I often do not agree with Peter Zeihan, to put it mildly, but he might be more or less right about this, given the Atlantic alliance effectively ended in January 2025, at least de facto if not de jure. It pains me to write that as someone who has been a pro-US Atlanticist my entire life.
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How to end American power?May 4th, 2026 |
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Although there is some truth in the video there is another perspective to be had. We seem to be in the period of chaos between the old guard Global Liberal Elite and the forthcoming National Popular Elite. It is not so much the collapse of the ‘admired’ world order but that the political pendulum swing towards the Global Liberal Elite has reached its limits and is now swinging back towards the National Popular Elite.
As such the ‘death’ of NATO, Trump’s transactional focus, and the USA’s place in the world are merely symptoms. Other ‘collapses’ in the future will happen from the change in the direction of the pendulum swing. I’d suggest that the EU is going to go through major changes or even dissolution. The same with the UN. Goodness knows what China will look like in a few years. More locally will the Conservatives and Labour still be significant parties – and maybe the BBC will be defunded?
I never heard of Peter Zeihan before, but he does not seem to be aware of some political realities, especially when it comes to EUrope (and Ukraine).
For starters, both the current NATO Sec.General (Rutte) and his predecessor (Stoltenberg) are on record saying that Trump has done a lot of good for NATO. Normally, i would not trust members of the Establishment such as Stoltenberg and Rutte, but since they vehemently disagree with the “hardcore Establishment”, they must have pretty good reasons to do so.
And in fact, good reasons are in plain sight, even leaving aside the agreement to increase military spending (which might or might not materalize).
We have discovered that Iran is able to strike EUrope at least as far as Milano and Berlin: we would not have found out without Trump.
At the same time, Trump has eliminated the risk of an Iranian nuclear strike for the foreseeable future.
Furthermore, Iran is no longer able to supply drones to Putin, tilting the drone advantage in Ukraine’s favor.
(I note in passing that it was Obama that gave the Iranian regime drone tech superior to what was available to Putin.)
The decrease in oil supply is a problem to which Obama, Merkel, and “Biden” contributed more than Trump, and i trust that i do not have to explain why.
A comment more directly relevant to the video (and to Perry’s introduction to it):
Reducing, or even eliminating, the US military presence in Germany is all for the good: better to get them home now, than to get them home as soon as the Russians start to invade — which i think reasonable to expect under a PotUS such as Carter, Obama, or “Biden”, people prone to sell their friends and try to buy their enemies.
It makes more sense for the US to have US bases only in Central/Eastern Europe, The Nordic countries, Britain, Italy, and Portugal.
For their strategic importance, but also to protect those countries from Germany, France, and Spain.
Not that i expect Germany, France, and Spain to start wars of naked aggression (although that has precedents in the last 5 centuries or so).
But if there is a EUropean army, that could be used, by the Franco-German Establishment, to prevent secession from an increasingly totalitarian EU; and Spain seems likely to align with France & Germany on this issue, at least under the current Establishment.
One more thing: I am old enough to remember a time when it was difficult to argue that US military bases in Western Europe were good for Europe: the consensus “on the left” was that Western Europe was under US military occupation.
But some Europeans older than me seem to have completely forgotten about that time.