The North Koreans trained Mugabe's secret police. This is going to be very, very bad. The US will not become involved for a variety of domestic political reasons, as well as the obvious international whoopdedoo that would result if we did.

All the worst of the statist political lunacy of mid-20th century collectivist thinking is coming to a (poisoned) fruition in Africa. I hope God helps them, because no one else will.

To do anything substantive would require a reconsideration of all the assumptions underlying the socialist/tribalist theories that were incorporated into these failed states when they were founded. Not going to happen.

Neither the political or intellectual classes have that kind of integrity or courage.

At this point, there's no peaceful transfer of power possible. People would be howling for blood, and Mad Bob knows that. So the only thing left is violence.

It can only end with Mugabe's death or flight from the country. The most likely scenario is that Mugabe crushes his politcal opposition and rules with an iron fist until he dies of natural causes.

I had not heard that Mugabe's secret police were trained by the North Koreans. Do you have any links for that?

If such training was not done by the NoK's, it definitely was by the Chinese, who have supplied weaponry back to Ian Smith's time.

The Chinese may forego Taiwan to latch onto the former breadbasket of sub-Saharan Africa.

An interesting article here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/22/wzim22.xml

I don't think North Korea trained the CIO - that was a British-trained outfit. Perhaps you are thinking of the notorious 5th Brigade that carried out the infamous Matabeleland massacres in the early 80's and was trained by the North Koreans.

While the Chinese figure in modern Zimbabwe (Mugabe recently bought $200m worth of K8 ground attack aircraft from them - a poor imitation of the BAe Hawk trainer), they certainly were never involved previously. During the bush war ZAPU/ZIPRA was predominantly Soviet/East German backed while Mugabe's ZANU/ZANLA was all North Korean backed. Interesting that Mugabe can afford $200m for aircraft, yet has just defaulted on a payment to South Africa for 40,000 tons of maize, so they have now stopped all grain shipments to Zimbabwe.

Whilst everyone hopes this will gather strength, I fear that active support for any resistance will be limited for fear of their lives. Ditto Iran, Saudi etc

Julian---thank you for the precise info.

I remember hearing Peter Tatchell on Radio 4 a couple of years ago announcing that there was already a conspiracy afoot within the Zimbabwean establishment to get rid of Mugabe, supposedly along the lines of the 1974 Portuguese coup, I mean revolution, against the Caetano dictatorship. Given all the atrocious things that have gone on since, perhaps it's time this supposed conspiracy did something? Or perhaps it was just Tatchell's wishful thinking - I mean, this is the guy who says Malcolm X was gay.

The US will not become involved for a variety of domestic political reasons, as well as the obvious international whoopdedoo that would result if we did.

Added to the fact that, apart from anything else, the US does not have any spare troops at the moment. Iraq is a huge commitment, and will continue to be for the forseeable future.

Also, as Zim is landlocked, like Afghanistan, a military operation would need the co-operation of a friendly African state. It's hard to see that happening. Mugabe's pretty safe and the bastard knows it.

Assassination is a reasonably likely possibility. ZANU-PF is a barren shell of a political entity - it would implode without Mugabe.

I cannot see any reason why the United States would become militarily involved in Zimbabwe. Mugabe's departure is hardly an issue of great national import for the USA.