We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

This is interesting: a shift in Ukraine

I have hesitated to post much about Ukraine lately as reliable information is hard to come by. However, the Telegram channels I have long watched on both sides, and personal contacts I have, are awash with similar reports from their own sources.

Make of this what you will.

A war a day

Friday 27th February 2026: Pakistan declares state of ‘open war’ after bombing major Afghan cities

Saturday 28th February 2026: US and Israel launch attack on Iran, as Trump says ‘major combat operations’ under way

Lot of it about these days. I was going to make a rather tasteless metaphor about it being like the Gorton and Denton by-election, with the Greens winning and Reform coming second, displacing the established parties. But of course the surprise war – to all but the very old – was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given Iran’s participation in proxy wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and its hostile actions against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and probably other countries that I’ve forgotten (even leaving out Western ones), I’m surprised this didn’t happen earlier. As for Pakistan and their former protégés the Taliban, he who sups with the devil should have a long spoon.

Update: Israel says that Ayatollah Khamenei has been found dead in the rubble of his compound. For the sake of the Iranian people, so many of whom have been murdered by Khamenei’s regime in the recent protests, I hope that this is true. In contrast, Zack Polanski of the Green Party says “This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.” Illegal, Zack? If the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran wanted the protection of international law, they should have renounced and made recompense for taking diplomats hostage. In the absence of that renunciation the international community should have put them down like rabid dogs forty-seven years ago.

The impact of Starlink

Preston Stewart has some interesting reportage about Russia being abruptly cut off from Starlink.

Whilst this is fascinating from a technical and military point of view, it also brings into focus the sheer power of one man for good or ill… Elon Musk.

Samizdata quote of the day – The Two Mearsheimers

There have been so many criticisms of Mearsheimer that I doubt anyone cares at this point. But I wanted to raise something rarely mentioned: M. is not actually making a realist argument. Which is ironic given how much damage he has done to the realist brand.

I’m going to share a secret only political scientists know about. There are actually two John J. Mearsheimers. The first one wrote The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001) and says powerful states are dissatisfied by nature, and will go to war whenever they can. The second one, born in 2014, disagrees. Yes, states go to war because it’s the central feature of political life — except Russia, who goes to war because of American liberals. The first Mearsheimer is a theorist of international anarchy. The second is a moralist of American sin. The two have never met, but if they did they would hate each other.

Seva Gunitsky

Happy Soviet Union Collapse Day

Just a reminder that no matter how bad things get, this too shall pass

Samizdata quote of the day – Rycroft Review cannot ignore Russian influence over UK energy policy

The Rycroft Review comes as the Head of MI6 has also warned about Russian propaganda and influence operations that “crack open and exploit fractures within societies.”

But if the review only confines itself to elections, party finance and overt corruption, it will miss one of the most consequential forms of foreign influence in recent decades: sustained Russian attempts to shape UK energy markets and energy policymaking.

It is now unarguable that decisions taken by ministers in the mid-2000s and 2010s left Britain dangerously exposed when gas prices surged in 2021–22. During this period, there were live debates on core questions of energy security: the future of strategic gas storage at Rough (closed down in 2017), nuclear policy, maximising recovery in the North Sea following the Wood Review (2013), the 2015 decision to end coal-fired generation, and the failure to develop UK shale gas. Through a combination of indecision and damaging policy choices, Britain’s exposure to international gas markets increased sharply.

Maurice Cousins

How to win the Black Sea without a Navy

Another interesting update from ace spreadsheet-head Perun:

Mundane corruption

A Russian describes day to day ordinary mundane corruption, in a country where bribery is necessary to get things done.

My cousin had surgery once. Official wait time: half a year. Unofficial wait time with an envelope: three days.

It is not all good news though. The video has some more scary examples involving the education system, police and general government bureaucracy.

Samizdata quote of the day – Putin is warning Britain but we’re not listening

What Putin understands – and what Britain refuses to face – is that Europe is vulnerable in ways that matter more than tanks or troop numbers. Russia’s president does not need to defeat Nato militarily to cause chaos. As he has already shown through repeated greyzone attacks, Europe’s power grids, subsea cables, energy systems and communications networks offer targets far easier to strike, far harder to defend and politically far more disruptive. Putin’s warning this week was a reminder that Russia knows exactly where our exposed nerves lie.

Sam Olsen (£)

The deep betrayal of Nathan Gill

I strongly recommend this article by Gawain Towler about the unedifying case of traitor Nathan Gill.

Discussion point: Trump’s proposed Russia-Ukraine peace deal

The Telegraph reports,

The United States has threatened to cut off weapons and intelligence to Ukraine unless it signs Donald Trump’s peace deal by next Thursday.

Sources said Ukraine was under greater pressure from Washington to bow to the US president’s demands than in previous negotiation efforts.

“They want to stop the war and want Ukraine to pay the price,” one of the sources told Reuters.

Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday he would use the plan as the basis for negotiations with Russia but Kyiv has warned its red lines must not be crossed in any peace deal.

The Ukrainian leader spoke to his European allies on Friday, including Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, who “welcomed efforts of the US” but called for a “just and lasting peace” for Ukraine.

Mr Trump’s 28-point peace plan is largely favourable to Russia, giving Moscow more Ukrainian territory than it currently possesses and readmission to the G7.

On Friday, the Kremlin maintained that it had not received Mr Trump’s peace plan but warned Mr Zelensky must negotiate “now” or risk losing more territory.

The part I have put in bold type looks alarming. On the other hand, the British press, most definitely including the Telegraph, continually tries to make Trump look as bad as possible. In the first few months after Putin invaded, Ukraine’s resolute defence against the odds saved the country from annihilation – but as the war drags on its position seems to be gradually weakening. What do you think? Is this the best deal Ukraine is likely to get?

Is Ukraine changing the face of war?

This is a very interesting video by David Kirichenko…