We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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Debka are also carrying the story of ‘the great escape’ and have guestimated the sort of numbers of Al Qaeda who might have been in the Konduz area when the poop hit the fan and they decided it was time to get the hell out before Rashid Dostam and Daoud Khan of the Northern Alliance over ran the city. Whilst I often disagree with Debka‘s analysis on various issues, their guess in this matter seems as good as anyone else’s. However on their site above the article they show a picture of one of the larger Antonov transport jets. I simply do not believe that one of those could have been landed at Konduz on the dates in question. By all accounts (including remarks by Donald Rumsfeld during a briefing), the airstrip had been heavily bombed and given the close proximity of the Northern Alliance, clearly the late night landing would have been conducted with very minimal lighting.
If Debka are correct that there were actually Pakistani ISI personnel in Konduz, then they must have been frantic to get them out before they fell into the hands of Dostam or Daoud’s boys. Apart from the fact they would possibly die horribly, the prospect of members of the hated ISI being taken alive by the Northern Alliance would have been a severe political embarrassment for Pakistan.
However, mixed among these eager students, were several hundred Pakistani army officers and soldiers in civilian dress, as well as some 120 Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI service agents, representing Pakistan’s secret intelligence and logistical support for the Taliban.
And
After that batch is deducted, a total of 2,500 to 3,000 at most should have been found in the Konduz-Khanabad sector – Saudis, Gulf Arabs, Egyptians, Jordanians, Somalis, Yemenis, Chechens and Palestinians. Intelligence estimates before the Konduz siege put the Saudi extremist component fighting with al Qaeda at 500-700.
Well, if Debka are more or less right (and they are guessing like we all are) about the numbers, and if I am correct that it was a single Antonov An-26 doing these three sorties (and the aborted fourth sortie), then there are still a considerable number of Al Qaeda on the ground in Khanabad (near Konduz) who are probably not having a real good time at the moment.
An Antonov An-26 is usually rated for 40 passengers… assume in an emergency they pack in twice as many people (and from their point of view this was nothing if not an emergency!), and that Pakistan is going to get its own ISI people out first, that still leaves one hell of a lot of Al Qaeda boys well and truly up shit creek.
Hehehehehe.
There is a great little observation on Instapundit noting the fact that militia is not automatically a dirty word to BigMedia(tm) anymore. A short but very interesting piece.
As several people actually have e-mailed the Samizdata to ask, “What’s an Antonov?”… the simple answer is a Russian made transport aircraft. The longer answer is that of the many types of Antonov, reports of the strange going on in Konduz have not specified what kind other than to say it was ‘a big Antonov aircraft’.
I take ‘big’ to mean it was multi-engined, which eliminates the smaller single-engined Antonov An-2 light transports. Likewise I think we can assume no pilot is crazy enough to try to land a large multi-engined jet on an unlit cratered dirt strip at night, so we can safely eliminate any of the large multi-engined Antonov jets.
My guess is that the aircraft in question will turn out to be an Antonov An-26. The Pakistani Airforce operates a single An-26 and it would be perfect for a rough strip landing under less than optimal conditions. My money is on that particular one being the specific aircraft involved in ‘The Great Escape’.
The e-mails keep on rolling in. It seems everyone in bloggerland has an opionion on the ‘great escape’. One such view can be found at Fevered Rants (now that is a great name for a blog).
Thanks to those of you who pointed out to me that there was an article about this in the NY Times (free sign-up required) and that it was mentioned in Canada on CBC early on monday morning.
According to David Rennie in today’s Daily Telegraph, Northern Alliance General Daoud Khan is claiming the Antonov belonged to the Pakistani Airforce and the flights were done with US complicity…and he does not seem too happy about that. Mahmud Shah, a Northern Alliance soldier is quoted:
We had decided to kill all of them, and we are not happy with America for letting the plane come in
Well I’m with you on that one, Mahmud.
Perhaps allowing General Musharraf to send in his airforce to rescue some Pakistani citizens from coming to a sticky end was a way of throwing Pakistan a bone for their continuing support and access to their airspace. It will be interesting to hear the truth when it eventually comes out.
Judging from the number of e-mails I have received with theories of what the the hell might have happened, the story of the audacious escape by Al Qaeda terrorists from Konduz via covert airlift was interesting to many who read this blog. Yet what I really find fascinating is that the US media never did pick up on this story. I would be curious to hear from any Samizdata readers in America if this sorry tale was reported anywhere in the USA.
Now call me naive if you will, but I was under the impression the whole reason for the US involvement in Afghanistan was to apprehend or (preferably) kill as many members of Al Qaeda as humanly possible.
So how in the hell is the escape of three Antonov transport aircraft full of Al Qaeda fighters from Konduz not a major story? David Chater of SkyNews claimed in a new report that I saw at about 14:15 GMT today that the facts were corroborated by source after source within now liberated Konduz, so it really does seem to be a legitimate story. David Williams also mentions this incident in passing today in the Daily Mail. He reports speculation in Konduz that the aircraft were sent by Pakistan to evacuate trapped Pakistani Al Qaeda or Taliban supporters as part of some secret deal (with the US? With the Northern Alliance?). This seems to be just one of several conspiracy theories circulating on the mysterious Konduz airlift during the last days before the Northern Alliance took the city.
Granted, it is not the end of the world and hopefully the US military will catch up with these ‘gentlemen’ again sooner or later, but it is certainly not a trivial incident: so why the deafening silence? CNN have reporter Satinder Bindra in Konduz as well, yet all we get in his reports are soggy ‘human interest’ pieces like “I saw three dead Taliban on the streets today…” (cue video of dead Taliban soldiers covered in flies) and “A Pakistani is taken off in a truck, accused of being a Taliban supporter”…(cue video of terrified bearded Pakistani man being heaved into a truck by grim faced Tajik Northern Alliance soldiers). In short, clueless MTV style photo-journalism rather than serious reporting.
What on earth is going on here? How very curious indeed.
I was reading Ian Murray’s blog The Edge of England’s Sword and followed a link to an interesting article he wrote for Britannica regarding the use of statistics in the victim disarmament debate. It is a excellent piece but the bit that stood out to me was:
The level of contention is so high that acceptance of a set of data by one side often means a knee-jerk rejection by the other. The research of U.S. government agencies should be objective enough to be acceptable to both sides, yet some data produced by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services have been criticized for being biased in favour of gun control.
Now whilst I realise I am a wild-eyed libertarian, it never ceases to amaze me how many people do indeed seem to think that government agencies are somehow less likely to have an axe to grind when they make some pronouncement. States are in no sense a disinterested third party standing apart from sectarian concerns of society. What they are is a group of people defending their own narrow institutional objectives and with a vested interest in finding ‘reasons’ to expand the remit of their authority. To think otherwise is almost hilarious.
Only it is not really funny at all.
20:00 GMT. SkyNews reporters in Konduz are sticking to the story and have uncovered additional details. It is amazing to me how slow the other major media outlets have been at picking up this story! I was just watching CNN and not so much as a whiff of it. For sure, it is the blogs such as this that have run it first on the Internet.
For three nights the Antonov transport aircraft landed at Konduz between US airstrikes (which were said to have been occurring at night at predictable intervals), at around 02:00 am each night. This was attempted again last night but as Northern Alliance forward combat elements had worked their way to the very edge of the airstrip, it was driven off by ground fire and did not land.
It would seem that some Al Qaeda fighters have indeed pulled off a ‘great escape’. A small comfort may be gained from the knowledge that if the Antonov came back again last night unsuccessfully then there still must be Al Qaeda people on the ground who did not make it out on the last flight.
Clearly someone on our side has well and truly dropped the ball for this to have happened. Whilst Al Qaeda may be our loathsome enemies, one can still be struck by the sheer audacity of what they seem to have pulled off. We underestimate these guys at our peril.
Whilst I am only speculating now, my guess is that it was the same aircraft each night (I mean, just how many large Antonov transport aircraft can Al Qaeda have access to?). The fact it came back four times suggests that not only were we not shooting their airlift down but the pilot must have ice water for blood. Landing on an unlit crater pocked airstrip at night, within range of Northern Alliance guns, through a sky ‘owned’ by USN F-18 Hornets? Not a job I would have cared to apply for.
16:15 GMT. A SkyNews reporter was told by one of Northern Alliance General Doud’s forward battlegroup commanders that as his forces rolled into Konduz this morning, they were surprised by the lack of hardcore Al Qaeda fighters. They then discovered from locals that for the last two nights, large Antonov transport aircraft have been landing at the airstrip in the isolated Taliban pocket and airlifting out the trapped foreign Al Qaeda fighters, along with their weapons, flying them to safety under the very noses of the Northern Alliance and Americans.
If this report is true,and the hardcore of Al Qaeda personnel in Konduz have slipped away to points unknown, it is a major setback for the ‘war against terrorism’.
The new developments in the war against Taliban/Al Qaeda could well be the end game, not of the war against global terrorism, but of the first stage of that war. In some ways, the ‘Afghan Interlude’ might actually be the easiest part (a few weeks ago I never thought I would be writing that remark). At least we have a relatively clearly defined enemy in Al Qaeda and their Taliban patrons.
There is still some hard fighting and dirty politicking to be done before Afghanistan is ‘finished’ but I suspect that once the appetizer is well and truly digested, it will be time for the main course: Iraq
Hi Saddam, Condaleeza here. Did you think we had forgotten that Mohammed Atta met with the station chief of Iraqi Intelligence in Prague right before heading off to the USA?
03:15 in the morning GMT. First reports are coming in on satellite and cable channels of a major airmobile helicopter insertion at an airfield near Kandahar by over 1000 US Marines, followed by artillery and other heavy equipment being brought by C-130 Hercules transports. This is clearly not just a raid.
Semper Fi. Godspeed to you all, gentlemen.
Whilst I understand what Dale Amon is saying and largely agree that the American public will be far more resolute now than has been the case since the Vietnam War, I think you should not underestimate the capacity of George Bush’s political enemies to make mischief.
If you think the likes of Hillary Clinton, Dianne Feinstein, Edward Kennedy, Charles Schumer et al. are going to stand resolutely by the President if large numbers of body-bags start coming home, then I think you vastly overestimate their attachment to the interest of American society as opposed to their own narrow political interests. What is more, there are large sections of the US media who will do their damnedest to undermine the Republican Party the moment they no longer think it will be commercial suicide to be seen as ‘unpatriotic’.
For all its many and varied flaws, the British media and the elements of the body politic that actually matter are wired rather differently. That is the reason I made those remarks in my earlier article.
Unlike many of the more inbred nitwits in the British media (i.e. the Daily Mail), I do not subscribe to the idea that all the US military’s special forces all have two left feet and that the United States will immediately recoil with horror at the first sight of American blood. I have lived in the USA on many ocassions and have met enough people in the SpecOps community that I know otherwise. I agree with you that Al Qaeda did a very good job of delivering aversion therapy to the US public regarding casualties. But do not underestimate the vipers within when things start to get messy. They will play the ‘bring the boys back home card’ the instant they they think can safely do so. Perhaps I am wrong about them, but I suspect otherwise.
For those who have been following the ghastly career of Bert as he spreads evil, fear, despair and bizarre haircuts across the face of the globe, here is proof that there is no blow too low for this once loved character gone bad.
Read the full horror of Bert’s treason for yourself.
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