Ho ho ho that's very funny! (It really is....)

The problem is that the big media companies of today *define* themselves in ways that will prevent them from surviving.

Newspapers think of themselves as gatekeepers, as portals. The cruft that makes them uncompetitive (regurgitated wire reports, and weather reports, and sports coverage, uncompetitive classified ads, and Marmaduke and Beatle Bailey) they consider to be part of their very identity. Which makes death and change identical from their perspective.

The number of big media companies that successfully transform into future internet media companies will likely be small. Instead we will likely see a lot of big media companies dying, and brand new enterprises sprouting up.

There is nothing unusual about any of this. It is a transition that we have seen many times in the past.

Cities used to have several newspapers in various languages, and other periodicals that came out weekly or monthly. Many of these have faded as radio and TV took over everyday news and feature reporting, as well as entertainment.

My favorite example is "Movietone News", the newsreels that were ubiquitous in theaters for decades. Most ordinary people got their "picture" news when they went to the movies on Saturday and saw all the latest big deals, disasters, war news, "funniest home video" type stuff, etc., in the newsreels.

Radio was also, at one time, the most significant media outlet that the average person had access to, and it was extremely powerful as an all purpose provider of news, entertainment, music, and general information.

Newspapers are dying because their economic base has withered, and younger people simply don't read them the way previous generations did every day.

TV has fragmented into dozens of cable and satellite providers, and hundreds of channels. The "big three" that I grew up with are now minority participants in most areas.

This has happened repeatedly in dozens of other industries, and nothing can stop it .

The media are not going to disappear, only change formats and methods.

There are billions of people out in the wide, wide world who are just now entering the mid-20th century of electronics, media, and communications. They want all the information, news, and entertainment that we take for granted.

In many cases, there are powerful forces who wish to prevent that from happening, either for political or religious reasons. They will all fail in the long term.

As Mr Universe says, "You can't stop the signal."

Miranda

Neither of the cited links seems to include the actual quote, so it's difficult to discern the context and any elaboration.

Tom: the quote is from a seminar called Newsrewired, on online journalism and the future of journalism, at City University Thursday. Some of Hadfield's other quotes from the sesssion he took part in has been quoted widely by UK media press, like MediaGuardian and PaidContent, since. This was just one of the things I jotted down from his talk and conveyed it to Perry over dinner yesterday evening. I've been travelling all day today, still is. I might get back to some of the things Hadfield said in a blog post later, but MediaGuardian has more on this

Watching the video I was struck again by the realisation that has crept over me, over the years, and that is that the world is run by conmen.
It's only a matter of time before they nobble the internet, I suppose?

I'm afraid it is, John.

The paid media will become viable on the web when I can read a 'free' article and send the source ten cents because it was worth that to me. Paying several dollars a month for access beforehand locks up too much money for too few sources.

We really do need some sort of micro-payment service and I don't understand what's holding one up.

Sadly, all the "new" media companies will meet the same end as the "old' media companies, only more quickly, unless someone comes up with a model which can generate revenue in an environment where "everything's free -- or ought to be".

Kim, many of the old media companies will not be replaced by new media companies, they will simply die out and nothing will replace them as the ecological niche has withered up and does not need to be filled at all.

It might be as difficult for a society of small voluntary and niche-business media operators to finance things like heavy-hitting investigative networks, as it has been for the cartel of old-style behemoths to refrain from autodigesting them in favour of Processed Nooz Food production lines. But that still doesn't leave much of a gap that isn't a gap already.

As for the possibilities of really effective micropayments models, be careful what you wish for. You think the War on Cash is bad now? Wait till the clunky pound in your pocket can be profitably replaced by the spying Super-Oystercard in your wallet.

I'm not holding my breath for truly anonymous e-cash, either.

I'd add that the most successful media companies have the dumbest audiences.