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Samizdata quote of the day – The Two Mearsheimers There have been so many criticisms of Mearsheimer that I doubt anyone cares at this point. But I wanted to raise something rarely mentioned: M. is not actually making a realist argument. Which is ironic given how much damage he has done to the realist brand.
I’m going to share a secret only political scientists know about. There are actually two John J. Mearsheimers. The first one wrote The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001) and says powerful states are dissatisfied by nature, and will go to war whenever they can. The second one, born in 2014, disagrees. Yes, states go to war because it’s the central feature of political life — except Russia, who goes to war because of American liberals. The first Mearsheimer is a theorist of international anarchy. The second is a moralist of American sin. The two have never met, but if they did they would hate each other.
– Seva Gunitsky
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Good article. Mearsheimer would argue for a second version of the Laws of Thermodynamics if that would help to validate his own preferences.
The comments below the article are also quite interesting.
One explanation is he’s now on Putin’s payroll
Could be, Old Jack Tar, or he might just like being “edgy”. But yeah, my guess is Roubles
Yet another confusion of Mr Putin with “Russia” – the Russian people.
The only way to win this conflict was to get the truth to the Russian people – namely that Mr Putin (not the West) was their real enemy.
Instead there has been, for years now, endless hatred directed at “Russia”, the Russian people, even demands that Russia be broken up – this campaign of hate has played-into-the-hands of Mr Putin.
The people behind the campaign of hate are NOT on the payroll of Mr Putin – but he must be delighted with their work.
Perhaps I am wrong, perhaps there was no way the Russian people could be turned against Mr Putin – but without that, defeat in Ukraine was certain – the only way to prevent defeat in the war in Ukraine was to turn the Russian people against Mr Putin, and that policy was not even tried – instead endless hate was directed at “the Russians”.
We did not even try to turn the Russian people against Mr Putin – the policy was not tried. And Ukraine is going to pay the price for that failure.
What is now likely to happen is that “Trump” (i.e. President Trump) will be blamed.
The people really responsible for the defeat will never blame themselves – they will claim that there could have been victory in Ukraine, even that Russia could have been broken up (as if Vladivostok and so on were not “really” Russian) – if only it had not been for “Trump”.
In reality America (in California only 20% of births are now white Americans, it used to be over 90%, and in Texas it is now 30% – again it used to be 90%) is more likely to break up (or just die) than Russia is. Although the establishment hated “Trump” has more appeal to Hispanic voters than any other Republican has ever had – if America has a future (a big “if”) it will be due to President Trump.
If the Russian people survive it will be no thanks to Mr Putin – whose record on fertility policy, like his record on everything else, is PATHETIC.
Mr Putin will claim the credit for “victory” in Ukraine – even though every military plan and decision he has made has been WRONG.
And ordinary people will gain NOTHING from this “victory”.
Mr Putin does not care about the Russian people – he is best seen as a gangster, an Al Capone type.
But nor does he have a deep ideological hatred of his own people – which the establishment in the United States (remember Head of the Joint Chiefs General “white rage” Milley – who regarded it as his first duty to side with the People’s Republic of China Dictatorship against “Trump” – and also regarded “white people” as the main threat to “Progressive values”) and the United Kingdom – most certainly the United Kingdom – clearly do (hence their policies over decades).
Al Capone Putin who would cut your throat for sixpence – or an “educated” leadership who are ideologically committed to the destruction of their own people (and they are ideologically committed to the destruction of their own people – under such slogans as “Diversity” and “Progress”).
What a choice – indeed it is no choice at all.
Where is “reopen nominations”?
Anyone who thinks that the merit Ivan the Terrible defeated the Tatars and gained control of the Volga, is a fool.
Ivan was a drunken, and diseased, maniac – it was the soldats who won the war, in spite of him (not because of him).
Russkys are about 80% of the citizens of Russia and they are sadly used to useless leaders – but if only they could be convinced that there is a better alternative to that treacherous nonentity in the Kremlin.
And convinced that we are NOT their enemies – indeed, as Mr Navalny pointed out, that Mr Putin has sold-them-out to their real enemies – the People’s Republic of China and the followers of Islam.
Except the two are entirely consistent and not contradictory.
Apart from that it’s bang on…
No, Mearsheimer is nothing if not inconsistent, have you actually been following that clown over the years?
David Levi
He predicted that Ukraine was being led down the primrose path to destruction years ago…so yes I have been following him…and he was right. So was Kennan.
Wolfowitz, Brzezinski and Blinken got it catastrophically wrong. There is now a China- Russia axis, exactly what the West always sought to prevent. The West will pay dearly for it.
Incidentally Trump’s attempts to detach Russia from China will fail..too little, too late.
I don’t expect this comment to remain up very long…lol.
Pretty sure Russia is not even close to actually destroying Ukraine. They can’t even hold Kupiansk, which they invited the Press to come visit in November (instead Zelensky took a selfie there on December 12).
Mearshimer wrote a paper in 1993 advocating Ukraine retain nuclear weapons it inherited after the collapse of the USSR as being the best, perhaps only feasible, deterrence against a Russian attack. Ukraine chose to follow other advice and here we are.
When people accuse Mearshimer of being a Kremlin agent or words to that effect, they always seem to omit reference to this paper. Why so?
While there may be another opportunity to do this in the distant future, I agree with this. It may have been feasible,albeit difficult, in the first Trump term but the ‘Russia Russia Russia’ shenanigans by Democrats made it effectively impossible. For it to happen now would require either huge American concessions that seem unlikely or a 180 turn in Chinese foreign policy that scares Russia which also seems very unlikely occuring soon.
Many in the West believe China will invade Russia to “recover” territory lost in the 19th century. It won’t. It will do precisely what the West does ie get control by debt (Africa) and influence (corruption…as in Ukraine). How much they majority of Russians care about the east is uncertain.
What is certain is that the Neocons have “baked in” huge future problems for “the West”, probably eventually resulting in US isolationism. And who could blame it?
Again doubt that this will remain for too long…lol…Perry must be on holiday…
martin: 1993 was Mearsheimer 1.0 back when he was somewhat consistent with his own views. Mearsheimer 2.0 is the current rouble financed version in which Russia has been demoted to a reactive product of machinations in Foggy Bottom & Langley
Provide some actual evidence for Russian financing please.
I think there’s some wish fulfilment that China will attack the Russian Far East. This reminds me of those in 1941 thinking the Japanese would strike Far East Russia rather than the USA. China’s military build up looks much more focused on Taiwan and repel the US navy and airforce. The recent PLA exercises were launching rockets close to the coast of Taiwan and not near Vladivostok.
Well I’m amazed some of my posts remain on here…how odd!
I don’t actually believe China will “have a go” at Taiwan…far too risky. Technically an invasion would be exceptionally difficult…even fir China. A simple attack and destruction achieves nothing except, well…destruction.
What China wants is Taiwan back in the PRC sphere, with it intact. It is patient, it will wait and as the USA “over reaches” Taiwan will gradually be “recovered”. Of course by then the PRC will be very different…even more mercantilist, and prosperous but not very democratic. But of course Hong Kong never was until the idiot Patten tried it…it was, however, immensely successful.
Well Mearsheimer version 1 must surely think China doing that at some point when Russia is weakened is more or less inevitable 😀
There is none that I know of, except his selective inconsistency with his own previous theories about how the world works. Not damning but certainly indicative.
You can stop there, next please….
If inconsistency alone is proof someone is on a foreign payroll somewhere I could provide a book full of names.
Over a long enough timeframe it could happen. Just seems very unlikely to happen anytime soon. PRC seem far more focused countering US and reclaiming Taiwan. As mentioned recent PLA exercises were targeted at Taiwan,not Russia, and PLA still regularly does exercises with Russia, one is about to start just now.
If Mearsheimer acts as a Putin propagandist without getting paid, he is even more insane than if he gets paid for it.
Presently Russian media is pushing outrage about a bar that got hit on New Years Eve – women and children killed.
I do not doubt that civilians were killed – but it is very unlikely that the Ukrainians targeted a civilian place on purpose (why waste munitions killing civilians?) – Russian drones and missiles have often hit the wrong targets, killing civilians, but (of course) RT does not mention that.
It is clear from watching Russian media (“I do – so you do not have to”) that the Kremlin has no interest what-so-ever in a peace deal – indeed they regard the “Nazi” Zelensky (a Jewish Nazi? does RT now know that a central tenet of National Socialism was hatred of Jews?) as illegitimate – and would not recognize anything he signed anyway.
This war is going to be fought to the finish – and Mr Putin aims to win by the end of winter, before spring.
Russia probably will “win” – gaining land that is of no value to the Russian people (Mr Putin himself admitted that – many years ago), at the cast, over four years, of vast numbers of young men who should have been husbands and father – had they been allowed to be husbands and fathers Russia would have been saved, now it is possible that, in the long term, Russia will die.
Mr Putin is a traitor to Russia, a traitor to the Motherland.
Only 2?
If USA(or West) would have a military operation with +100000 deaths what would be Mearsheimers opinion?