Russian drones over Poland

Perry de Havilland (Prague) · Military affairs

Where does this end up?

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September 10th, 2025 |

6 comments to Russian drones over Poland

• bobby b

  September 10, 2025 at 8:09 pm

  Seems early. Lots of false flag accusations out there. I can’t see what Putin would hope to achieve doing this – beyond a public FY to the West, which seems unlikely – but I can see a fake being useful to someone.

• Subotai Bahadur

  September 10, 2025 at 8:37 pm

  I don’t know about “false flag” operations. From the admittedly incomplete information I have encountered; 17 or so attack [not recon] Russian drones swung into Polish airspace so that they could come at the Ukraine from an unexpected direction. 7 of them were shot down and the wrecks landed on Polish territory and have been recovered. It is theoretically possible that more were hit but did not crash in Poland. Since they have the wreckage, they have positive ID on the mark, model, and maker of the drones. And they are Russian. I tend to rule out a mistake, but your mileage may vary.

  The possibility of the FY you mentioned is definitely there, but so is it being a Russian test of the effectiveness of Polish defenses.

  Subotai Bahadur

• bobby b

  September 10, 2025 at 8:57 pm

  ” . . . 17 or so attack [not recon] Russian drones swung into Polish airspace so that they could come at the Ukraine from an unexpected direction.”

  Lots of people want the public conclusion to be “Russia is attacking Poland!” It’s going to be read that way all over the US.

  The false-flag op idea attenuates that accusation.

  The “they tried to hit Ukraine through misdirection over Polish airspace” possibility likewise fails to support the “attack on Poland” idea. If true, a remarkably stupid idea, but still not a casus belli against Poland. (OK, maybe technically it is, but it’s still not a direct attack on Poland.)

  So many people want to declare WW3 in order to prod an anti-Putin response. I have no love for the guy, I just think we should figure this out first.

  We have been tricked into too many fights.

• Perry de Havilland (Prague)

  September 10, 2025 at 9:41 pm

  Lots of false flag accusations out there.

  Many of the drone seem to have intruded via Belarus, so hard to see how this could be a “false flag”

• NickM

  September 10, 2025 at 11:25 pm

  If Russia didn’t have nukes they’d be just a bust flush.

  The big question, the only question, is if Putin is going to go down in a nuclear firestorm or quit?

  The problem is he can’t quit can he? He’s not going to be able to retire to his dacha and write his memoirs is he? That is not how Russia usually “works”.

  When Khrushchev was removed from power he remarked that his greatest achievement was leaving power alive. He made a good point because that is very unusual in Russia.

  I dunno what we (NATO) must do. If we have the capacity we must do everything to fuck the Russian administration over with plausible deniability. We cannot move militarily because they have nukes and Putin has no “pension fund”. It is death or glory for him.

  If this was a Sid Meier game… Which it isn’t… I’d take Kaliningrad hostage and do everything in my power to screw the Russian economy to the “eating babies” level. Hey, they’ve got history on that!

  My brother-in-law is a Pole and he has re-enlisted in the Polish Army. He is also a huge fan of JRRT. Almost more than me and that is saying something.

  Yeah, I know this is not JRRT but rather Jackson, Boyens and Walsh but it is still brilliant…

  Sons of Gondor! Of Rohan! My brothers. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!

  Any “civilization” worth that word is almost by definition one worth fighting for. It is worth killing for (I’m thinking General Patton here) and maybe even dying for. Though obviously that is to be avoided if possible.

  I thought this all ended when the Berlin Wall was broached. It never ends does it?

• Snorri Godhi

  September 10, 2025 at 11:40 pm

  Maybe i should be more worried about this than i am; but right now i am more worried about India’s reaction to the Trump tariffs.

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