It is easy to underestimate how radical a change in strategy this is.
It simply would not have been possible in previous wars. Airpower capable of striking significantly behind the front lines did not exist until World War 2. Since then, command and control structures have been too widely dispersed and hardened to make broad attacks on them even theoretically possible until now.
Yes, countries sometimes try to kill each other’s top leaders. But assassinations are less common than civilians realize. Leaders generally do not target each other directly in wars — maybe hoping for a similar courtesy from the other side, or maybe because killing the other side’s leaders can make negotiating peace more difficult.
In any case, what Israel and the United States are trying is not a singular assassination but continuous attacks on a national command structure while at the same time sparing civilians to the extent possible. (Yes, the United States appears to have killed almost 200 girls in a Tomahawk attack. But the strike was clearly a mistake, not a strategic choice. It has not been repeated, and the United States is not trying to defend it.)
The American-Israeli goal is very clear: to convince the people at the top of the Iranian regime that they, and their replacements, and their replacements’ replacements, will die, and die very soon, unless they capitulate.
Can this strategy work?
I don’t know. Since it’s never been tried before, I’m not sure anyone does.
Yes – I understand how the war is being fought and why it is being fought (none of this is a secret – it has been openly stated, many times), the strategy is indeed to kill the enemy leaders, and the reason for the war is the build up of IRI forces (for example underground drone factories) which, if left to develop, would have made it impossible in-the-future to stop the IRI developing nuclear weapons – which as the regime is Shia 12er “Hastener” they WOULD use. Donald John Trump warned about the dangers of this as far back as the 1980s.
The astonishing is how the British media understand none of the above – for example there was, this week, an editorial in the Spectator which sort-of understood, but last weeks’s edition (and much of the magazine this week) is just TDS drivel – ravings by “Freddy” Gray and others.
“Private Eye” is as one would expect, it has been motivated by hatred of Jews since its campaigns against the late Sir James Goldsmith (who it lied about, smeared, on a regular basis) – all “Private Eye” has to know is that President Trump has allied with Israel, as he has done this President Trump must, in their view, be evil – and so must be attacked as viciously as possible. Essentially, like the Guardian newspaper, Private Eye is a sort of British version of the old German newspaper edited by the late Julius Streicher.
However, the Economist magazine (which has no such history) is, on the war, much the same as Private Eye – equally mad-and-bad.
Even GB News seems often clueless – its news broadcasts (not all of its opinion broadcasts) are utterly ignorant on “all things Trump”.
The other British television stations are vastly worse – people who get their view of the world from the BBC, Channel Four, Sky News (and so on) are like Hurin in Tolkien’s “Silmarillion” – forced to see the world via Morgoth the original Dark Lord (who had ordered that he be taken alive at the Battle of Unnumbered Tears), so although Hurin was a good (indeed noble) man – he saw “all things crooked”.
When Hurin found out that he had been deceived, and had done much harm, he killed himself.
By the way – before someone jumps up and claims I support the execution of Mr Streicher after the war, and would want the people in charge of Private Eye and the Guardian hanged….. as disgusting as the words and cartoons of Mr Streicher were of course (of course) I do NOT support his execution, or the life imprisonment of Mr Hess (who was not even in Germany during the Holocaust – he was in the Tower of London after an abortive peace mission to Britain, and Mr Hess was also mentally ill).
One can detest what people (for example Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens – the latter, Candace Owens, may be mentally ill, but Mr Carlson is just a wicked man who enjoys pushing lies) say, whilst still understanding the basic truth that they must NOT be punished for their words.
Denis Prager (in very poor health) sat through the output of Candace Owens (many hours) and wrote a detailed refutation of her words (regardless of whether the poor lady really knows what she is saying) – that is the correct approach, the use of facts and logical argument in refutation, NOT the hangman.
If someone claims to be Napoleon Bonaparte, or that all blue eyed people eat babies (or whatever), one carefully sets out the evidence and arguments showing that they are in error – one does NOT hang them.
Sometimes the British media produce lies that are so extreme that they are actually amusing.
For example, yesterday the Daily Mirror newspaper claimed that “the Tories” had “underfunded” things during Covid – no mention of the almost half a Trillion Pounds thrown away on establishment policies, or the utter failure to use effective Early Treatments on Covid (and there were such treatments), or the harm done by Covid injections (the so-called “vaccines” – which were not vaccines).
I must confess that the utter absurdity of the Daily Mirror headline (which I spotted in a supermarket) cheered me up – the utter rejection of even the most remote connected with reality, was oddly amusing.
Funny Paul should mention The Spectator, since earlier today I read Jonathan Spyer’s the latest article there. Compare the title (which Spyer says he did not write):
to the final paragraph:
Yes Alisa – unlike last week, not all the articles in this week’s Spectator were bad (although many were).
And yes – I get the point about the people deciding on the titles of articles having their own (nasty) agenda.
The editor of the Spectator is Michael “Covid lockdown should have been stricter” Gove – and the Deputy Editor is Freddy TDS Gray – but then you know this.
Still at least it is not the Daily Mirror – which has lost any connection with reality what-so-ever.
In the world of the Daily Mirror (and the Guardian and ……) President Trump is, at the same time, a moron and filled with evil cunning – a clown and (at the same time) one of the principle, and most intelligent, agents of Satan.
And quite a few British people believe this – the same sort of people who believe in “Hate Speech” edicts, and wake up in the middle of the night terrified that a Boy Scout might (possibly) own a penknife.
Paul:
I didn’t know this and it is beside the point of the post on which we are commenting here — which is leadership assassinations. But since you mentioned it, Jonathan Spyer has been regularly writing for The Spectator since October 2023 — and he is definitely one of the good guys, as well as one of the knowledgeable on matters Middle East.
Alisa – quite so.
I was trying to explain why the headline was what it was – Mr Spyer did not write it (as you pointed out).
By the way – the process has to go down the command ranks.
All local leaders of the Revolutionary Guard have to be killed.
Indeed Paul — and so far, so good 🙏
A peripheral issue, but…
Questions have been asked also about Tucker’s mental health.
As you know, my position is that everybody is presumed to be mentally ill, until & unless proven to be mentally healthy. And ‘everybody’ includes me.
Also, since toxins accumulate in the brain, mental health a few years ago does not guarantee mental health today.
I hate the word “strategy”. Nothing is strategy, it’s just empty pretensions.
As to trying to kill opponent leaders – in war you do what you can. Will it help? Maybe. Is it worth doing? Definitely.
I hate the word “strategy”. Nothing is strategy, it’s just empty pretensions.
As to trying to kill opponent leaders – in war you do what you can. Will it help? Maybe. Is it worth doing? Definitely.
“New kind of war” — not at all.
Snorri Godhi – Mr Carlson has had that nervous laugh for many years – but, yes, it could be a sign of a medical problem (I do not know).
With Candace Owens the mental illness is horribly obvious – her wild statements are not just about “the Jews”, supposedly the Moon Landings were faked, the dinosaurs were not real, and on-and-on. And what is even more horrible is that the “friends” of the lady make no effort to help her (help the lady get the medical help she needs) – instead they “affirm” her delusions, they lead her deeper and deeper into madness – and, yes, they financially profit from it.
Alisa – yes indeed, so far, so good.
But easier for me to write that – as I am not under fire, as everyone in Israel is.
Daft comment. You must not understand what the word means, not really.
“All local leaders of the Revolutionary Guard have to be killed.”
I think the many thousands of equally ideologically committed soldiers underneath these leaders also need to meet an early end. They’re not changing their minds just because their leaders are dead. Foot soldiers do the killing, never forget that.
tim – many men join the Revolutionary Guard to have an opportunity to bully ordinary people – and to rob, and RAPE, without punishment.
But the commanders are ideologically committed – they really do think that if they die fighting infidels they will go to Paradise, O.K. kill them – as that is what they desire.
Sort them out later.
My sentiments exactly
The commanders, including local commanders, of the Revolutionary Guard must be killed – NOW.
The ordinary thugs, the people in the Revolutionary Guard because they want to steal and rape, can be dealt with later – but the commanders who sincerely believe in the Islamic Republic of Iran “Hastener” cause, must be killed NOW.
If the commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, including the local commanders, are not killed – they will carry on attacking ships and carry on attacking other countries.
As Perry says on another thread – anything less than removing the regime is a fail, and to remove the regime the Revolutionary Guard must be destroyed.