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Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

Godspeed

“When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be… probably… your only chance for generations.

For many years you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you what you want. So, lets see how you respond.

America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action: do not let it pass.”

POTUS Donald Trump.

Back on January 31st, I asked “So… is help on the way for the Iranian protestors or not?” – We now have our answer. I have my differences with Trump on trade, Ukraine, and threats against Greenland, but on this issue… Godspeed.

53 comments to Godspeed

  • Patrick Crozier

    Bombing → Regime Change → Democracy → A good thing for them → A good thing for us.

    None of those steps necessarily follow. Let’s start with the first. Sure, the US & Israel can smash up the régime’s command & control and missile launchers aka The Big Stuff. But the man with the AK and the willingness to use it is a different proposition.

  • But the man with the AK and the willingness to use it is a different proposition.

    Indeed. But anyone can learn how to use an AK, including the protestors, and sending them weapons & ammunition for a street fight is a vastly simpler task than assembling a formidable carrier strike group. Trump is notably not offering to send the US army/USMC into Iran, he is urging Iranians to overthrow their (now almost entire dead) government, which is 100% the correct approach.

  • NickM

    Godspeed indeed. And I don’t even believe in God. If (and this is a big “if”) Iran becomes almost anything other than it has been for nearly fifty years then that is a big win for all of The Huge Manatee…

    Whatever! They bagged an Ayatollah! Excellent. But what really matters (Iran ain’t short of Qom-soaked goat-fuckers) is what has happened to the Republican Guard. They are the backbone of the theocracy. They need to be taken out. If that happens… If…

  • Patrick Crozier

    On the subject of arming the protesters.

    We managed to do it, i.e. sending guns & ammo, in WW2 including getting it into mostly the right hands.

  • Marius

    The conflict will lead to deaths and the next Iranian government might not be ideal but Islamism Is Always Worse.

  • Godspeed indeed. And I don’t even believe in God.

    Likewise 😉

  • The conflict will lead to deaths and the next Iranian government might not be ideal but Islamism Is Always Worse.

    That’s pretty much the way I see it.

  • Jacob

    As they say in America – Khameney (and his regime) “needed killing”, or bombing. We don’t know if there will be regime change, and if the next regime will be better, but you need to give it a try. The status quo of the last 50+ years was intolerable.

    By the way: concerning the much maligned (and poorly carried out) intervention in Iraq in 2003: Seems to me that the regime in Iraq, now, though not ideal, is a great improvement over the mad Saddam Hussein regime. At least it is not an international trouble maker. So, that intervention was not a total loss.

  • Jacob

    Concerning Iraq, for example, they say the central government (current) doesn’t have full control, and the country is divided into a Shia zone, a Suni zone and a Kurdish zone (or two). Well, ok. So what? Why do people suppose that a strong central government is a good thing? The borders of Iraq were artificial, drawn by the colonial powers. The division better reflects the population.

    Maybe Iran will also be divided? among it’s ethnic groups?

  • Marius

    Re: Iraq 2, I think a Venezuela-style intervention would have likely got the nation to where it is today a lot quicker and saved half a million lives. Take out Saddam, his psychopathic offspring and the most dangerous military leaders, then tell the next most serious Ba’athist figure: “You’re it. By all means feather your nest, if you have to shoot a few religious nutjobs, so be it, but keep your hands clean overseas and your foot off the neck of the people or we just repeat the process.”

    And that is not entirely hindsight. It was suggested at the time.

  • anon

    I was beginning to wonder whether the US forces were even further from “locked and loaded” than I had thought, but if reports are true, then it seems I was closer to the mark with the comment I made on that January 31st post about how they were waiting for trigger conditions to be fulfilled before they moved. One of which conditions seems to have been the uncommon instance of a meeting with almost all the senior regime leadership in attendance, ripe for decapitation.

    I find myself in agreement with the comments so far. While Patrick is wise to remind us that this isn’t the end of the path, and outcomes are far from certain, like others, I feel that there’s little which could be worse for Iran than the continuation of the Islamic Republic.

    This has been such a long, long time coming. Godspeed.

  • SteveD

    “sending them weapons & ammunition for a street fight is a vastly simpler task than assembling a formidable carrier strike group.”

    So why don’t they, then?

  • IrishOtter49

    So why don’t they, then?

    High probability that they already have or are in the process of doing so.

  • willful knowledge

    Yeah, wtf, europe looks cooked so let’s bomb the shit out of europe. Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?

  • Wessexboy

    ‘Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or (she?) wants to?
    Oh no! Better get on to someone in authority then. Now who should you turn to?

  • Stonyground

    When Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister and Queen Elizabeth was still our Monarch, didn’t we technically have a Matriarchy?

  • GregWA

    Jacob, at 1:21pm, “The status quo of the last 50+ years was intolerable.” For the record, the status quo has been tolerated for 47 years, until now.

    Don’t get me wrong, your comments and others here are great, as usual (mostly!)

    Maybe it’s just hyperbole to say something is “intolerable” when in fact we tolerate it. If what we mean is “good and courageous people should not tolerate this”, then we should compare our actions against that standard. I think Trump’s actions will stand up ok against that standard–with the huge caveat that these are still very, very early days in this war.

    But it does make you wonder how many other world situations “The Donald” thinks are intolerable? He’s claiming success in stopping 8 or 9 wars (I’ve lost track and I’m not interested in checking his scoring method)…is that all there are? ChatGPT tells me this:
    –At least ~11 wars by conventional definitions (high intensity).
    –Roughly ~60+ armed conflicts when including civil and state-based fights.
    –Well over 100 violent conflicts if counting insurgencies and localized wars.

    Maybe Trump is only just getting started? He really wants that Peace Prize (another one, that is! 🙂 )

  • So why don’t they, then?

    They might well be doing exactly that for all I know.

  • anon

    Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?

    *sigh*

    No, please, do tell me how it’s Trump’s actions, unlike those of any former president, which establish a dangerous precedent. Feel free to explain how they’re totally and completely different from:

    Iran (’80). Grenada. Libya (’86). Iran (’87). Panama. Iraq (’91). Somalia. Serbia. Afghanistan. Iraq (’03). Syria. Libya (’11).

    To me, some of those look just as unilateral, and some just as Congressionally unauthorised. But obviously those can’t have happened because Trump hadn’t set a precedent and given others carte blanche, had he?

    If you want to find buffoons, “willful knowledge”, just go look in the mirror.

  • Myno

    Pistol. Bubble wrap. C17 Globemaster. Push…

  • bobby b

    Curious if Starmer (UK) actually refused permission for the USA to use any British bases during this action, while the less-Muslim countries in the ME such as Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are supporting us.

  • Mr Ed

    A bit of musical historical perspective: From Not the Nine O’Clock News (made by and shown on the BBC back in the day). The Ayatollah Song.

    The Stranglers: Shah Shah A Go Go!

  • Jacob

    For the record, the status quo has been tolerated for 47 years, until now.

    And another 5 or more under ayatollah Khomeini, before Khamenei.

    I don’t think there is another case in the world where a state is declaring openly that it’s aim is to destroy another state, and is doing it’s best toward that aim. The case of Iran and Israel. Trying to arm itself with Atom. Developing long range ballistic missiles. Financing, training and managing proxies (in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen), starting proxie wars (Hamas, Hezbollah). Terrorism… Religious oppression…
    That this was tolerated for 58 years is intolerable…

  • Paul Marks.

    Good.

  • Philip Scott Thomas

    Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting [T]rump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?

    You say that like it’s a bad thing. 😉

  • bobby b

    “Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?”

    They already had that carte blanche. All that was lacking was nerve.

    Isn’t this fun to watch?

  • Marius

    Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?

    Yeah, it was much better in the days when the US president gave Iran $1.7 billion in cash to spend on terrorism.

  • NickM

    “Several” US planes down over Kuwait. Can someone explain? I have seen video of an F-15 in a flat spin but “several” in what would seem accidents?

  • llamas

    “Don’t you buffoons realize that accepting trump’s unilateral actions in Venezuela and Iran give him or any future president carte blanche to do whatever the fuck he or she wants whenever he or wants to?”

    But they already had that – and used it! Bombings, drone strikes, ‘wet jobs’ of all kinds, ‘deniable’ operations all over the place. It’s just that now the power is being used – apparently for good – by someone the left (and apparently, you) thoroghly dislike. It’s the perfect case of ‘but it’s different when we do it’.

    It’s fun watching the left writhing in apoplexy watching President Trump doing, what they claim they always wanted to do all along, but somehow always managed to fail to do. Decades of exquisitely-nuanced but ineffective diplomacy checkmated by a single night’s kinetic activity. And, of course, watchong them predictably lining up to defend Iranian tyrrany, alongside the likes of Putin and Kim. I’m not sure how much more of his success they will be able to stand. I think it’s telling that the only card-carrying Democrat who has a realistic view about this is the stroke survivor – their brains are so hardwired to be wrong that it takes a TIE to straighten them.out.

    llater,

    llamas

  • llamas

    Oh, dear – spelling so appalling, Miss Eade would have her boxwood Helix out and swinging.

    llater,

    llamas

  • Clovis Sangrail

    I am embarrassed to be British today (and yesterday). I am also slightly incoherent with rage.

    All the caveats apply but I really believe that President Trump gets it.

    And this is righteous, even by international law, despite what Lord Harmer and TTK have been saying. Iran has been attacking the west directly and by proxy for 47 years (since 1979, not 1974 @Jacob).
    I might also ask why we are not actively involved, since Iran sent three drones to attack RAF Akrotiri, never mind the assassinations and attempted assassinations on UK territory.

  • Marius

    @Clovis Speaking in October last year, Sir Ken McCallum said MI5 had tracked more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots in the last 12 months. These were often linked to the IRGC. Which Starmer refuses to ban. Britain’s refusal to defend itself is indeed shameful.

    The only thing that persuades me he is not in the pay of China is that, if he was, they’d have reined him in and said: “Do at least try to look like you have Britain’s interests at heart.”

  • Clovis Sangrail

    @Marius

    if he was, they’d have reined him in and said “Do at least try to look like you have Britain’s interests at heart.”

    :):)

  • Paul Marks.

    The Morning Star, the newspaper of the British Communist Party (on sale at your local caring-sharing-co-op in every town), has come out, passionately, in support of the Tyranny in Iran.

    The Red-Green Alliance is indeed a thing – very much so.

    Libertarians and Conservatives who oppose this campaign against a fanatical enemy which has been attacking Americans, and others, for 47 years – should note what company they are keeping. If you are on the same side as the Communists and the Islamists (the Red-Green Alliance) – you are on the wrong side.

  • Paul Marks.

    In the House of Commons right now various Labour Members of Parliament are condemning the “illegal war” of the United States.

    But not just Labour Members of Parliament – so is “Sir Ed” Davey Leader of the Liberal Democrat Party.

    Anyone who thinks the Liberal Democrats are moderates – is mistaken, profoundly mistaken.

    The modern “Lib Dems” are the opposite of 19th century Liberals such as Gladstone – they have a deep hatred of the West and side with its enemies, overseas – and at home.

  • JJM

    Yet more Kremlin hilarity!

    Putin described the dispatch of Ayatollah Khamenei as “a cynical murder that violates all norms of human morality and international law“.

    You couldn’t make this up!

  • Clovis Sangrail

    TTK is being reported as saying that he

    doesn’t believe in regime change from the skies.

    My God, the man is such a self-righteous, little tit!
    How would he effect regime change, one wonders?

    Would he describe the defeat of Germany in WW2 as regime change from the skies (and the ground and sea)?

    Is it not his duty to seek to aid in inflicting defeat on a proven enemy?

  • GregWA

    A nomination for SQoTD:

    bobby b, “Curious if Starmer (UK) actually refused permission for the USA to use any British bases during this action, while the less-Muslim countries in the ME such as Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are supporting us.”

    Perhaps shortened to “UK…refused…while the less-Muslim countries in the ME such as Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are supporting us.”

  • bobby b

    Thanks, GregWA!

    – – – –

    I spent a chunk of my professional life making the world a better place for international reinsurers, and so this tweet struck home for me vis-a-vis “what’s about to happen.”:

    John Ʌ Konrad V
    @johnkonrad

    This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why…

    Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance.

    Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.

    This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.

    Control insurance, control trade.
    And London doesn’t just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd’s and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.

    You can’t participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.

    Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.

    Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can’t even price it.

    The question everyone should be asking: why?

    Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?

    To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.

    The answer: better intelligence.

    It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the
    @IMOHQ
    , the world’s maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd’s itself.

    I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd’s.

    Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.

    Here’s the problem: the majority of MI6’s intel doesn’t come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

    And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion’s share of intel.

    So if Lloyd’s pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6’s best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?

    All indications are that
    @Keir_Starmer
    was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.

    And we know there has been serious anger in Washington over the UK’s decision to sell Diego Garcia, home to America’s most strategically important base in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius.

    It is not a huge leap to conclude that the submarine cables linking Langley to London have gone dark, or at minimum have been significantly throttled.

    What this means for UK national security is a question for the Brits. But what it means for EVERY company globally that’s insured through the London market has massive implications for the entire financial system.

    Because most large insurers worldwide don’t do independent intelligence work. They index off Lloyd’s rates.

    If you’re insuring a skyscraper in Tokyo, a semiconductor fab in Taiwan, or a port in Argentina you get a Lloyd’s quote, then shop that price around.

    Other insurers see Lloyd’s number and assume the diligence was done. They price accordingly.

    This means if London is suddenly flying blind it’s not just Lloyd’s policyholders at risk. It’s the entire global reinsurance chain.

    The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn’t the crisis. It’s the canary.

    If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.

    Watch Lloyd’s. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That’s where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.

    This would be a major chunk of change to walk away from the UK if this is all true.

  • NickM

    At school I knew this guy, M, (he wasn’t exactly a friend – for reasons that will become apparent). His Dad was Iranian. My schoolmate M, was deranged and I can’t help but think at least part of that is because of what happened to his father. His father was a PhD student at Newcastle University (Chemistry, I think) with a wife and young son, M, After the revolution happened. M’s Dad wanted to go back to see his friends and family and the new regime said, “OK fine! You are going to be perfectly safe, no worries!”. So, he went and never came back. M and I had an awkward time as schoolmates and he is the resaon I have a false tooth. He nutted me. He also tried to rape me but bygones… He was, I think, to get technical, absolutely fucked-up. The time he told me about his Dad and how he never knew what happened but suspected very bad things he was in tears and I hugged him. I hope he has found peace because, despite everything, I could never regard him as evil. But what happened to him probably was evil, I mean he chased me round a field with his fully tumescent cock out shouting he was going to bugger me. He was also a virolent, vocal, homophobe. That is fucked-up,

  • Paul Marks.

    NickM – grim indeed Sir.

  • JJM

    Five Eyes only operates if Five Eyes are involved.

    Clearly this is a US/Israel Eyes Only operation.

  • NickM

    JJM,
    “For Five Eyes Only”! Someone had to say it. Now I have the theme tune stuck in my head!

  • JJM

    Another funny Russian line!

    At the UN, the Russian ambassador states: “Schools must not be attacked even during an armed conflict“.

    This from a country that has damaged/destroyed well over 1,600 schools in Ukraine.

  • Paul Marks.

    JJM – hardly any of the Western media are pointing out that the school was destroyed by an Iranian missile misfire, so they are not really better than the lie-machine that is the Putin regime.

    After some days of flip-flopping Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Mark Carney (the creature the International Community installed in Canada) have come out AGAINST the military operation.

    For some time now we have been told that it does not matter that nations such as the United Kingdom and the Canada (and, even more Spain,) do not share basic American principles, such as Freedom of Speech, they were still, supposedly, “allies”.

    It is now horribly clear that they are NOT allies – which means that bases such as Diego Garcia should no longer be “joint bases”, they need to be American bases.

    After all Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Attorney General Lord Hermer made it clear, very clear, that they do not wish these places to be part of Britain – that they eager to give them away. So they can have no principled objection to the United States taking ownership of them – rather than the regime in Mauritius.

    As for the regime in Ottawa which has openly allied with the People’s Republic of China Dictatorship – the people of Alberta (and other places?) must decide for themselves if they wish to continue to be under this regime.

    This does NOT automatically mean that Alberta (and so on) would become part of the United States – the people there may decide that becoming an independent country (rejecting the “International Community” with its “Net Zero” “Hate Speech” edicts, “Gun Control”, “15 minute cities”, mass Third World migration, and so on) is the better option.

  • JJM

    PM Carney’s government in Ottawa is not a “regime” anymore than The Donald’s administration in Washington is, no matter what ideologues at each end of the spectrum might wish to think.

    For the record, my own view is that Mr Carney should have just shut up while he was ahead on the pretext that we’re busy here in Canada sorting ourselves out right now. Iran has no friends and its closest “associates” – Russia and China – ain’t going to help (Russia because it’s a lame duck and China because it’s not stupid). So our PM only had to say nothing at all. Well, he might have said Canada was ready to provide humanitarian aid when and as required.

    And Albertan separatists – like their Québécois counterparts – are petulant whiners.

  • Jacob

    Concerning Spain’s Pedro Sanchez “no to war”. Lefties and commies only love wars they start and call “war of liberation”. The funny thing is that this IS a war of liberation (of Iranian people).
    Sanchez (and the commies) only love “wars of liberation” which are actually wars of oppression.

  • Jacob

    MSM pundits warn us that this war may destabilize Iran, and cause inner conflict between Iran’s ethnic minorities – Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis. And chaos will ensue. Well, bring it on! Let’s liberate Iran’s oppressed minorities. Let’s help regular Irani (Farsi) get rid of Islamist oppression. Whatever.

    My point is that I’m all in favor of weakening the central regime, to the point that they are all immersed in inner conflicts and are unable to spread trouble outside.
    The disintegration of the Iranian state would be a good thing.
    Just like the disintegration of Libya or Iraq.

  • NickM

    Jacob,
    Speaking as very long term Civ player chaos amongst one’s enemies is good in and of itself.

  • Paul Marks.

    JJM

    I disagree.

    Alberta is systematically robbed by Ottawa – it is not “whining” to tell the truth that Alberta should take back independence (it could still have King Charles the Third as its Head of State if, for some reason, it wishes to do so).

    As for the Carney regime – it punishes people for the peaceful expression of their opinions (if deemed “racist” or “Transphobic”, or whatever, by the courts, and administrative bodies, of the regime) and Mr Carney is openly allied with the People’s Republic of China Dictatorship – he admitted this (indeed boasted about it) in his recent speech in Europe.

    It is a regime – it is not an ally.

    Mr Trudeau said that Canada had no core national culture (translation – he meant he wanted to destroy Canada, a process of destruction that started before he was born – in 1965 when the Red Ensign was replaced by the Maple Leaf – and is continued by the endless lies about Canadian culture and history, for example the lies about the Residential Schools) and Mr Carney is the same.

    This regime needs to go – not just the elected government, the courts, the administrative bodies, all of it.

    Alberta becoming independent would be a good step in the correct direction.

  • Paul Marks.

    In truth, tragically, traditional Canada is already dead – destroyed by the “liberal” establishment over a very long period.

    As for “elbows up ah” – men do not talk like that.

    The Empire Loyalists of 1812 defended the land with firearms – not with “elbows up ah”.

    But the regime, whose only loyalty is the “International Community”, is now even pushing “gun control” – and there is, tragically, no longer a British Empire to be loyal to. Nor is there a Britain – in the sense that the old Association for the Protection of Liberty and Property (of the wars with the French Revolution), or the Liberty and Property Defense League, or the Constitutional Club Network, or, indeed, the old National Rifle Association (the British one was larger than the American one – at the time) would have recognised.

    And before anyone points it out, I am grimly aware that cultural and demographic factors may also destroy the United States over time – indeed this process of destruction (of death) may be well underway – and have been under way for many years.

    Yesterday was the 190 anniversary of the last stand at the Alamo – in some ways this was grimly ironic, given the cultural decay (and, yes, the demographic changes – pushed by intellectually corrupt legislation and intellectually corrupt courts) over recent decades.

  • Paul Marks.

    The 1965 Immigration Act is an example of corrupt legislation – the people pushing it, such as Senator Edward Kennedy, kept saying the objective was not demographic change, translation – the objective was (and is) demographic change (demographic transformation – replacing one people with another people).

    An example of an intellectual corrupt courts were the courts in Texas in the early 1980s which demanded that the taxpayers pay for the education of the children of illegal immigrants.

    And the courts in California which struck down the vote of the people to limit the amount of government benefits and government services given to illegal immigrants.

    The United States is not dying a natural death – the United States is being murdered, murdered by a “liberal” establishment – a “liberal” establishment which controls nearly all institutions.

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