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Were you up for Twigg? Some brief news about the UK General Election.
With some 40 or so constituencies still to declare, ZaNu-Labour have (as expected) won a third term in office, though with a much reduced majority. Tony Blair looks rather chastened. The Conservatives have done rather better than I (or anybody else) had expected. Michael Howard looks rather pleased. The truly hideous Leninist-Democrats have gained a few seats but, fortunately, nowhere near as many as they were expecting. They are still in third place by some distance.
Oh and George Galloway is back in Parliament.
I will offer up some more thoughts later and as soon as I have some time to spare.
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Galloway’s election is the turd in the punchbowl. The man flirted with anti-semitism in order to oust the sitting Labour MP. ugh.
First impressions: glad that the huge nuLab majority is down, but the Tories only gleaned about 33 pct of the overall vote, which is far from where they need to be to win back power. Goodish night for the LibDems.
In general terms, public opinion has shifted, marginally, to the left, in my perception.
Turned out to be a slightly more interesting poll than it appeared a week ago.
In general terms, public opinion has shifted, marginally, to the left, in my perception.
I disagree, Johnathan. But I shall expand more fully on this later.
Good old George,eh? The best advert for the war in Iraq there’s ever been. I wonder how long it’ll be before he puts in his LibDem membership application?
Counting is still going on at Today Programme Central, but it is understood to be very close between John Humphrys (Respect) and James Naughtie (Old Labour).
My view of the Lib-Dims is generally quite negative, but what should we make of the claims set forth in this piece?
http://www.reason.com/hod/jvlb050505.shtml
Quote: ‘The Liberal Democrats [have a] consistently liberal platform rooted in the party’s Classical Liberal tradition…[the] party [] positions itself as the lone defenders of English civil liberty and peace, while unabashedly embracing a market economy’.
Chris,
What I make of it, is that the author is right. The Lib Dems are clearly the most libertarian of the 3 main parties in the UK. That is why I voted for them yesterday.
Chris:
If that is what the piece says, then it is tosh.
Overall the Illiberal Dems are probably the most statist of the 3 main parties. It is true that they are probably the soundest when it comes to a narrow range of civil liberties, but on all matters to do with economics and the welfare state, they are appalling.
How AC can say that they are “clearly the most libertarian of the 3 main parties in the UK” is beyond me.
From my centre-left perspective, I’d say this is the perfect result. The Labour Party stays in power with a much-reduced yet still very comfortable majority. Blair is significantly weakened, making it impossible for him to renege on his promise to stand down, which will probably happen sooner rather than later. Also making it impossible for him to carry through his most contentious policies like ID cards. Brown becomes leader by 2007. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have made progress, swinging the centre ground slightly to the left, and the Tories, despite their seat gains, have remained stationary in the popular vote, making it unlikely that they can win next time around (especially if Howard remains leader, which is now possible given the seat gains). All in all, everything I hoped for, with the exception of beyond-the-pale Galloway’s election.
Also making it impossible for him to carry through his most contentious policies like ID cards.
I can only hope you’re right about that. But given that social authoritarianism is at the heart of the NuLabor project, I think el Presidente will attempt to use his “mandate” to ram it through.
I’m also quite pleased Gorgeous George got elected, if only to liven up PMQ’s.
I doubt LD votes represent a shift to the left, so much as a vote for “none of the above, and damn the war” which is more or less how they were selling themselves.
The swing to Tories though is obviously not about the war (Tories support it) but about ideological rightward drift.
The pattern of lost and gained seats supports this. Seats are leaving Lab and going to LD and Con, but nearly none are being lost *between* LD and Con. Conclusion: two seperate demographics, both leaving for irreconcilable reasons. My suspicion is that NuLab just lost the support of the “moderate right wing” (to Con) and the “middle class pragmatists” (to LD) both of which they were so successful courting in 1997.
I think it’s a good result overall. Naturally, the much-heralded stunning triumph of UKIP over the disintegrating and doomed Tories proves that Howard’s Way is far too left wing & the Tories need tro become more libertarian … er, shome mishtake, surely?
More seriously, the result shows:
1. Voting is worthwhile. The people clearly showed that although they aren’t quite ready to completely accept the Tory position, they nevertheless raised two fingers to Blair. Disenchantment with the government is plainly pretty high.
2. The dawn of three-party politics has yet again, and thankfully, failed to materialise. The limited gains of Twelve-Step Kennedy are not a sign of positive approval but disenchantment with the big two.
3. The Tories won’t be blamed for the impending recession, will have a good economic stick with which to beat Brown, and will start from a smaller disadvantage.
4. Labour is unlikely to be able to push through its more illiberal measures quite so easily. It’s possible the ID card thing might die.
5. Populist issues like immigration and the failure of multiculturalism need to be addressed and will be given more serious attention. The overall surprisingly good performance of the BNP is bound to be ringing some alarm bells.
Overall, I think Julian’s suspicion is correct. Once the governing party loses the support of the moderates and pragmatists, it’s on the way out. This is what happened to the Tories in the 90s, and it’s happening to Labour now. As I have said many times before, a successful party needs to appeal to enough of the moderates in order to win power. Ideology is less important, although there does have to be some general theme.
EG
Chris
It used to be true of the LibDems that they wanted to legalize marijuana and ban tobacco. If they approve of what you want to do you can count on their support: that is what passes for liberalism these days, though I do not think I would call it in the classical tradition.
One general point: has anyone else noticed (if my sums are right) that the Conservatives outpolled Labour in English constituencies but ended up with far fewer seats there? 191 to 283 when I last looked. This is an inequality produced by the smaller size of working class constituencies, rather than the first-past-the-post system. If Mugabe ran things this way, international electoral monitors would complain.
In regards to H’s smug comment, s/he seems to be cornering the market on smugness, although that smirk might start to slip when the wheels fall off the economy and people start thinking the Tories aren’t so bad after all. Anyway…
Anyone keen to hazard a guess when H and Mr Halloway parted company ideologically?
Oops…that ‘H’ should be a ‘G’.
Euan Gray writes:
“I think it’s a good result overall. Naturally, the much-heralded stunning triumph of UKIP over the disintegrating and doomed Tories proves that Howard’s Way is far too left wing & the Tories need tro become more libertarian…”
Strange, I didn’t read anyone claiming that.
I did, though, see people too principled to vote for a Conservative party they profoundly disagreed with and felt was beyond change.
“The man flirted with anti-semitism in order to oust the sitting Labour MP”: Labour hoist with its own petard, then?
Howard has just resigned.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4521941.stm
Julius: [The Lib Dems] are probably the soundest when it comes to a narrow range of civil liberties
So the right to a fair trial, and the right to go about your daily business without having to prove your identity to a policeman are a “narrow range of civil liberties” now are they?
Phil Hunt:
Yes – there’s a lot more where they came from.
The point, as Brian Micklethwait himself has pointed out, is that the difference between the parties’ economic policies are tiny. It is a matter of a few percent of GDP. People apparently want “as much government as we can afford”. Where they do differ significantly is on civil liberties. In this regard the Lib Dems are streets ahead. I stand by my claim: The most libertarian of the 3 main parties are the Lib Dems.
Having now read the Reason piece, it does seem that there are now some in the Lib Dems who appreciate what the liberals once were. But whether they will have any impact remains to be seen.
At present though, the vast majority of Libs Dems are thorough-going statists – completely committed to the “Public Services”/Welfare State consensus and the values of redistributive taxation
The fact that they are correct on some (but by no means all) traditional civili liberties issues, does not make them libertarian any more than it makes Amnesty International libertarian.
Julius, AC didn’t say the Lib Dems were libertarian. He (or she -I don’t know) said they were “more [or most]” libertarian. There’s a difference.
I agree, Julius. Their unflinching support for the NHS, for Euro-Federalism, etc. really isn’t very liberal of them. Plus, while there were reasons for opposing the Iraq war, the demagogic way they went about it was unseemly (appealing to the decidedly illiberal portion of the Muslim vote), and it seemed contradictory for them to so vigorously oppose removing Saddam, given their appellation of Liberal Democrats.
But it’s good to have them around because 1)they give the Tories, the notionally Right-wing party (who will hopefully move Rightwards under a Brown premiership), a chance at victory by splitting the Left (who, depressingly, make up a solid majority of voters at present), and 2)their more classically-liberal MPs are there in the Commons to promote sound ideas and maybe even help curb NuLabour’s authoritarian excesses, especially with the latter’s now-reduced majority.
John Humphrys’ vote was stolen by a postal voter! When he got to the polling station, they said he’d already voted by mail and there was a line drawn through his name. You could not make it up.
I’ve just heard a recording of Humphreys working himself up in indignation at his vote being stolen. Now to say it’s very funny adds nothing to the intellectual debate in here but it is very, very funny.
The simpe truth is that this is yet another scandal-that-never-was. There have been huge increases across the country in postal vote applications and I have no doubt that some constituency results are false because of it. Natalie Solent found anecdotes here(Link) from people diddled and these are just those who frquent BBC Online.
Two weeks ago Blair ruled out a referendum on the Constitution for Europe but we know what that statement’s worth. The electoral system has to be modified very soon or we may find ourselves bounced into the EUSSR for good because of a fraudulant ballot. Will the Tories demand that all is made transparent or are they planning on going back to sleep for another 5 years? This is something which they simply cannot let pass them by.
I wasn’t diddled out of my vote because I voted in person even though the polling station was at least a 200 yard slog down the road but I can imagine too many simply shrugging their shoulders and walking away. Unfortunately this comment may be typical:
No outrage, no threats of complaints to the Police, to the Electoral Commission, to his MP, no demand for justice. Simply a shrug of the shoulders.
My money’s on Morgan Tsvangirai to be the next Tory leader.
The LibDems might be on Left now, but some people still see hope for them:
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text193_p.html
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text208_p.html
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text215_p.html