Some thoughts about what might happen if the brutes ruling Iran are toppled:
Funding for various Islamist terror networks will decline and that is good for Israel, Lebanon and wider world.
Israel might try and carve out relations with Iran, leading over time to trade and capital flows, development, etc. There are lots of young, smart Iranian people who want something better. Some expat Iranians might return and bring money and investment.
This will hit the Islamists who are allying with the Western hard Left. This is going to badly undermine morale and the sense that their ideology is winning. That is important.
Iran’s relations with Moscow will change, and become more difficult. This might further tilt the scales against Putin, although that is not something I predict with much confidence.
On balance, this is also a negative for China, assuming that Iran moves in a slightly more liberal direction (I use that word with due care and attention).
The Gulf states might benefit in some ways but not in others. Saudi Arabia, UAE etc have benefited in recent years from expanded links with the West, in part because they were seen as the relatively sane folk in the room (particularly, the UAE). If Iran were to turn more friendly, more pro-capitalist, etc, it creates more competition for the Gulf states. Competition is generally a good thing.
Can we call it “Persia” again?
This is entirely dependent upon (assuming the mullahs do fall…) what steps in the fill the vacuum.
The arab spring does not give a warming precedent – the Islamists will not want to let this go
The Pedant-General – Sunni Islam is weak in Iran, and Shia Islam is associated with the regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) that has so savagely misgoverned Iran for almost 47 years.
So Johnathan Pearce is correct.
The fall of the regime would be bad news for Islam (remember the Shia IRI regime has happily funded Sunni terrorist groups around the world – not just Shia ones), bad news for Mr Putin (as the Islamic Republic of Iran is a key friend of his) and a bad news for the People’s Republic of China – the main enemy of the West.
Let us hope that the IRI regime falls – and the people of Ancient Persia (Iran) can be free.
The problem may be that someone could be in a position to climb to power and be just as bad, or even worse, than the ousted regime. The overthrow of the Shah was classed as a popular uprising, and look what happened. Many overthrown regimes in that part of the world resulted in something worse.
One can only hope that there is someone who can really unite this fabulous country, and bring true democracy.
They are chanting in the street to bring back Reza Pahlavi. This does not seem to be mentioned in the threads here or in the MSM. He claims to want to handle a transition to elections. And presumably proposes himself for constitutional monarch. This seems to me to be something the people could coalesce around. But I am speculating without foundation like everyone else.
I agree it all depends on who manages to seize power in the vacuum. Unfortunately the IRGC would appear to be best placed, on paper at least. Alternating hope and dread best sums up my view on this.
I repeat my previous comment.
Tobias Ellwood – the ex “Conservative” Member of Parliament who was also a Colonel in the British Army Disinformation (propaganda and lies) 77th Brigade (infamous during Covid for its spreading of lies and its attacks on anyone who told the truth) – is also doing the “if the religious leader of Iran falls – the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will take over” tap dance.
The Iranian Revolution Guard (IRGC) depends (“Occasional Delurker”, who is most likely the same person who pretends that fiat money is allowed under the Constitution of the United States, please note) for its legitimacy on the Islamic regime – without that ideological factor, it has, even by its own doctrines, no-right-to-rule.
The Soviet armed forces, and internal security forces, had vast amounts of weapons – that did not prevent the fall of Marxism in Eastern Europe when they lost ideological belief.
Iran does not have anything like our centuries of democratic experimentation. Their own history would promote the strong man idea. So a new dictator, or the return of a royal claimant, would seem more likely than instantaneous representative democracy. Still, let us hope for a change.
Paul
Apologies for delay in replying – im still not sure. The fall of the mullahs _might_ be a setback for Islam.
For the avoidance of doubt I desperately hope that it is. The violence and horror wrought on Persia by this twisted and hateful ideology is only made worse by the irritating fools in the west who refuse to see it for the evil that it is.
But that still doesn’t mean that what follows will not either actually be some other group of Islamist nutters or whatever better form of governance is not quickly overrun by the same.
The “good guys” will need to dispatch – probably slaughter – a VERY large number of IRGC and other deeply committed, very violent and very nasty people. That will change the nature of the people who have to do that horrible work.
And if it’s not done, well, see options what follows above.
We don’t have a good track record of nation building no matter how well meaning the revolution
“We” are not nation building in Iran. “We” are not on the streets trying to overthrow the mullahs. Even if “we” (to be fair the IDF as they are the ones with the intel, not anyone else) bomb some IRGC budlings, it will still only happen if Iranians take the losses & make it happen on the ground.
Perry,
That’s all absolutely true and fair, but I’m not sure that I detracts from my main point.
Especially if there is no-one there to help, then the poor sods on the ground trying to make this happen are going to have to conjure up a government in the still smoking ruins that can withstand the onslaught of the nutters all on their own.
That short term government will also probably have to be pretty nasty to keep the forces of Islam at bay and, if it is that nasty, you’ll end up with it forfeiting support in the west because [liberal hand-wringing] – that’s why I’m pessimistic about this being a rollback for Islam, even if the regime does fall (which is looking more likely today)
The discussion here addresses this very point (the link points to the relevant timestamp).
Alisa – it may be so, and I do not have enough knowledge to contest it.
But it is hard to see how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps can convincingly drop Islamism and adopt Persian Nationalism.
Still Mr Putin dropped Marxism and reinvented himself as a Russian nationalist – how unconvincing he may be.
“I am now a Persian nationalist”.
No you are not.
“My big gun says I am – and you are going to agree with me, right now”.
Certainly better a Persian Nationalist government (even a fake one) than an Islamist regime.
Maybe ‘less bad’ rather than ‘better’. But yeah.
I forgot to add before that on this specific topic, it is worth listening for at least 15 minutes from where I pointed.