Tuesday
In New York 23 Hoffman is going up against both the Democrat and the Republican machines (Dede S. having endorsed the Democrat and working closely with him on get-out-the-vote) so if he wins it will be a big upset in a district that supported Barack Obama.
Actually the New York Conservative party may evolve (from an unimportant group that just follows in the wake of the Republicans) into something like the "Barnburner" (later Van Buren) faction of the New York Democrats of the early 19th century.
No doubt the Republicans will reach out to Hoffman if he wins and say "Caucus with us" - but he would be sensible (again if he wins) to keep them at arms length and avoid going back into bed with people who stabbed him the back.
The Virginia race looks won for the Republicans (famous-last-words) a big defeat not just for Barack Obama - but also for the Washington Post (which ran smear ariticles on the Republican almost every day for the last month or so).
New Jersey.
My prediction is the same as I have been saying for a long time - Christie will win on the day, but Goldman Sachs will remain Governor.
One indication already - 3000 absentee ballots were checked and it was found that the signatures did not match. But, no doubt, they will be counted anyway (and this is the tip of the iceberg - there are more absentee ballots this year than there were in the Presidential election year).
In short, as so often, in New Jersey the fix is in.
I hope I am proved wrong on that one - but it would take a get-out-the-vote effort by the Republicans on a scale they have not managed in New Jersey since 1993 (when there were simply so many people voting Republican that their votes outnumbered the fake votes).
There has been a salient comment about NJ with respect to "absentee voting"
The Polls may be off by the "Margin of Fraud"
As switch from margin of error (2.25%)
Posted by RRS at November 3, 2009 03:03 PM
"in the wake of the Republicans" ? Freudian schlep?
"the fix is in" Borat Hobama is a Chicago fixer. The old term was "ward healer". Then, what politico isn't?
The criminal class of statesmanship.
New Jersey? Are they all voting from prison, or what?
All ballots are absentee ballots.
Posted by cjf at November 3, 2009 06:58 PM
Clearly it doesn't matter how people vote. What matters is how the people that count the votes vote.
Posted by Brian, follower of Deornoth at November 3, 2009 08:16 PM
Not if enough people vote - it just means you have to win by a bigger margin in order to beat the fix.
Posted by Paul Marks at November 3, 2009 08:55 PM
No doubt the Republicans will reach out to Hoffman if he wins and say "Caucus with us" -
Or not. The GOP establishment wants nothing to do with those like Hoffman, Palin, etc. There is a reason we call them all "Republicrats".
Posted by Tim at November 4, 2009 01:45 AM
Christie indeed got enough people out to beat the fix - impressive.
Now for the hard part - cutting taxes and government spending.
Posted by Paul Marks at November 4, 2009 07:00 PM
