Russia is no longer a simple ‘evil empire’. Today it is simultaneously many things, some of which are opposites. It is a place where organized crime has great power; where ex-KGB officers long for the old days; where very smart and well educated people create new ideas and companies; where old imperialist ideas and suspicion of foreign influence exist and the Orthodox church has regained much power over society. It is such a hodge-podge of pulls and counter-pulls that virtually anything I can say about it will be wrong.

This of course makes it a fascinating place to watch.

Because innovation loves a crisis

Don’t be gloomy because innovation loves a crisis. Jonathan Schwartz of Sun emailed his company pointing out that now was the time to go on the offensive. The necessities enforced by the credit crunch will be the mother of invention. To save money, companies will be forced to automate, innovate and think about how they sell in order to make that profit. Less capital means fewer customers means greater competition.

You’re not going to hear from any of our customers, “let’s stop buying technology and hire more people to do the work.” They’re going to default to the opposite – automating work, and finding answers and opportunities with technology, not headcount. And in that process lies an opportunity for Sun – to engage with customers in driving down cost, driving up utilization, and driving the changes that yield immediate and long term benefit. The right question for every customer you meet is – “how can I help?” I assure you, they’ll have ideas for us. And we have no shortage of ideas for them. Personally, I’m reaching out to customers and partners just to check in and offer help – I’d recommend you do the same.

At the end of the day, the public debates may not really matter. They are there for politicians and economists to weave a myth of control and pretend that they steer our lives, using our money to justify their drivel.

It is the private debates amongst companies, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs that really matter. With less money to go around, there is a strong incentive to accelerate change and adopt business models that profit from the information revolution rather than kick against it. As an example, the mainstream media may enter its death rattle as consumers shift towards online business, because it is cheaper, better and quicker.

The downside is that a general downturn may cause research programmes which do not have an immediate or predictable return to falter, as sources of capital dry up. Therefore, the immediate consequences of this crisis could be an acceleration of information technology permeating everyday lives but a longer curve for the development of nanotechnology, stem cell research, robotics and other technologies.

Indian moon probe

The people at ISRO, the Indian Space Research Organization, have scheduled their first lunar probe for October 22nd.

You can read the Times of India and The Hindu for more information.

I sometimes wonder if we will see a second ‘Race To The Moon’, this time betwixt India and China for pretty much the same reasons as the first. If so, I hope to be sitting in the lounge watching the news with a Guinness in hand after flying Virgin Galactic to the Bigelow Luna.

Speaking of tourism… Richard Garriot flies to the space station today. There is no bar there, but hopefully the Russians keep a little stash of vodka for ‘medicinal purposes’.

Richard’s aunch occurred successfully at 3am EDT. Docking will happen Tuesday and there will be live coverage on NASA Select starting at 0530 EDT.

I am a sovereign wealth fund

I am a sovereign wealth fund. This is a position that I never expected to be in. I and every other British taxpayer.

I have been told that this was necessary or indescribable consequences entailing the destruction of my life and welfare would have followed. This hypothesis was not tested, due to the supposed costs, and, therefore, I became a sovereign wealth fund.

This sovereign wealth fund is not like other sovereign wealth funds, in that the Chairman is one Gordon Brown and the money that he uses to purchase whatever assets he likes is mine. This does not give me confidence, and I suspect the wealth in the fund will decline in value. This is what Gordon Brown does.

There will be a shareholders meeting in 2010. I think we need to vote for a return of all assets to the shareholders. Voting for these managers certainly has not worked and the alternative consultancy offers more of the same.