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Preston Stewart has some interesting reportage about Russia being abruptly cut off from Starlink.
Whilst this is fascinating from a technical and military point of view, it also brings into focus the sheer power of one man for good or ill… Elon Musk.
“Whilst this is fascinating from a technical and military point of view, it also brings into focus the sheer power of one man for good or ill… Elon Musk.”
And another: Vladimir Putin. He could have chosen not to have invaded Ukraine in the first place.
He trusted Western technology in 2022 – and lost hundreds of billions of Dollars, because the “money” had no physical existence – it was just data on Western computers (based in Belgium). It is insane to sell food and vital raw materials for “payment” that has no real existence.
Surely even Mr Putin can not be relying on Western technology for targeting and communications in time of war?
Yes various sites (such as Military Summary) say that he has done this – but it is very hard to believe.
Relations between the West and Russia have been terrible since at least 2014 – surely Mr Putin, and his military, have developed independent targeting and communications technology? Perhaps they have not – but it is baffling.
”Surely even Mr Putin can not be relying on Western technology for targeting and communications in time of war?”
The Russians have nothing even close to Starlink. In satellite communications they are about three *generations* behind Europe and four generations behind America.
”Relations between the West and Russia have been terrible since at least 2014 – surely Mr Putin, and his military, have developed independent targeting and communications technology? Perhaps they have not – but it is baffling.”
They have not. When they invaded Ukraine in 2022 their military used a cellular-based communications system. Of course when they crossed the border into Ukraine that system then connected to *Ukrainian* cell towers. The Ukrainians didn’t even have to intercept the signals. Their operators just had to sit at the consoles in their own cellular company and listen in.
When the Russians figured that out after the Ukrainians publicly mocked them for it, they switched to cheap Chinese civilian radios bought online. They were unencrypted, so the Ukrainians could still just listen in, but at least then they were making the Ukrainians intercept the signals instead of delivering the signals directly to the Ukrainian home office.
Now most Russian military communication occurs over the Telegram social media platform. They are trying to launch a “Russian Starlink”, but that system is having satellite production issues. Supposedly the first 16 satellites for that system will launch later this month. I doubt it will be comparable.
mkent – this reminds me of the old practice of not teaching ordinary Soviet soldiers codes, so orders had (sometimes) to be sent in “clear” over the radio which the Germans listened to. The Red Army sometimes used messengers – people carrying physical orders. For example, someone that A.S. met in a camp – one of the few people he met who was actually guilty, the man had been given orders to get a Red Army unit to retreat before the Germans encircled them “get them to retreat – save them!”, but had been too terrified to go through the enemy artillery fire and air attacks to deliver the orders, he had hid – and been found out. It would have been more humane to just shoot him there-and-then rather than send him to the slow death of the camp (AS only survived because he was sent to research unit for part of his sentence – due to his skill at mathematics).
Of course, the German forces were not quite as clever as they thought they were – as their code had been broken by the British, and the British passed on the “secret” German orders to the Soviets – hence the terrible failure of the Kursk Offensive in 1943 (the last chance to turn the tide in the wast).
The Russian military does not need something as high tech as Starlink – but it does need secure and dependable communications, if the Commander in Chief, Mr Putin, has not made sure that the Russian military has secure, dependable and INDEPENDENT communications technology then he needs to be executed.
Yes executed – after all he has been Commander in Chief for almost 26 years, there is no excuse.
To go to war whilst being unprepared for war is treason – and to still be unprepared after four years of war, is doubly treason.
The penalty should be death.
So we shall see whether or not the Russian military has alternative communications methods – that are effective.
1. Many are gloom-and-doomy, saying both the Russians and the Ukrainians have been pushed back in terms of communications to 2022, but the Ukrainian Starlink terminals are already coming back online.
2. Most are not really blaming Musk. Some even say he bought Russia 3+ years to build its own alternatives.
3. Some point out that Russian efforts to do that have followed a predictable pattern:
– “We need this pronto”
– “Here’s the money, here’s who is in charge”
– Those in charge announce grand plans
– Medvedev, Peskov and the like parrot those plans. Rogozin of Roskosmos mocked Musk, saying he’d need a trampoline to launch that many satellites
– The money is looted, virtually nothing materializes
– Those in charge are jailed or flee abroad
– Rinse and repeat
4. To the extent that Russia has some alternatives, they are much slower, more bandwidth-constrained, and more expensive than Starlink.
5. Several channels have suggested using the identities of dead or captured Ukrainian soldiers (including torture to obtain credentials) to bypass the restrictions.
How many times in this war have I heard stories with headlines like “Disaster for Russia” or “This changes everything”? The Times and The Military Show are particularly bad examples. If Ukraine were to start retaking its territory I might start believing it but not before.
Having said that, I am struggling to think of a time when civilian technology has proved superior in a war to designed-for-the-purpose military technology.
For those who are surprised that the Russians have been using Starlink, things are actually much, much worse. We have accidental military espionage honey pots emerging out of completely legitimate video games. The developers hate this, but have been unable to stop these military war games from receiving classified corrections to their military equipment stats through the game forums, soon to be followed up by irate calls from national military lawyers and people are doing it from every military across the world that deploy the relevant systems.
Below is a forum thread for a game I had previously never heard of, listing a fairly hefty number of leaks. I found this, hunting for the same for other games I had heard of.
Johnathan Pearce – yes, but there is a difference between coming up with a crazy plan four years ago “send the airborne troops in – and the armoured forces will come down this long (very long) narrow road to rescue them before they are overwhelmed” (had Mr Putin seen “A Bridge Too Far” and thought it was a great plan) and carrying on making mistakes like this.
He lost 300 Billion Dollars (“not much if you say it quick”) because he accepted electronic payment for real goods (food, weapons, energy supplies such as gas, and raw materials) rather than demanding physical payment – or, at least, demanding that the computers with the “foreign exchange” on them be in RUSSIA – not Belgium. One would have thought he would have learned not to trust Westerners and their electronic stuff.
Although, to be fair, some people claim that Mr Putin’s plan in 2022 would have worked – had not vast numbers of anti tank weapons been given to the Ukrainians – but then Mr Putin should have known the West would do that.
Meanwhile the Russian offensive grinds on – towards a “victory” that will gain the Russian people NOTHING, and has cost the lives of a vast number of Russians and a vast number of Ukrainians.
Mr Putin is not a real alternative to the traitor governments of most of the West (and they are indeed traitor governments – they are destroying their own nations, their own people) – because he is also a traitor to his own people, to the Russian people, as well as an enemy of the Ukrainians.
By the way it will not be long before the Chinese finally get bored of buying up Western assets and land with the fiat money they have been “paid” for their manufactured goods, or till the Westerners finally wake up and realize that if they allow the People’s Republic of China to buy their land they, the Westerners will be SERFS (if even that) and forbid the sale of assets to China, then China will start demanding physical payment – in real money (actual gold or silver).
Then the Westerners will finally understand the folly of allowing their manufacturing industries to be destroyed.
Anyone who thinks that Adam Smith, A.L. Perry and the other Free Trade economists meant creating “money” from nothing to “pay for” imports is WRONG – they did not support such insanity, they believed that imports should be paid for by exports – with people specializing in making what they are best at making.
The economic system that emerged in the 1970s (yes as late as that) – is utterly insane, and will collapse.
I have two thoughts on this — it is a pretty risky thing for a commercial company to do. Although nuclear war is the worst possible outcome there is one step down from that which is a military destroying a few satellites in orbit which would likely deny us access to space due to the Kessler syndrome. This is not a nuclear winter scenario but it would be quite devastating to modern life. And Musk choosing to do this he makes his satellites legitimate military targets. I’ll leave it up to you if you think this is justified or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.
Secondly, if we are at the mercy of Musk, I think we are very lucky it is him and not someone else. I’ve watched this guy for years and he is simply not about getting rich and powerful even though he is both. He is genuinely, primarily focused on advancing the human condition for everyone — it underlies almost everything he does. He does dumb stuff for sure and in particular says really dumb stuff. Google’s motto used to be “Don’t be evil” Musk is a step beyond that in “Do good, advance the human condition”. He is about free speech, advancing prosperity, managing the risk of AI, transforming the economy with AI and robotics, opening up connectivity, and, I suppose eventually building extra terrestrial habitations. You don’t see wasting his time lollygagging about on yachts or living in fancy mansions. You see him working insanely hard to advance the human condition.
I’ve said it before he is not only the most important human being alive today, I think when the doing is done, he will be one of the most important and transformative humans to have ever lived. How lucky we all are that he is a good guy and not a crazy megalomaniac.
Fraser Orr – I disagree with your first point and agree with your second point.
This is NOT aggression against Russia – all Mr Musk is saying is “you can not use my service”, he is not preventing Russia or China setting up a service of their own, and what he has done does not make his satellites legitimate military targets.
But I agree with your second point – Mr Musk is one of the Good Guys, on many matters.
Paul Marks: “[W]hat [Musk] has done does not make his satellites legitimate military targets.”
Hmm… that would depend.
If he is allowing the Ukrainian military to use Starlink, then his satellites are legitimate military targets for the Russians because they represent a Ukrainian command, control, communications and intelligence node.
The Russians would have to balance the idea of any such attacks with their international consequences of course.
If he is allowing the Ukrainian military to use Starlink, then his satellites are legitimate military targets for the Russians
You obviously didn’t watch the video.
1. By that logic, Poland is also a legit target as it is Ukraine’s main logistic hub.
2. Russian Starlinks are ‘grey market’, so Ukraine, which has always used Starlink, drew up a white-list & Musk disconnected every Starlink in the region that wasn’t on the list.
Now the trouble with ASAT intercepts is it creates lots of indiscriminate unpredictable debris that then kills any satellite colliding with it, be they US, Chinese, European, Indian, or Russian. That’s why Russia is unlikely to do that as I can’t think of anything else better calculated to piss off Russia’s few remaining allies. Plus Russia is working on their own version of Starlink.
@bobby b Sort of an outmoded concept. Was Ukraine a legit military target?
Apparently the Russians thought so. And that, after all, is what makes the difference. Would the Russians think this change makes Starlink a legitimate target? I’m sure the answer is plainly yes. So they have to choose between the risk and reward of doing so.
Saying “oh it is just a matter of who is offered service” is not a great argument. After all, if company X makes tanks and sells them to Ukraine but not Russia, then we cannot argue that it is just a matter of who is offered a product. That tank factory becomes, in Russia’s mind anyway, a legitimate target. Whether they chose to attack it (for example, if it were in a NATO country) is a matter of judging the risks verses the reward.
But something that offers an asymmetric military advantage to one side over the other is going to be considered a military target. Of course you might argue that Russia has NO legitimate military targets and you might be right. But in terms of what THEY do it is entirely to do what their view of the matter is.
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“Whilst this is fascinating from a technical and military point of view, it also brings into focus the sheer power of one man for good or ill… Elon Musk.”
And another: Vladimir Putin. He could have chosen not to have invaded Ukraine in the first place.
Indeed. But Vlad Putin is, unfortunately, Tsar of Russia. Elon Musk is a very successful tech bro.
I prefer Elon Musk to Mr Putin.
However, can even Mr Putin really be this stupid?
He trusted Western technology in 2022 – and lost hundreds of billions of Dollars, because the “money” had no physical existence – it was just data on Western computers (based in Belgium). It is insane to sell food and vital raw materials for “payment” that has no real existence.
Surely even Mr Putin can not be relying on Western technology for targeting and communications in time of war?
Yes various sites (such as Military Summary) say that he has done this – but it is very hard to believe.
Relations between the West and Russia have been terrible since at least 2014 – surely Mr Putin, and his military, have developed independent targeting and communications technology? Perhaps they have not – but it is baffling.
The level of Russian military incompetence at all levels has been breathtaking in this war.
The Russians have nothing even close to Starlink. In satellite communications they are about three *generations* behind Europe and four generations behind America.
They have not. When they invaded Ukraine in 2022 their military used a cellular-based communications system. Of course when they crossed the border into Ukraine that system then connected to *Ukrainian* cell towers. The Ukrainians didn’t even have to intercept the signals. Their operators just had to sit at the consoles in their own cellular company and listen in.
When the Russians figured that out after the Ukrainians publicly mocked them for it, they switched to cheap Chinese civilian radios bought online. They were unencrypted, so the Ukrainians could still just listen in, but at least then they were making the Ukrainians intercept the signals instead of delivering the signals directly to the Ukrainian home office.
Now most Russian military communication occurs over the Telegram social media platform. They are trying to launch a “Russian Starlink”, but that system is having satellite production issues. Supposedly the first 16 satellites for that system will launch later this month. I doubt it will be comparable.
mkent – this reminds me of the old practice of not teaching ordinary Soviet soldiers codes, so orders had (sometimes) to be sent in “clear” over the radio which the Germans listened to. The Red Army sometimes used messengers – people carrying physical orders. For example, someone that A.S. met in a camp – one of the few people he met who was actually guilty, the man had been given orders to get a Red Army unit to retreat before the Germans encircled them “get them to retreat – save them!”, but had been too terrified to go through the enemy artillery fire and air attacks to deliver the orders, he had hid – and been found out. It would have been more humane to just shoot him there-and-then rather than send him to the slow death of the camp (AS only survived because he was sent to research unit for part of his sentence – due to his skill at mathematics).
Of course, the German forces were not quite as clever as they thought they were – as their code had been broken by the British, and the British passed on the “secret” German orders to the Soviets – hence the terrible failure of the Kursk Offensive in 1943 (the last chance to turn the tide in the wast).
The Russian military does not need something as high tech as Starlink – but it does need secure and dependable communications, if the Commander in Chief, Mr Putin, has not made sure that the Russian military has secure, dependable and INDEPENDENT communications technology then he needs to be executed.
Yes executed – after all he has been Commander in Chief for almost 26 years, there is no excuse.
To go to war whilst being unprepared for war is treason – and to still be unprepared after four years of war, is doubly treason.
The penalty should be death.
So we shall see whether or not the Russian military has alternative communications methods – that are effective.
We shall see if the Telegram communications system is sufficient for the Russian offensive to successfully continue – we will know soon.
The Russian z-bloggers’ reactions were a hoot.
1. Many are gloom-and-doomy, saying both the Russians and the Ukrainians have been pushed back in terms of communications to 2022, but the Ukrainian Starlink terminals are already coming back online.
2. Most are not really blaming Musk. Some even say he bought Russia 3+ years to build its own alternatives.
3. Some point out that Russian efforts to do that have followed a predictable pattern:
– “We need this pronto”
– “Here’s the money, here’s who is in charge”
– Those in charge announce grand plans
– Medvedev, Peskov and the like parrot those plans. Rogozin of Roskosmos mocked Musk, saying he’d need a trampoline to launch that many satellites
– The money is looted, virtually nothing materializes
– Those in charge are jailed or flee abroad
– Rinse and repeat
4. To the extent that Russia has some alternatives, they are much slower, more bandwidth-constrained, and more expensive than Starlink.
5. Several channels have suggested using the identities of dead or captured Ukrainian soldiers (including torture to obtain credentials) to bypass the restrictions.
Paul: “Can even Mr Putin be this stupid?”
It looks like this. He thought he could overthrow Ukraine in a week. How’s that working out?
How many times in this war have I heard stories with headlines like “Disaster for Russia” or “This changes everything”? The Times and The Military Show are particularly bad examples. If Ukraine were to start retaking its territory I might start believing it but not before.
Having said that, I am struggling to think of a time when civilian technology has proved superior in a war to designed-for-the-purpose military technology.
Patrick, the video makes it clear this doesn’t mean Russia’s army tips over.
For those who are surprised that the Russians have been using Starlink, things are actually much, much worse. We have accidental military espionage honey pots emerging out of completely legitimate video games. The developers hate this, but have been unable to stop these military war games from receiving classified corrections to their military equipment stats through the game forums, soon to be followed up by irate calls from national military lawyers and people are doing it from every military across the world that deploy the relevant systems.
Below is a forum thread for a game I had previously never heard of, listing a fairly hefty number of leaks. I found this, hunting for the same for other games I had heard of.
Information systems discipline is entirely out of control:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?l=polish&id=2924096000
Johnathan Pearce – yes, but there is a difference between coming up with a crazy plan four years ago “send the airborne troops in – and the armoured forces will come down this long (very long) narrow road to rescue them before they are overwhelmed” (had Mr Putin seen “A Bridge Too Far” and thought it was a great plan) and carrying on making mistakes like this.
He lost 300 Billion Dollars (“not much if you say it quick”) because he accepted electronic payment for real goods (food, weapons, energy supplies such as gas, and raw materials) rather than demanding physical payment – or, at least, demanding that the computers with the “foreign exchange” on them be in RUSSIA – not Belgium. One would have thought he would have learned not to trust Westerners and their electronic stuff.
Although, to be fair, some people claim that Mr Putin’s plan in 2022 would have worked – had not vast numbers of anti tank weapons been given to the Ukrainians – but then Mr Putin should have known the West would do that.
Meanwhile the Russian offensive grinds on – towards a “victory” that will gain the Russian people NOTHING, and has cost the lives of a vast number of Russians and a vast number of Ukrainians.
Mr Putin is not a real alternative to the traitor governments of most of the West (and they are indeed traitor governments – they are destroying their own nations, their own people) – because he is also a traitor to his own people, to the Russian people, as well as an enemy of the Ukrainians.
By the way it will not be long before the Chinese finally get bored of buying up Western assets and land with the fiat money they have been “paid” for their manufactured goods, or till the Westerners finally wake up and realize that if they allow the People’s Republic of China to buy their land they, the Westerners will be SERFS (if even that) and forbid the sale of assets to China, then China will start demanding physical payment – in real money (actual gold or silver).
Then the Westerners will finally understand the folly of allowing their manufacturing industries to be destroyed.
Anyone who thinks that Adam Smith, A.L. Perry and the other Free Trade economists meant creating “money” from nothing to “pay for” imports is WRONG – they did not support such insanity, they believed that imports should be paid for by exports – with people specializing in making what they are best at making.
The economic system that emerged in the 1970s (yes as late as that) – is utterly insane, and will collapse.
I have two thoughts on this — it is a pretty risky thing for a commercial company to do. Although nuclear war is the worst possible outcome there is one step down from that which is a military destroying a few satellites in orbit which would likely deny us access to space due to the Kessler syndrome. This is not a nuclear winter scenario but it would be quite devastating to modern life. And Musk choosing to do this he makes his satellites legitimate military targets. I’ll leave it up to you if you think this is justified or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.
Secondly, if we are at the mercy of Musk, I think we are very lucky it is him and not someone else. I’ve watched this guy for years and he is simply not about getting rich and powerful even though he is both. He is genuinely, primarily focused on advancing the human condition for everyone — it underlies almost everything he does. He does dumb stuff for sure and in particular says really dumb stuff. Google’s motto used to be “Don’t be evil” Musk is a step beyond that in “Do good, advance the human condition”. He is about free speech, advancing prosperity, managing the risk of AI, transforming the economy with AI and robotics, opening up connectivity, and, I suppose eventually building extra terrestrial habitations. You don’t see wasting his time lollygagging about on yachts or living in fancy mansions. You see him working insanely hard to advance the human condition.
I’ve said it before he is not only the most important human being alive today, I think when the doing is done, he will be one of the most important and transformative humans to have ever lived. How lucky we all are that he is a good guy and not a crazy megalomaniac.
Fraser Orr – I disagree with your first point and agree with your second point.
This is NOT aggression against Russia – all Mr Musk is saying is “you can not use my service”, he is not preventing Russia or China setting up a service of their own, and what he has done does not make his satellites legitimate military targets.
But I agree with your second point – Mr Musk is one of the Good Guys, on many matters.
Paul Marks: “[W]hat [Musk] has done does not make his satellites legitimate military targets.”
Hmm… that would depend.
If he is allowing the Ukrainian military to use Starlink, then his satellites are legitimate military targets for the Russians because they represent a Ukrainian command, control, communications and intelligence node.
The Russians would have to balance the idea of any such attacks with their international consequences of course.
You obviously didn’t watch the video.
1. By that logic, Poland is also a legit target as it is Ukraine’s main logistic hub.
2. Russian Starlinks are ‘grey market’, so Ukraine, which has always used Starlink, drew up a white-list & Musk disconnected every Starlink in the region that wasn’t on the list.
Now the trouble with ASAT intercepts is it creates lots of indiscriminate unpredictable debris that then kills any satellite colliding with it, be they US, Chinese, European, Indian, or Russian. That’s why Russia is unlikely to do that as I can’t think of anything else better calculated to piss off Russia’s few remaining allies. Plus Russia is working on their own version of Starlink.
“You obviously didn’t watch the video.”
And you obviously didn’t read my last line:
“The Russians would have to balance the idea of any such attacks with their international consequences of course..”
JJM – no Mr Musk’s satellites are not legitimate military targets, although Mr Putin (in his folly) may target them anyway.
The Ukrainians seem to be engaged in counter attacks.
Whether Russian infantry have yet learned to counter such attacks, and continue their offensive, remains to be seen.
Infantry training has been neglected in the Russian army for a very long time – we shall soon see if this is still the case.
Sort of an outmoded concept. Was Ukraine a legit military target?
@bobby b
Sort of an outmoded concept. Was Ukraine a legit military target?
Apparently the Russians thought so. And that, after all, is what makes the difference. Would the Russians think this change makes Starlink a legitimate target? I’m sure the answer is plainly yes. So they have to choose between the risk and reward of doing so.
Saying “oh it is just a matter of who is offered service” is not a great argument. After all, if company X makes tanks and sells them to Ukraine but not Russia, then we cannot argue that it is just a matter of who is offered a product. That tank factory becomes, in Russia’s mind anyway, a legitimate target. Whether they chose to attack it (for example, if it were in a NATO country) is a matter of judging the risks verses the reward.
But something that offers an asymmetric military advantage to one side over the other is going to be considered a military target. Of course you might argue that Russia has NO legitimate military targets and you might be right. But in terms of what THEY do it is entirely to do what their view of the matter is.
Well, well. Has no-one ever read the original Foundation trilogy? There’s an almost exactly same event depicted there.