Some thoughts about what might happen if the brutes ruling Iran are toppled:
Funding for various Islamist terror networks will decline and that is good for Israel, Lebanon and wider world.
Israel might try and carve out relations with Iran, leading over time to trade and capital flows, development, etc. There are lots of young, smart Iranian people who want something better. Some expat Iranians might return and bring money and investment.
This will hit the Islamists who are allying with the Western hard Left. This is going to badly undermine morale and the sense that their ideology is winning. That is important.
Iran’s relations with Moscow will change, and become more difficult. This might further tilt the scales against Putin, although that is not something I predict with much confidence.
On balance, this is also a negative for China, assuming that Iran moves in a slightly more liberal direction (I use that word with due care and attention).
The Gulf states might benefit in some ways but not in others. Saudi Arabia, UAE etc have benefited in recent years from expanded links with the West, in part because they were seen as the relatively sane folk in the room (particularly, the UAE). If Iran were to turn more friendly, more pro-capitalist, etc, it creates more competition for the Gulf states. Competition is generally a good thing.
Can we call it “Persia” again?
This is entirely dependent upon (assuming the mullahs do fall…) what steps in the fill the vacuum.
The arab spring does not give a warming precedent – the Islamists will not want to let this go
The Pedant-General – Sunni Islam is weak in Iran, and Shia Islam is associated with the regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) that has so savagely misgoverned Iran for almost 47 years.
So Johnathan Pearce is correct.
The fall of the regime would be bad news for Islam (remember the Shia IRI regime has happily funded Sunni terrorist groups around the world – not just Shia ones), bad news for Mr Putin (as the Islamic Republic of Iran is a key friend of his) and a bad news for the People’s Republic of China – the main enemy of the West.
Let us hope that the IRI regime falls – and the people of Ancient Persia (Iran) can be free.
The problem may be that someone could be in a position to climb to power and be just as bad, or even worse, than the ousted regime. The overthrow of the Shah was classed as a popular uprising, and look what happened. Many overthrown regimes in that part of the world resulted in something worse.
One can only hope that there is someone who can really unite this fabulous country, and bring true democracy.
They are chanting in the street to bring back Reza Pahlavi. This does not seem to be mentioned in the threads here or in the MSM. He claims to want to handle a transition to elections. And presumably proposes himself for constitutional monarch. This seems to me to be something the people could coalesce around. But I am speculating without foundation like everyone else.
I agree it all depends on who manages to seize power in the vacuum. Unfortunately the IRGC would appear to be best placed, on paper at least. Alternating hope and dread best sums up my view on this.
I repeat my previous comment.