And the kicker is…
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Good news, proof Hormuz is open…May 22nd, 2026 |
 21 comments to Good news, proof Hormuz is open…Leave a Reply |
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Samizdata serves up a geopolitical blinder 😀
Within a week we will know if the Trump Administration is serious about ending the IRI “Death to America” regime – or whether there will be a sell out, as with the Paris Peace Accords of the early 1970s with the Marxists in IndoChina, or, the much more recent, deal with the Taliban.
Making agreements with such enemies is pointless – because they always break the agreements. One does not talk to enemies such as the “Hasteners” of the IRI Dictatorship. who believe that bringing nuclear death to the world will “hasten” the return of the 12th or “Hidden” Imam – they need to be removed from power.
Isnt all of Iran a Hastener society? Would killing the top people really change anything?
Making agreements with such enemies is pointless – because they always break the agreements. One does not talk to enemies such as the “Hasteners” of the IRI Dictatorship. who believe that bringing nuclear death to the world will “hasten” the return of the 12th or “Hidden” Imam – they need to be removed from power.
I agree. And no, Nicholas Gray, not all of Iran is a Hastener society. It’s my sense that, given the opportunity, most Iranians would opt for a democratic, largely secular* republic.
Paul Marks is on the money about the Iranian regime though. The Israelis, who have to be more bloody-minded about Iran (for fairly academic reasons), will never allow the development of nukes. You can therefore expect a continuing, concerted Israeli kinetic sound and light show against the regime whenever they get the slightest whiff of any nuclear research activity. Not a good career move now to become an Iranian government nuclear scientist.
In fact, I was rather surprised that the US didn’t at least just say something like, “Right, we’re done with you for now but if we think for a second you’re up to your old nuclear hijinks, we’ll come back and bomb you again”.
* I mean that not in our bland Western washed-out sense of secular but rather in the more pragmatic sense of “yes, there is a cultural religious identity to our society but we’re not a theocracy”.
But that would mean that Trump would be leaving that situation for the next Obama to reverse course, and probably help the mullahs develop the weapons.
No, I think Trump must do this now, on his own, and leave a situation that cannot be easily turned around. Either Iran is re-taken by it’s sane citizens – and, yeah, there are many – or its mullahcracy is turned to bloody rubble.
Nicholas Gray.
No Sir.
Indeed most Iranians hate the Revolutionary Guard (and the rest of the IRI regime).
Although the IRI regime, which has slaughtered vast numbers of Iranians and engaged in terrorism around the world for 47 years, does have some admirers – for example a certain Gentleman in Rome who admires their commitments to “peace” and “social justice”.
Peace as in the peace of the dead – and social justice as in plundering.
But that would mean that Trump would be leaving that situation for the next Obama to reverse course, and probably help the mullahs develop the weapons.
At the moment, I am probably in the same situation as many people: I have no idea what the US thinks it is doing anymore.
Having started out by giving them a terrific thumping, it now seems the US president is consumed with doing a “deal” with the mullahs. If so, no need to leave the situation for the next Obama to reverse course because the current administration would already seem to be doing just that.
Quite so. I have no idea what US objectives vs. Iran actually are. At the start, it seemed their strategy was “lets keep literally killing the Iranian Islamic Government until the Iranian people rise up and replace them with a secular regime.”
An interesting & unique approach never really tried before. But that doesn’t seem to be the case now, so… what exactly?
But hating the current regime is not the same as hating their ideology. Would a replacement government also have Hastener underpinings?
Nicholas Gray – they hate its ideology, that is why they hate the regime.
One can be a Shia Muslim without being a “Hastener” – and many people in Iran are not even Muslim, they pretend to be Muslim because the penalty for leaving Islam is death.
Perry – what should come next is the destruction of all 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard, which is the foundation of the regime.
What I fear will come next is some sort of “deal” – any “deal” would not be kept by the regime which does not regard an agreement with infidels as binding.
Sadly President Trump has “form” on talking to people he should be killing – remember the talks with the Taliban (another group of people where nothing good can come from talking to them) – true actual betrayal occurred under Mr Biden, but I fear the outcome would not have been wildly different under President Trump (we shall never know). Once it is known that one is talking with the enemy, it becomes pointless for soldiers to fight and risk their lives when they know they are being betrayed – that VICTORY (the only justification for war) is NOT the objective.
We shall know in a couple of days whether or not the Iranian people, and the world, have been betrayed – as they were betrayed when the rose up under the Obama Administration.
What Barack Obama did out of malice (he is a person who has always hated liberty – he calls it “capitalism” and regards it as evil), President Trump may (may – I hope he does not) do out of a obsession with deal making.
I repeat – making a deal with a group or regime that wants to exterminate you, is folly.
How do you know this, Paul?
From Iranians Alisa.
Although there are also pro regime Iranians.
From Iranians who are still in Iran?
Alisa – many thousands of Iranians in Iran have died opposing the regime.
Paul, opposing the regime is not the same as ‘hating the ideology’. Many communists in the SU were tortured and killed by that regime, and yet they remained true believers in the ideology to the last moment. Never underestimate the number of contradictions a person can simultaneously hold in his or her head.
In Iran – a very large and diverse society – the various protests over the year were by different populations, for different reasons. I’m sure that for many it was ideological, but not for all and maybe not even for the majority. This seems to apply especially to the latest protests.
…that should have been ‘over the years‘ (plural).
Alisa – I agree, but I still think most Iranians are not “Hasteners” – of course I may be mistaken, perhaps the population is hopelessly evil – but I hope not.
I don’t think most are Hasteners, my semi-educated guess is most don’t care much about any ideology. I also guess that most people in most of the world don’t. But, to paraphrase a paraphrase: I may not care about ideology, but ideology sure cares about me :-\
My last reply to Paul seems to have been smited…
I heard, on the radio, that Iranians are supporting their Government, since it is the Americans who are killing Iranians. And Trump, as is usual, has misread the situation. The Iranians have not overthrown the regime, and don’t seem likely to do so.
Nicholas Gray – it is the regime who has been killing vast numbers of Iranians.
As for “the radio” – if the radio station you are listening to is anything like the BBC, I would advice you to stop listening to it.
HOW are Iranians supposed to overthrow the regime? When they protest, they are murdered – in their tens of thousands, that has been going on for many years. The David Hume position (whether or not he really meant it) that all governments are based on at least the tacit consent of the governed (an argument he advanced to try and undermine the distinction between constitutional government and tyranny) is just WRONG – and many governments have been based on naked force, an armed and organised minority holding the majority in a state of terror.
All 31 commands of the Revolutionary Guard must be destroyed.
No more “cease fires”, no more “talks”.