The Telegraph reports,
Donald Trump has postponed strikes on power plants in Iran for at least five days.
The US president said the two countries had entered talks on a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities.
On Saturday night, Mr Trump set a deadline of 48 hours for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on energy facilities.
The threat prompted Iran to publish a list of retaliatory targets, including a nuclear plant that powers Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Mr Trump said: “I am pleased to report that the USA, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
“Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the department of war to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”
Iran denied that direct talks with the US had started. One headline on Iranian state TV said: “Trump retreated after Iran’s decisive warning.”
Other than seeing Iran free, I don’t even know what I want to be going on.
Seeing as we’ve got Schrödinger’s Ayatollah and The Orange Cock Womble is making this up on the fly I have no fucking idea. This puts me about two notches above those two. It is a clear demonstration that tragedy and farce are two cheeks of the same arse.
Saw a great speech from Rubio in 2015 stating his opposition to Obama unfreezing Iranian funds to the tune of approx 50 billion.
He stated that Iran would use this money to arm itself to make it too painful to attack which was a key goal to developing nuclear capability.
And here we are today. After 25 years of looking around and hoping the problem will go away/someone else will deal with it, the USA has finally stepped up.
It’s definitely an odd situation. Iran technically hasn’t done anything ‘yet.’ So they’re being punished for a non crime.
The problem is that the non crime is of a hugely monstrous nature.
If they developed nukes they would use them. They were developing nukes.
Therefore, here we are….
I read this earlier https://thearabweekly.com/water-security-gulf-highlights-irans-growing-shortages
“While Gulf nations invested heavily in advanced water infrastructure, Iran devoted substantial resources to costly nuclear projects, leaving citizens to contend with mounting thirst and drought.”
“While neighbouring states strengthened water infrastructure to mitigate drought, Iran invested billions in nuclear programmes and ballistic missiles, none of which addressed the daily needs of its population.”
Using good old Godwins law, if you could go back in time to stop Hitler would you do it? Well the economic situation post WW2 means stopping Hitler may not have stopped etcetc you know the drill. But would you try?
And here we are with Iran. If you knew they were developing nukes, should you try to stop it?
I know where I stand.
The Islamic Republic of Iran tyranny does not care about the lights going off for ordinary Iranians – they do not care about ordinary Iranians at all. The underground bases have their own power generators – they do not depend on the national grid.
It is the regime, including the local Revolutionary Guard commanders, that needs to be destroyed – not the power plants.
The Iranian theocracy is denying that any such talks with Trump have taken place.
The likely US goal here is to sow mutual suspicion among the theocracy’s remaining leaders, with everyone suspecting others of clandestine negotiations with the Great Satan.
The claims of talks have also calmed down the oil markets a bit, which would also be a plus from Trump’s viewpoint.
“The claims of talks have also calmed down the oil markets a bit, which would also be a plus from Trump’s viewpoint.”
From everyone else’s as well!
I just don’t see a coherent strategy and I do worry that US/Israeli strikes will do less than zero to help a revolt from within.
Trump is not known for discernable coherent strategies. Or tweets.
But his results tend to be okay. So I’m willing to just watch and wait.
Just because *you* don’t see a coherent strategy doesn’t mean there isn’t one.
Remember your fierce valor, O Achaeans.
We shall have to wait and see.
But this war has already had one very important result – it has showed what side various people are really on.
Those “libertarians” and “conservatives” (as well as open leftists) who claim that the war is to “cover up the Epstein files” or other such – have revealed themselves to be utterly evil.
To side with the Islamic Republic of Iran tyranny, with its desire to “Hasten” the return of the 12th or “Hidden” Imam via the use of nuclear weapons – is as about as evil as anyone can get.
Trump is really all over the place mentally, now (absurdly) claiming that “regime change” has already happened. As I thought from the beginning, it’s going to be up to Israel to keep this operation on track. They are continuing to attack Revolutionary Guards installations and Basij checkpoints which are part of the regime’s apparatus of repression, aiming to degrade that apparatus enough that an uprising can succeed.
Paul Marks: What Trump’s personal motive was for engaging in this war is hard to tell, but objectively it hardly matters. Yes, any support for leaving the theocracy in power in Iran is profoundly evil.
I think it’s important to remember that Trump is not a dictator in the mould of Hitler or Stalin. His decrees are not absolute and he has many advisers.
What he DOES have, which really scares the Middle East, is the will to carry it through. And he will do it in the manner in which he pleases which can be unpredictable. Which is something else they are scared of especially when combined with Israeli efforts. It doesn’t fit with traditional warfare they don’t know what’s coming or when.
This unpredictability could be a liability in a more closely matched contest but is not an issue in this particular instance.
I would prefer Trump to be in charge of this operation due to simple reasoning. Just imagine it was Biden or Obama in charge. So predictable, easily manipulated by public opinion etc.
Trump doesn’t care. He’s the right man at the right time for this. Shame he wasn’t around 15 years ago to stop Iran from building it’s military thanks to Obama. It would be over by now if so.
We’ll eventually see if that is indeed the case. Any result that doesn’t end with the fall of the Islamic Republic & it’s replacement is a fail.
The key is to kill the local commanders of the Revolutionary Guard – if they are not killed they will carry on attacking ships, and carry on attacking other countries.
The average Revolutionary Guard member may have joined in order to have the excuse to rob and abuse ordinary people – but the commanders, including the local commanders, are mostly ideologically committed – they really believe they will go to Paradise if they carry on attacking.
APaul Marks
From Grok r.e. Revolutionary Guard:
“Yes, rank-and-file members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, or Sepah) are significantly ideologically motivated, though not in a purely monolithic or fanatical sense. The organization is deliberately structured to select, train, and incentivize ideological commitment to the Islamic Revolution, Shia Islamist principles (especially velayat-e faqih, or guardianship of the jurist under the Supreme Leader), anti-Western/anti-imperialist worldview, and loyalty to Ayatollah Khamenei. This sets the IRGC apart from Iran’s regular army (Artesh), which is more conventional and less ideologically filtered.
Selection and Recruitment Process
IRGC service is not standard mandatory conscription like the Artesh. Since around 2010, the IRGC has prioritized ideological vetting:
Over 70% of its ~50,000 annual draftees (up to 100% in major cities) come from the Basij paramilitary militia, a volunteer force under IRGC oversight.
Basij members (regular, active, and special tiers) undergo prior ideological screening and basic training from a young age. They are often self-selecting volunteers drawn from conservative, working-class, or rural backgrounds motivated by religious zeal, social status, or benefits (e.g., university quotas, stipends, or service exemptions).
Recruits are described as “self-selected conscripts” who are exhaustively vetted for loyalty, rather than coerced draftees. This system was tightened after events like the 1997 reformist election (when many IRGC/Basij voted for Khatami) and the 2009 protests.
This pipeline ensures that even lower ranks enter with a baseline of ideological alignment, unlike broader Iranian society.
Intensive Ideological-Political Training (IPT)
All members, including rank and file, receive mandatory Ideological-Political Training (IPT):
It begins upon entry at institutions like Imam Hossein University and includes annual in-service courses (intensified since 2002–2009).
Content covers velayat-e faqih, jihad, martyrdom as a divine reward, enemies of Islam (the West, Zionism, internal “conspirators” or protesters labeled baaghi or moharebeh), and the duty to export the Revolution transnationally (rejecting narrow nationalism).
Training frames IRGC members as mujahideen (holy warriors) executing divine will, with obedience to Khamenei equated to obedience to God. Modules justify violence against regime opponents and glorify self-sacrifice.
Promotion depends more on proven ideological commitment (tahhod) than technical expertise. Family members are also scrutinized for revolutionary zeal.
Khamenei has explicitly stated that without strong IPT, the IRGC cannot function as the “powerful arm of the Islamic Revolution.” This indoctrination radicalizes and sustains commitment, especially among younger generations post-Syria/Iraq deployments.
Motivations: Ideology + Incentives
Primary driver is ideological: Many view service as a religious and revolutionary duty—defending the regime is framed as defending Islam itself, with promises of martyrdom, divine favor, and preparing for the Mahdi’s return. Basij regulars (the main feeder) are often unpaid volunteers motivated by “ideological zeal.” Deployments (e.g., to Syria) are presented as shrine defense, not just orders.
Pragmatic factors coexist: Economic benefits, social advancement, jobs, and patronage play a role—especially for lower-class recruits seeking status or stability. The IRGC controls vast economic assets, providing indirect perks. Some historical rank-and-file members reflected broader society (e.g., supporting reformists like Mousavi in the 1980s–2009 era).
However, ideology is not secondary: The system combines “carrot and stick” (rewards + purging of the disloyal) to align personal interests with regime goals. Analyses note that IRGC loyalty is “ideological, institutional, and generational,” not merely transactional.
Not Uniform or Absolute
The IRGC is not a cult of identical zealots. Rank and file are more diverse than top leadership (which is uniformly hardline “principlist”). Some join partly for career reasons, and there have been cases of hesitation during protests. But the vetting, training, and culture make ideological motivation the dominant feature—far stronger than in a typical professional or conscript military. Post-2009 and amid recent pressures, indoctrination has only deepened to counter societal secularization.
In short, yes—the rank and file are ideologically motivated by design. The IRGC functions as the regime’s “ideological brain” and enforcer precisely because it selects and molds its members that way. Sources like expert analyses from Saeid Golkar, the Tony Blair Institute, and others consistently highlight this over purely economic or opportunistic explanations.”
You might be confident r.e. the rank and file members but if your life depended on that gamble I don’t think you’d make the bet!
Any result that doesn’t end with the fall of the Islamic Republic & it’s replacement is a fail.
Well, harumph to that!
PdH: “Any result that doesn’t end with the fall of the Islamic Republic & it’s replacement is a fail.”
In your eyes. Probably in most eyes.
Is it really a fail, though, if Trump takes control of the EU instead with this move?
(Jeff Childers has some interesting takes.)
Er… Wut?
JC always has interesting takes on Coffee and Covid.
Tim – kill the ideologically committed members of the Revolutionary Guard, they want to die (because then they believe they will go to Paradise) so give-them-their-wish.
bobby b – most voters are not interested in complicated “victories” – they want straight forward results, hence defeat after defeat in various elections in the United States over the last six months.
If things carry on like this then the Dems will win the Midterms – and Hakeem Jeffries will be Speaker of the House of Representatives.
If the regime in Iran does not fall – then most people will see that as DEFEAT for the United States.
I hope President Trump understands that – for if America falls (if people such as Mr Jeffries take power) then the rest of the West will also fall.
If America falls – no where else in the West can stand, that is the brutal truth.