We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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Some interesting observations from the good folks as Fevered Rants regarding the prospect of unmanned aircraft being the wave of the future. Is the manned combat aircraft soon to be a thing of the past?
I agree that we will be seeing more and more of a role for UAVs but there are also some serious weaknesses in the theory that they will completely supplant manned fighters. Against the likes of Iraq, Serbia and Afghanistan circa 2001, UAV’s have much to commend them. Yet sooner or later (probably later) the USA will have to fight an enemy who will have access to technology much closer in quality to that which is available to America itself…which means high quality sophisticated electronic warfare (EW). One of the realities of EW is that you can never be quite sure of what the enemy can do until he does it and it is a hell of a lot cheaper to jam the controls of a UAV than it is to fire a missile at one. However the only way to completely jam a manned aircraft is with a fast moving object (like a missile or cannon shell).
Calling all pedantic obsessives who read the Samizdata.
I have had two e-mails from eagle-eyed blog readers with way too much time in their hands. Both asked me why I have been referring to Northern Alliance General Daoud Khan as General Daoud whilst calling other Generals by their surnames (i.e. General Dostam, General Musharraf, General Franks)?
Well, because everyone else has been calling him General Daoud.
But that got me thinking…why?
Then I realised the answer: the surname name Khan in that part of the world is rather like Smith in the English speaking world. There are two Generals called Khan in the Northern Alliance: The Tajik Daoud Khan from the Panshir Valley (who just captured Konduz) and the Herati Ismail Khan from Herat in the north-west of Afghanistan (who captured Herat from the Taliban a few weeks ago).
So now you know.
… don’t leave home without ’em.
For many years, some elements within the US military have argued that due to the range of modern jet fighters and the advent of in-flight refueling, the era of the aircraft carrier is over. The resources for these vasty expensive assets would be better spent on the USAF. Similarly the US Marine Corps is a force without a mission. Why bother with seaborne forces when Rangers etc. can be flown to a target from land bases?
Well, as we can see, it was the USN F-18 and F-14’s that gained air superiority over Afghanistan, not the USAF… and it is the USMC, which is part of the Navy, that has been airlifted off aircraft carriers and helicopter carriers into a land locked central Asian theatre of operations. This was in fact the longest range combat helicopter insertion in military history.
Hopefully this will once and for all put paid to the idea that either large aircraft carriers or the US Marine Corps are a waste of resources. For strategic, operational and tactical flexibility, with the ability to respond to unexpected threats in unexpected places, the USMC and the aircraft carrier are the perfect tools.
An article by Tunku Varadarajan, deputy editorial features editor of The Wall Street Journal, discusses this strange incident.
Yesterday, in a conversation with a highly placed diplomat from the region, I learned enough to be able to assert that all these reports are entirely correct. Pakistani air force helicopters and transport craft did, indeed, ferry out nearly 200 regular men and officers of the Pakistan army–including two brigadiers. A large number of ex-servicemen were also evacuated in this manner. According to the diplomat, “this could not have been done without the specific approval and connivance of the Bush administration.” The U.S. controls the skies over Kunduz, and it is unlikely that Pakistani craft would have flown into the zone without attracting U.S. attention.
So there does seem to be mounting evidence that not only is the whole incident now a certainty but that it was mounted by the Pakistani airforce.
Varadarajan also asks:
This affair raises intriguing, and worrying, questions. First: What were these Pakistani soldiers doing in Kunduz? And second, why did the U.S. choose to turn a blind eye to their rescue?
Frankly the answer to that seems pretty obvious to me. Let’s examine what we know so far.
The first report of this astonishing tale came prior to the fall of Konduz from forward combat elements of General Daoud’s Northern Alliance army, who were telling David Chater of SkyNews that there were aircraft flying in and out of Konduz at night. Chater is actually by far the best source we have so far as not only was he in Konduz hard on the heals of the lead elements of the Northern Alliance, but immediately started interviewing everyone who would stand still long enough for him to stick a microphone in their face. People in Konduz all confirmed the basic facts of the flights to him but everyone had wildly different ideas as to what it all meant. However the general consensus in Konduz was that the people being evacuated were the hardcore Al Qaeda fighters. Chater even interviewed the rather grumpy General Daoud Khan himself, who was none too pleased about what had happened. Daoud’s remarks that it is was the Pakistani Airforce were the first fairly authoritative comments we heard (live over the satellite). The fact ground fire from his forces had driven off the attempt to mount a fourth sortie indicates that if he was privy to what was happening (and it seems he probably was), he was sure as hell not going to cooperate regardless of what deal the USA and Pakistan had struck. It must be remembered that Daoud regards Pakistan as his sworn enemies. This is because without the machinations of the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence service), the Taliban would have never taken over Afghanistan in the first place. Afghan warlords are not known for their forgiving nature.
Ok, so where does that leave us? If Debka are correct about the presence of a significant ISI and Pakistani army presence trapped in the Konduz-Khanabad pocket (see previous article), the whole covert airlift starts to make sense.
It is clearly not in American interests to see Pakistan’s military ruler General Pervez Musharraf suffer any major political embarrassments: for better or for worse, the support or at least acquiescence of Pakistan is an absolute prerequisite for US military operations within Afghanistan. Thus the USA has no desire to see the Northern Alliance make major political hay at Pakistan’s expense by parading captured ISI people and maybe a few Pakistani army brigadiers in front of the world’s press. Pervez Musharraf took control of Pakistan in an army coup d’etat and thus it is upon the Pakistani army that his power depends. The last thing George W. Bush wants in Pakistan right now is for the Pakistani army to suffer a political humiliation. The only beneficiaries of that would be the Pro-Taliban Pakistani Islamic political parties
I am starting to suspect Al Qaeda did not get anyone airlifted out of the Konduz pocket and the only people who did get out were members of the Pakistani security services and armed forces. Of course I have no proof of that, but it is hard to see how anything else makes sense in view of what we know so far.
Debka are also carrying the story of ‘the great escape’ and have guestimated the sort of numbers of Al Qaeda who might have been in the Konduz area when the poop hit the fan and they decided it was time to get the hell out before Rashid Dostam and Daoud Khan of the Northern Alliance over ran the city. Whilst I often disagree with Debka‘s analysis on various issues, their guess in this matter seems as good as anyone else’s. However on their site above the article they show a picture of one of the larger Antonov transport jets. I simply do not believe that one of those could have been landed at Konduz on the dates in question. By all accounts (including remarks by Donald Rumsfeld during a briefing), the airstrip had been heavily bombed and given the close proximity of the Northern Alliance, clearly the late night landing would have been conducted with very minimal lighting.
If Debka are correct that there were actually Pakistani ISI personnel in Konduz, then they must have been frantic to get them out before they fell into the hands of Dostam or Daoud’s boys. Apart from the fact they would possibly die horribly, the prospect of members of the hated ISI being taken alive by the Northern Alliance would have been a severe political embarrassment for Pakistan.
However, mixed among these eager students, were several hundred Pakistani army officers and soldiers in civilian dress, as well as some 120 Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI service agents, representing Pakistan’s secret intelligence and logistical support for the Taliban.
And
After that batch is deducted, a total of 2,500 to 3,000 at most should have been found in the Konduz-Khanabad sector – Saudis, Gulf Arabs, Egyptians, Jordanians, Somalis, Yemenis, Chechens and Palestinians. Intelligence estimates before the Konduz siege put the Saudi extremist component fighting with al Qaeda at 500-700.
Well, if Debka are more or less right (and they are guessing like we all are) about the numbers, and if I am correct that it was a single Antonov An-26 doing these three sorties (and the aborted fourth sortie), then there are still a considerable number of Al Qaeda on the ground in Khanabad (near Konduz) who are probably not having a real good time at the moment.
An Antonov An-26 is usually rated for 40 passengers… assume in an emergency they pack in twice as many people (and from their point of view this was nothing if not an emergency!), and that Pakistan is going to get its own ISI people out first, that still leaves one hell of a lot of Al Qaeda boys well and truly up shit creek.
Hehehehehe.
There is a great little observation on Instapundit noting the fact that militia is not automatically a dirty word to BigMedia(tm) anymore. A short but very interesting piece.
As several people actually have e-mailed the Samizdata to ask, “What’s an Antonov?”… the simple answer is a Russian made transport aircraft. The longer answer is that of the many types of Antonov, reports of the strange going on in Konduz have not specified what kind other than to say it was ‘a big Antonov aircraft’.
I take ‘big’ to mean it was multi-engined, which eliminates the smaller single-engined Antonov An-2 light transports. Likewise I think we can assume no pilot is crazy enough to try to land a large multi-engined jet on an unlit cratered dirt strip at night, so we can safely eliminate any of the large multi-engined Antonov jets.
My guess is that the aircraft in question will turn out to be an Antonov An-26. The Pakistani Airforce operates a single An-26 and it would be perfect for a rough strip landing under less than optimal conditions. My money is on that particular one being the specific aircraft involved in ‘The Great Escape’.
The e-mails keep on rolling in. It seems everyone in bloggerland has an opionion on the ‘great escape’. One such view can be found at Fevered Rants (now that is a great name for a blog).
Thanks to those of you who pointed out to me that there was an article about this in the NY Times (free sign-up required) and that it was mentioned in Canada on CBC early on monday morning.
According to David Rennie in today’s Daily Telegraph, Northern Alliance General Daoud Khan is claiming the Antonov belonged to the Pakistani Airforce and the flights were done with US complicity…and he does not seem too happy about that. Mahmud Shah, a Northern Alliance soldier is quoted:
We had decided to kill all of them, and we are not happy with America for letting the plane come in
Well I’m with you on that one, Mahmud.
Perhaps allowing General Musharraf to send in his airforce to rescue some Pakistani citizens from coming to a sticky end was a way of throwing Pakistan a bone for their continuing support and access to their airspace. It will be interesting to hear the truth when it eventually comes out.
Judging from the number of e-mails I have received with theories of what the the hell might have happened, the story of the audacious escape by Al Qaeda terrorists from Konduz via covert airlift was interesting to many who read this blog. Yet what I really find fascinating is that the US media never did pick up on this story. I would be curious to hear from any Samizdata readers in America if this sorry tale was reported anywhere in the USA.
Now call me naive if you will, but I was under the impression the whole reason for the US involvement in Afghanistan was to apprehend or (preferably) kill as many members of Al Qaeda as humanly possible.
So how in the hell is the escape of three Antonov transport aircraft full of Al Qaeda fighters from Konduz not a major story? David Chater of SkyNews claimed in a new report that I saw at about 14:15 GMT today that the facts were corroborated by source after source within now liberated Konduz, so it really does seem to be a legitimate story. David Williams also mentions this incident in passing today in the Daily Mail. He reports speculation in Konduz that the aircraft were sent by Pakistan to evacuate trapped Pakistani Al Qaeda or Taliban supporters as part of some secret deal (with the US? With the Northern Alliance?). This seems to be just one of several conspiracy theories circulating on the mysterious Konduz airlift during the last days before the Northern Alliance took the city.
Granted, it is not the end of the world and hopefully the US military will catch up with these ‘gentlemen’ again sooner or later, but it is certainly not a trivial incident: so why the deafening silence? CNN have reporter Satinder Bindra in Konduz as well, yet all we get in his reports are soggy ‘human interest’ pieces like “I saw three dead Taliban on the streets today…” (cue video of dead Taliban soldiers covered in flies) and “A Pakistani is taken off in a truck, accused of being a Taliban supporter”…(cue video of terrified bearded Pakistani man being heaved into a truck by grim faced Tajik Northern Alliance soldiers). In short, clueless MTV style photo-journalism rather than serious reporting.
What on earth is going on here? How very curious indeed.
I was reading Ian Murray’s blog The Edge of England’s Sword and followed a link to an interesting article he wrote for Britannica regarding the use of statistics in the victim disarmament debate. It is a excellent piece but the bit that stood out to me was:
The level of contention is so high that acceptance of a set of data by one side often means a knee-jerk rejection by the other. The research of U.S. government agencies should be objective enough to be acceptable to both sides, yet some data produced by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services have been criticized for being biased in favour of gun control.
Now whilst I realise I am a wild-eyed libertarian, it never ceases to amaze me how many people do indeed seem to think that government agencies are somehow less likely to have an axe to grind when they make some pronouncement. States are in no sense a disinterested third party standing apart from sectarian concerns of society. What they are is a group of people defending their own narrow institutional objectives and with a vested interest in finding ‘reasons’ to expand the remit of their authority. To think otherwise is almost hilarious.
Only it is not really funny at all.
20:00 GMT. SkyNews reporters in Konduz are sticking to the story and have uncovered additional details. It is amazing to me how slow the other major media outlets have been at picking up this story! I was just watching CNN and not so much as a whiff of it. For sure, it is the blogs such as this that have run it first on the Internet.
For three nights the Antonov transport aircraft landed at Konduz between US airstrikes (which were said to have been occurring at night at predictable intervals), at around 02:00 am each night. This was attempted again last night but as Northern Alliance forward combat elements had worked their way to the very edge of the airstrip, it was driven off by ground fire and did not land.
It would seem that some Al Qaeda fighters have indeed pulled off a ‘great escape’. A small comfort may be gained from the knowledge that if the Antonov came back again last night unsuccessfully then there still must be Al Qaeda people on the ground who did not make it out on the last flight.
Clearly someone on our side has well and truly dropped the ball for this to have happened. Whilst Al Qaeda may be our loathsome enemies, one can still be struck by the sheer audacity of what they seem to have pulled off. We underestimate these guys at our peril.
Whilst I am only speculating now, my guess is that it was the same aircraft each night (I mean, just how many large Antonov transport aircraft can Al Qaeda have access to?). The fact it came back four times suggests that not only were we not shooting their airlift down but the pilot must have ice water for blood. Landing on an unlit crater pocked airstrip at night, within range of Northern Alliance guns, through a sky ‘owned’ by USN F-18 Hornets? Not a job I would have cared to apply for.
16:15 GMT. A SkyNews reporter was told by one of Northern Alliance General Doud’s forward battlegroup commanders that as his forces rolled into Konduz this morning, they were surprised by the lack of hardcore Al Qaeda fighters. They then discovered from locals that for the last two nights, large Antonov transport aircraft have been landing at the airstrip in the isolated Taliban pocket and airlifting out the trapped foreign Al Qaeda fighters, along with their weapons, flying them to safety under the very noses of the Northern Alliance and Americans.
If this report is true,and the hardcore of Al Qaeda personnel in Konduz have slipped away to points unknown, it is a major setback for the ‘war against terrorism’.
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Who Are We? The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling.
We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
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