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I have hesitated to post much about Ukraine lately as reliable information is hard to come by. However, the Telegram channels I have long watched on both sides, and personal contacts I have, are awash with similar reports from their own sources.
Make of this what you will.
18 comments to This is interesting: a shift in Ukraine
The Soviet armed forces historically neglected infantry training and tactics – and the Russian army has carried on this bad practice.
Various Russian Generals keep saying that things have changed – that infantry tactics are now being taught, that Russia now has real NCOs (rather than soldiers who survive and are, automatically, promoted – because “he survived – so he must be good”) but on-the-ground the evidence is not yet in of any profound change. Yes there are cases where Russian soldiers have shown initiative – but the general performance of the army is still not good.
On the Ukrainian side, the army had much the same neglect of infantry training till 2014 – but after the fall of Crimea and so on, there was a profound change – and the Ukrainians went much for modern weapons (mostly supplied by Britain and the United States) and training (ditto – mostly supplied by Britain and the United States) the fruits of those weapons (for example anti tank weapons) and training, was shown in 2022.
After four years of war, if the Russian army has still not got its act together in terms of training and tactics, blaming this or that General will not do – the Commander in Chief, Mr Putin, has (at this stage) to be to blame – both for the decision to go to war, and for the terrible tactics and lack of training that have led to such high casualties.
If Mr Putin had any personal honour he would kill himself – as it is, someone else will have to do this for him.
By the way – even if Russia “wins” the war tomorrow, the above still stands – no gains are worth the terrible casualties of Mr Putin’s war.
From a Russian point of view (let alone a Ukrainian point of view) Mr Putin should still be executed – even if he “wins” the war tomorrow. The losses have been vast – and the gains of little value.
As for drones – yes they are important, but perhaps not quite as important as the Gentleman suggests.
Most accounts I’ve read over last year indicate up to 70% of all battlefield casualties on the Ukraine FEBA are caused by drones, so you might be wrong about that.
Drones are to this century what tanks were to the last – only cheaper. They change everything. I hope the brass at Sandhurst, St Cyr and West Point are revising training.
Why do you suspect that? All the statistics I’ve seen indicate in the absence of one side having air superiority (in Ukraine they have mutual air-denial), it’s drones that not only cause most of the casualties, they also provide most of the tactical ISR: drones spot for other drones & for more conventional tube & rocket artillery.
Without reliable airpower, it’s drones & mines that dominate the battlefield, at least for now.
Old Jack Tar: Drones are enormously effective in the trench-like battlefields, killing off soldiers with impunity for their controllers, and also in making excursions into enemy territory to great shock and awe, but . . .
Will the war be won or lost on those battlefields? There’s no real city-busting capability there.
Lee Moore:
Perhaps, if possible, the Ukrainians should be adopting tactics that make it easy for unenthusiastic Russian soldiers to surrender ?
—————————————-
You are applying the Western European cupcake mentality to Eastern Europe.
Old Jack Tar:
Without reliable airpower, it’s drones & mines that dominate the battlefield
—————————————-
Israel makes extensive use of drones even with air dominance, for intel and targeted actions. The basic hardware is already mature – but the list of technologies that can can be miniaturized and plugged in is seemingly endless. Robotics, swarm control algorithms, and AI are in their infancy – and will only multiply drone effectiveness.
Old Jack Tar – because the statistics are very unlikely to be true. And because both sides use drones.
Although, yes, it is harder for the Russian side – due to Mr Musk turning off Star Link for that side, which makes coordination (overall command and control) more difficult for that side.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russian advance (contrary to the video) appears to be continuing – but, I repeat, these gains are of little value, indeed the whole of Ukraine would not be of real value to the Russian people – as it only has things (from hydrocarbons to farm land) that Russia has vast amounts of already.
This war has been, from the start, Mr Putin’s vanity project – he has got a vast number of Russians and Ukrainians killed for no good reason.
From a Russian point of view, let alone a Ukrainian point of view, Mr Putin should be executed – and his “winning” the war does-not-change-that.
Old Jack Tar – because the statistics are very unlikely to be true…
Yet both sides are saying much the same for 2025, ditto all manner of NATO sources. Do you have sources claiming these widely stated numbers are overblow? I’d be interested to see them if you do as I’m always open to analysis from different perspectives, albeit we’ll never get an accurate number until well after this war is over.
And because both sides use drones
That’s right, and both sides have dropped the 70%-75% number (I’ve even seen 80% claimed by the Ukrainian channel of an actual combat some months back (pretty sure it was “Kraken 1654” if you want to doom scroll them for all sorts of interesting stuff)).
Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russian advance (contrary to the video) appears to be continuing
That is not what the pretty reliable Institute for the Study of War is saying, suggesting over last few weeks a gradual net roll back of Russian gains. Linked is just one of their daily updates.
Although the position is NOT one of a uniform Russian advance – there is indeed a Ukrainian counter offensive in at least one area, and Russian forces, in that area, may have been caught in a pocket – in which case they will destroyed via being fired on from at least three sides (a “cauldron”). It is important to know when (and how) to retreat – but such infantry tactics (when and how to retreat) are not taught in the Russian army. Either men retreat in a disorganized way (a rout) or they do not retreat at all – even when they should (to avoid getting killed).
In other sectors the Russians continue to advance – but the advance is utterly pointless as there is nothing in Ukraine that is of any value to the Russian people (Russia already has all the farm land, hydro carbons, and so on, that it needs) – the war remains Mr Putin’s vanity project, which has got a vast number of Russians (and Ukrainians) killed for no good reason what-so-ever – therefore Mr Putin should be executed.
Although there has been a bit of change – the Russian 762 calibre ammunition that is still used even in the latest versions of the AK-15 rifle is still, basically, the ammunition type that was designed (although not used) during the Second World War.
And modern shotguns, which are used against some drones, whilst being different in some respects – still follow much the same principles as shotguns used in the Second World War.
“The more things change – the more they stay the same”.
Ben David: Israel makes extensive use of drones even with air dominance
Indeed, but safe to say it’s airpower that kills most of Israel’s enemies, with drones in a supporting role precisely because IDF operates with Air Supremacy.
“This war has been, from the start, Mr Putin’s vanity project – he has got a vast number of Russians and Ukrainians killed for no good reason.”
Not so sure about that. Hitler invaded via the Ukraine. Russia rightfully sees it as a hugely important area. Going back on the promise not to expand hostile NATO (if you’re Russian then it’s hostile) to Ukraine was VERY significant. A counterbalance/defensive force starts to look liker an offensive one. So what to do?
The West under estimated Russia and their expected response.
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The Soviet armed forces historically neglected infantry training and tactics – and the Russian army has carried on this bad practice.
Various Russian Generals keep saying that things have changed – that infantry tactics are now being taught, that Russia now has real NCOs (rather than soldiers who survive and are, automatically, promoted – because “he survived – so he must be good”) but on-the-ground the evidence is not yet in of any profound change. Yes there are cases where Russian soldiers have shown initiative – but the general performance of the army is still not good.
On the Ukrainian side, the army had much the same neglect of infantry training till 2014 – but after the fall of Crimea and so on, there was a profound change – and the Ukrainians went much for modern weapons (mostly supplied by Britain and the United States) and training (ditto – mostly supplied by Britain and the United States) the fruits of those weapons (for example anti tank weapons) and training, was shown in 2022.
After four years of war, if the Russian army has still not got its act together in terms of training and tactics, blaming this or that General will not do – the Commander in Chief, Mr Putin, has (at this stage) to be to blame – both for the decision to go to war, and for the terrible tactics and lack of training that have led to such high casualties.
If Mr Putin had any personal honour he would kill himself – as it is, someone else will have to do this for him.
By the way – even if Russia “wins” the war tomorrow, the above still stands – no gains are worth the terrible casualties of Mr Putin’s war.
From a Russian point of view (let alone a Ukrainian point of view) Mr Putin should still be executed – even if he “wins” the war tomorrow. The losses have been vast – and the gains of little value.
As for drones – yes they are important, but perhaps not quite as important as the Gentleman suggests.
Most accounts I’ve read over last year indicate up to 70% of all battlefield casualties on the Ukraine FEBA are caused by drones, so you might be wrong about that.
Old Jack Tar – I might be wrong, but I suspect I am not wrong.
Drones are to this century what tanks were to the last – only cheaper. They change everything. I hope the brass at Sandhurst, St Cyr and West Point are revising training.
Why do you suspect that? All the statistics I’ve seen indicate in the absence of one side having air superiority (in Ukraine they have mutual air-denial), it’s drones that not only cause most of the casualties, they also provide most of the tactical ISR: drones spot for other drones & for more conventional tube & rocket artillery.
Without reliable airpower, it’s drones & mines that dominate the battlefield, at least for now.
Old Jack Tar: Drones are enormously effective in the trench-like battlefields, killing off soldiers with impunity for their controllers, and also in making excursions into enemy territory to great shock and awe, but . . .
Will the war be won or lost on those battlefields? There’s no real city-busting capability there.
Perhaps, if possible, the Ukrainians should be adopting tactics that make it easy for unenthusiastic Russian soldiers to surrender ?
I feel sure General Sun would have had something to say about this.
Lee Moore:
Perhaps, if possible, the Ukrainians should be adopting tactics that make it easy for unenthusiastic Russian soldiers to surrender ?
—————————————-
You are applying the Western European cupcake mentality to Eastern Europe.
Old Jack Tar:
Without reliable airpower, it’s drones & mines that dominate the battlefield
—————————————-
Israel makes extensive use of drones even with air dominance, for intel and targeted actions. The basic hardware is already mature – but the list of technologies that can can be miniaturized and plugged in is seemingly endless. Robotics, swarm control algorithms, and AI are in their infancy – and will only multiply drone effectiveness.
Ukrainian tactics for convincing unenthusiastic Russian soldiers to surrender:
1. Tell them to raise their hands and wave a white flag and say “Don’t shoot, I surrender.”
2. Tell them to wait for further instructions.
3. Tell them to follow instructions when they are given.
4. And in case they fail to follow instructions tell them “If you don’t surrender NOW we will kill you.”
There. Simple, no?
Old Jack Tar – because the statistics are very unlikely to be true. And because both sides use drones.
Although, yes, it is harder for the Russian side – due to Mr Musk turning off Star Link for that side, which makes coordination (overall command and control) more difficult for that side.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russian advance (contrary to the video) appears to be continuing – but, I repeat, these gains are of little value, indeed the whole of Ukraine would not be of real value to the Russian people – as it only has things (from hydrocarbons to farm land) that Russia has vast amounts of already.
This war has been, from the start, Mr Putin’s vanity project – he has got a vast number of Russians and Ukrainians killed for no good reason.
From a Russian point of view, let alone a Ukrainian point of view, Mr Putin should be executed – and his “winning” the war does-not-change-that.
Yet both sides are saying much the same for 2025, ditto all manner of NATO sources. Do you have sources claiming these widely stated numbers are overblow? I’d be interested to see them if you do as I’m always open to analysis from different perspectives, albeit we’ll never get an accurate number until well after this war is over.
That’s right, and both sides have dropped the 70%-75% number (I’ve even seen 80% claimed by the Ukrainian channel of an actual combat some months back (pretty sure it was “Kraken 1654” if you want to doom scroll them for all sorts of interesting stuff)).
That is not what the pretty reliable Institute for the Study of War is saying, suggesting over last few weeks a gradual net roll back of Russian gains. Linked is just one of their daily updates.
Old Jack Tar and Perry.
I respectfully disagree – but we shall see.
Although the position is NOT one of a uniform Russian advance – there is indeed a Ukrainian counter offensive in at least one area, and Russian forces, in that area, may have been caught in a pocket – in which case they will destroyed via being fired on from at least three sides (a “cauldron”). It is important to know when (and how) to retreat – but such infantry tactics (when and how to retreat) are not taught in the Russian army. Either men retreat in a disorganized way (a rout) or they do not retreat at all – even when they should (to avoid getting killed).
In other sectors the Russians continue to advance – but the advance is utterly pointless as there is nothing in Ukraine that is of any value to the Russian people (Russia already has all the farm land, hydro carbons, and so on, that it needs) – the war remains Mr Putin’s vanity project, which has got a vast number of Russians (and Ukrainians) killed for no good reason what-so-ever – therefore Mr Putin should be executed.
Although there has been a bit of change – the Russian 762 calibre ammunition that is still used even in the latest versions of the AK-15 rifle is still, basically, the ammunition type that was designed (although not used) during the Second World War.
And modern shotguns, which are used against some drones, whilst being different in some respects – still follow much the same principles as shotguns used in the Second World War.
“The more things change – the more they stay the same”.
Indeed, but safe to say it’s airpower that kills most of Israel’s enemies, with drones in a supporting role precisely because IDF operates with Air Supremacy.
“This war has been, from the start, Mr Putin’s vanity project – he has got a vast number of Russians and Ukrainians killed for no good reason.”
Not so sure about that. Hitler invaded via the Ukraine. Russia rightfully sees it as a hugely important area. Going back on the promise not to expand hostile NATO (if you’re Russian then it’s hostile) to Ukraine was VERY significant. A counterbalance/defensive force starts to look liker an offensive one. So what to do?
The West under estimated Russia and their expected response.