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The breakthrough continues

These maps become out of date by the time I post them (Izyum has actually fallen it seems).

The general directly presiding over this astonishing display of operational art is General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who along with his boss Valerii Zaluzhnyi is going to be much studied in the future.

See larger version of this excellent map by Martinn

7 comments to The breakthrough continues

  • He expected to look like Hitler racing through Austria. Today, he looks more like Stalin invading Finland. He fears looking like Mussolini invading Greece. Putin will endure much before he lets that happen; so may the Ukraine.

    That quote is from my March 5th post. Today, for the first time in this war, we approach what I very much hope for the Ukraine’s sake is the final danger zone – but for them to win, it always had to be faced.

    Will Putin accept (or will those around him oblige him to accept) defeat, or will he go ballistic (the common English colloquialism has a regrettable aptness in the circumstances)?

    Hesitating to face down threats makes the risk greater: the behaviour you reward you make more likely. Ukrainian courage in carrying on pushing the Russians to the far size of every border regardless of any bluster from the Kremlin is the best way to deter bluster from becoming reality.

    But this possibly-now-looming stage of the war was always waiting for the Ukrainians on pretty-well every path to victory. They have shown courage, and I feel confident both in and for them.

  • Paul Marks

    Niall – Mr Putin will not be allowed to use nuclear weapons. That would be too much even for his own henchmen.

    However, he might cut off gas and other supplies to the Ukraine.

    The difference between the two sides, at least so far, is in the infantry. The Ukrainians are operating as trained infantry (individuals and groups) with the motivation of defending their country. The Russian infantry have no idea why they are in Ukraine and have not received proper training (proper training stresses individual thought and action) – only beatings and other abuse.

    I am reminded of the first great siege of Vienna – not that of 1683, the one of 1519.

    The Turks succeeded in planting mines under the wall and blowing it up – all seemed over, the Ottoman army would rush into the city and the people who died quickly would be the lucky ones.

    But then, out of the smoke and dust, defenders emerged – mercenaries carrying Great Swords and Pole Arms – the Ottoman slave masters whipped their slave soldiers to attack (quite literally whipped – they carried whips), but the defenders cut them first attackers in half – again literally.

    There was a pause – as the ordinary Ottoman infantry observed their comrades being cut in half, then they (the ordinary slave soldiers) turned on the slave drivers behind them – in order to get away from the big men with the Great Swords and Pole Arms.

    The siege ended in farce – with the Ottoman Army retreating in confusion (pausing only to murder the civilians it had captured in the campaign – who they had intended to sell in the slave markets of Constantinople).

    By the way – this was under Suleiman the Magnificent – who the academics (indeed the media as well as the education system) so love.

  • Paul Marks

    Silly me – I meant the Siege of Vienna of 1529, not 1519.

  • The Wobbly Guy

    Somebody mentioned Russian retreats have, historically, yielded effective counterattacks.

    I’m sure a lot of folks on all sides are waiting to see if the Russians are able to respond… or have they already run out of reserves of men, ammunition, and courage?

    I’m sure the Ukrainians hope for the best, while they also prepare for the worst.

    I note that in the video, the Russian formations did not seem to be trapped and eliminated by advancing Ukrainian forces, but also certainly they would be suffering huge losses by attrition and abandonment of equipment in their haste to retreat.

  • Chester Draws

    Somebody mentioned Russian retreats have, historically, yielded effective counterattacks.

    Only after retreating literally hundreds of kilometres, and so stretching the attackers supply lines tremendously.

    This war is over if the Russians retreat that distance, and Ukraine supply lines improve as they move forward.

  • Bulldog Drummond

    Russians have abandoned a huge amount of gear and took a hammering during their retreat

  • We reprise Gilbert Doctorow as noted in John Wauck, “Meaning in History”:

    Numerous theses attest that Ukraine coordinates its current offensive with U.S. military/industrial elements
    despite Russia actually “pullng punches” from last February.

    Citing NATO’s weekend EU Command conference at Ramstein AFB near Köln, where “U.S. commanders upped the ante promoting World War III” (!?), Doctorow asserts that [via PM Boris Johnson, who visited Kiev on April 9th) Pentagon and State officials sabotaged good-faith “peace through neutrality” negotiations by denying ex parte security guarantees (cf: Edward Luttwak, June).

    As revealed by Sen. Leader Mitch McConnell plus “shadow Secretary of State” (vs. K Street’s Blinken paymaster) Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del), in Congress WW III is a bipartisan (club, uniparty) proposition. (Needless to say, the American people have no voice.) Addressing Russian TV commentator Vladimir Solovyov, Doctorow notes that “Ramstein openly invited provocations.”

    Likely channeling the Kremlin, Solovyov saw “escalation” due to Ukraine’s “more threatening military
    technology,” submitting that Zelenski’s “proxy war has become a real war” affecting Russia’s national security.

    Putin’s instigation is beside the point… the time has come to assert true Russian power, leveraging her foreign assets. In practice, this threatens a “tactical nuclear exchange” coordinating Hsi’s assault upon Taiwan.