This is a very interesting video by David Kirichenko…
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Is Ukraine changing the face of war?September 21st, 2025 |
 16 comments to Is Ukraine changing the face of war?Leave a Reply |
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Young Jack Tar is a White Ensign sparky who knows more of such things than his Old Duffer Dad, having spent time professionally in Poland liaising with “interesting people”. He says the Ukrainians are on the leading edge technically, but more importantly have such institutionalised operational knowledge re. using drones at scale they’re on a whole different level to us now.
Drones are being used by both sides – at first Ukraine did seem to have a technological edge, but that may not be true any more. As for the soldiers – at first the Russian soldiers were incompetent, both in drone use and (perhaps more importantly) in the accuracy of their artillery. However, that may have changed over the last three and half years. Historically, since at least the defeat of the Tartars, Russian has won wars largely by large amounts of mobile artillery – but that depends on the artillery being reasonably (reasonably) accurate. Battlefield drones (often fiber optic controlled – so they can not be jammed) is part of that now.
As for the general war – on Saturday morning France 24 television said that the Ukrainian “counter offensive” was going well and they had recaptured places the Russians had taken during this summer, on Sunday morning the same television station (France 24) said that the Russians (not the Ukrainians) were on the advance and had been for some time – totally contradicting its report of the previous day.
What is really happening? Who is really winning the war? I do not know – as I am hundreds of miles away from the war.
I would like the Ukrainians to win the war (partly because Mr Putin’s “RT” makes it very clear, every day, that it would like people like me, of my ethnic ancestry, to be exterminated), but I have seen no clear evidence that the Ukrainians are winning the war.
As the young man says in the video says himself – “Putin thinks he is winning”.
As for economic problems in Russia – these most certainly exist in Russia (although labour shortages are better than unemployment), but economic difficulties in Britain and Europe also most certainly exist, and may (possibly) turn out to be worse.
The gentleman talks about long range missiles to attack Russian factories – this has been done for a very long time, for example the destruction of the Russian oil pipelines in the Baltic (whoever did that), attacks on Russian oil refineries have also been policy (by Ukraine and allied forces) for a very long time.
If this was scaled up – to attacks that would really threaten the Russian economy, Mr Putin might (or might not) go for a general mobilization – total war.
As for the historic claims about Russia – claiming it is “based on a lie” and so on, the British government did NOT use to support that line of argument, not even in the Crimean War of the 1850s.
But it is certainly true that Mr Putin has, for a very long time, been in alliance with the enemies of the West, both the People’s Republic of China, and other regimes such as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Venezuela, for a very long time.
In the 19th century such people as Gladstone and (especially) John Bright were opposed to the anti Russian policy followed by Britain and France – and I also disagree with this 19th century policy, in the context of-that-time.
But Russia was not ruled by Mr Putin in the 19th century – and Mr Putin is very clearly allied with the enemies of the West (in so far as “the West” can still be considered to exist outside the United States) and had been for a very long time indeed.
A sharp distinction must be drawn between the Russian people (Russia is not “an Empire” and fantasies about breaking up Russia are insane – Vladivostok is as far from Moscow as you can get, and it is RUSSIAN – far more Russian than, for example, Los Angeles is American) and the regime of Mr Putin.
There are indeed ethnic minorities in Russia – but it is nothing like as ethnically divided as the United States (indeed even in the largest population State, California, “Anglos” may well be heading towards being a minority – and California is far from alone in this), or, these days, Britain.
Moscow and Saint Petersburg are far more Russian than London or Birmingham are English.
The war is against Mr Putin and his regime – and the way to win the war is to turn the Russian people against Mr Putin and his regime, it must be made very clear that the West is NOT plotting against the Russian people.
It is Mr Putin, and-his-regime, who is the enemy of the Russian people – it is he who has got so many Russians killed.
And the low Russian fertility rate is also a damning indictment of 25 years of the rule of Mr Putin – and the various hangers-on around him.
Lastly I would remind libertarians and conservatives of the true nature of the Putin regime.
It is a regime of mass abortion and contraception (Catholic conservatives please note) – hence the decline in population, but it is also a regime where most people in the cities and towns live in high rise blocks of flats – with heat and light, and everything else, controlled by the regime. There is no need for this, as Russia has vast amounts of land (which makes the war in Ukraine even more absurd – Russia has no need of anything that is in Ukraine, it has vast amounts of all these things already), people are kept in blocks of flats (I remind people that Mr Putin has been in power for 25 years – he could have changed this, if he wanted to), because this makes it easy for the regime to CONTROL the people.
Mr Putin has also been a vicious enemy of Russian rural areas (he is a city boy) – Russian villages and small towns are in a terrible state, as a direct result of his everything-for-the-cities policy.
That sounds very much like United Nations “Agenda 2030” – remember Mr Putin was once very close to the “Davos” crowd (the World Economic Forum – with their totalitarian agenda, their support of a Corporate State with individuals and families reduced to de facto serfdom). With their “rewilding”, “15 minute cities” and so on.
Money in Mr Putin’s Russia is NOT gold – it is fiat, hence the inflation. Russia no more has honest money than Britain or America do.
As for Freedom of Speech and the Right to Keep and Bear Arms – Mr Putin’s regime has more in common with the regime in Britain than it does with, say, Texas.
Drones matter but the big take-home from this war is, “Do NOT give-up your nukes”
NickM – you have a good point Sir.
If Ukraine had kept nuclear weapons Mr Putin would have been very unlikely to have invaded.
The Baltic States are part of NATO – and so are under the NATO nuclear deterrent.
Mr Putin should take this fact to heart.
Even if you are down in some “nuclear proof” shelter – do you really want to stay there for the rest of your life, or emerge into a Russia whose cities are radioactive ruins?
And if Mr Putin is mad enough to say “yes” to this – then it is time for a Russian (yes a Russian) to put a bullet in the back of Mr Putin’s head – as an act of self defense on behalf of the Russian people.
I should have typed “gas pipelines” not “oil pipelines”.
Old Jack Tar – I hope Young Jack Tar gets back home alive and uninjured. Good fortune to him.
Poland is quite safe, more so that Pompey 😀
You clearly haven’t been staying current. Ukraine has been attacking Russian POL infrastructure hard for months now, leading to widespread Russian civilian fuel shortages.
Old Jack Tar – yes Poland is a good place to be. Divided politically – but so are most places.
Hopefully your son will not be going into Ukraine.
On the attacks on Russian infrastructure, oil refineries, power grids, and so on- yes I am very much much aware of them, and I mentioned them in my comment.
My point was that such attacks are not yet on such a scale to warrant a full scale Russian response – either a full mobilization (Mr Putin has chosen lots of soldiers from various places, rather than throw more Russians into the meat grinder), or a thermonuclear response.
As for the battlefield situation – both sides are, of course, lying (one must expect that in war). So any assessment contains a large element of guess work.
My guess, and it is just a guess, is that the Russian forces are advancing.
I am reminded of the “Winter War” against Finland.
At first the Red Army, as it then was, was incredibly incompetent – and the Finns, by heroic resistance, managed to kill vast numbers of their enemies.
Then something odd happened – Red Army soldiers started to break off from their rigid formation and start to take the fight to Finns.
When some (some – most were not captured, that is the point) Red Army soldiers were captured they were asked about their orders to do this – they laughed and said they were not ordered to do it, indeed would be SHOT or sent to the camps (Death Camps) for breaking orders – shot or sent to Death Camps by-the-Soviet government.
“Then why are you doing this?” asked the baffled Finns.
“We are Russians” (note the captured men did not say “Soviets”) “Russia is a great country – it will not be defeated by a small country like Finland” – they felt defeat would be embarrassing, and so breached orders (a death sentence – a death sentence from their own side) to take the fight to the Finns.
Russians would find defeat by Ukraine embarrassing – and so will do highly risky things (such as crawl up pipelines, for a long distance, to get behind Ukrainian positions) to win the war.
In which case Mr Putin may not need to order a full mobilization – still less use thermonuclear weapons.
I remember seeing a Finnish film (I can not remember the title) about the later stages of the Winter War – with groups of Red Army soldiers popping up everywhere (totally unlike their original rigid formations).
Not very nice Red Army soldiers – for example they are shown killing or raping (or both) Finnish nurses (which, I am told, is historically accurate) – but rather effective, especially given their very large numbers.
Remember raping and mutilating are not embarrassing (it is war – such things happen in war) – defeat IS embarrassing. Better to get killed than to come home in shame and drink yourself to death.
This was learned from Mongols and the Tartars (and before all of them – from the pagan Vikings) long ago.
These days there are lot of Tartars, and other such Muslims – from both inside, and outside (Central Asian Republics – which are their own countries these days), Russia, in the Russian Army.
Hence the endless Jew-baiting on Russian television – including English language Russian television.
That President Zelensky is of Jewish heritage is a stroke of good fortune – from the point of view of Mr Putin’s propagandists.
About the “Tartars”: it is my understanding that there were never such people.
What happened is that the Mongols annihilated the Tatars (NOTE: no R), killing all men and assimilating* women & children.
It is also my understanding that the appellation of ‘Tartar’ came into being by Europeans confused by the similarity of ‘Tatar’ to the mythological Tartar.
As for me, the word ‘tartar’ also reminds me of how long since the last tooth cleaning.
* The assimilation was made possible by polygamy, and the accepting attitude of steppe women to being conquered: Chinggis Khan’s own mother was kidnapped by his father, and she carried out her duties of wife & mother with extraordinary talent (in spite of being the 2nd wife); even taking up the role of family leader when Temujin’s dad was assassinated.
Even Temujin’s Tatar wife proved to be a good wife to him; and he proved to be a good husband to her.
Given he’s in the Royal Navy, I would hope not 😉
A few weeks ago I read a report from some oil analysis who calculated 20% of Russian’s refining capacity was offline (which will change day by day as the Russians repair & the Ukrainians keep striking: which of those two things can be sustained more effectively being the decisive issue). I’ve since read in the press civilian petrol rationing was in force in several areas of Russia, so I’d say Ukraine’s strategic campaign is certainly having a meaningful impact.
Snorri – my apologies for adding an extra “r” to Tatar.
Old Jack Tar – Odessa is a vital port for Ukraine, as a Navy man you understand that much of the imports and exports of Ukraine go by sea.
As for 20% of Russian refining capacity being off line – that is higher than I thought, but you may be correct.
Let us hope that Mr Putin “only” responds in a conventional manner and world wide thermonuclear war can be avoided.
I would again hope that a Russian (it would have to be a Russian) would put a bullet into the back of Mr Putin’s head, if he tries to opt for thermonuclear war.
The key Russian mistake at the start of the war – was the personal mistake of Mr Putin.
It was Mr Putin, personally, who decided on the “Operation Market Garden” (see the film “A Bridge Too Far”) style plan of attacking Kiev from the north (something that pro Kremlin propagandists now pretend never happened) – airborne troops landed near Kiev were destroyed by Ukrainian forces who both outnumbered and outgunned then, and Russian armour advancing from the north (from Belarus – do not forget that Belarus backed this from the start) were destroyed by attacks (attacks from above – and from the flanks) along that long road south – it became the “road of death”.
President Trump was exactly WRONG when he suggested that Russian forces failed because they tried to go “across country” whereas if they had gone down the road, they could have been in Kiev “in four hours”.
They DID go down the road south – and that is why they were massacred, they were trying to get to the airborne troops who had been landed near Kiev – who were also massacred.
The plan was the personal work of Mr Putin – a man with no military experience what-so-ever, and, as mentioned above, seems very similar to the British “Operation Market Garden” (really two operations) during World War II – just on a much larger scale, and with vastly WORSE results.
Many of the best soldiers in the Russian Army were killed at the start of the war – and the person responsible for that was Mr Putin, it-was-his-plan.
It should be studied, in every military college, as an example of what NOT to do.
And now Trump has come around to “our” way of seeing things. I expected him to do it sooner, given his talent as a negotiator; but better late than never.
Mind you, we must always take Trump seriously, but not literally. When he says that Ukraine can retake all of its territory, he might not mean it literally; but he means it seriously.
Snorri – good point Sir.
Some Russian sources are claiming 26% of Russian oil refining capacity is now off-line