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Ukraine peace agreement? Oh good, a peace deal has been hammered out for the Ukraine.
The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February. The deal also includes weapon withdrawals and prisoner exchanges, but key issues remain to be settled.
… and in other news that is no doubt unrelated…
Around 50 tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles crossed overnight into east Ukraine from Russia via Izvaryne border crossing into the separatist Luhansk region, a Kiev military spokesman said on Thursday.
Thank goodness we have Putin’s word for it that Russia is not sending troops and large quantities of equipment into the Ukraine as part of a barely disguised invasion, for a moment then I thought there might be vastly less to this ‘deal’ than met the eye.
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It amazes me how many people parrot the neo-Soviet propagandaas though everything Putin’s media say about the situation is the unvarnished truth.
Also unmentioned is the 40 Billion bribe from France and Germany to sweeten the deal.
Of course, that will be pocketed and then negotiations on yet unresolved issues will resume. By all means necessary.
It does not surprise me Ted – it fits with my view of just how sick the world is.
As for the deal and the bribe.
Pass the sick bag.
I actually hope that Mr Putin breaks the deal (we will know soon enough), as it would bring this out into the open.
The Ukrainian forces are going to pull back on Sunday.
True Mr Putin can just do nothing – after all his people will retain control of the “People’s Republics” anyway (the free elections are not likely).
But he could decide to attack – why not?
What are the mighty legions of the E.U. going to do if Mr Putin does decide to attack?
Nothing.
Still fresh from this squalid episode, the E.U. leaders are off to talk to Putin’s people in Greece.
The gang I know so well from the television show I was told does not matter – they were regular guests on it for years.
The idea that the Greek government is some sort of independent entity is absurd.
I don’t think he will attack. The lessons from history are clear enough, and whatever else he may be I don’t believe he is stupid.
He will want to keep fighting through “seperatist” proxies while he spins his yarns to the west for as long as possible.
Whoops, I agree that he won’t attack, but if I’m reading you correctly you are arguing that if he did, the West would actually show some spine. I’m afraid I can’t agree with that prediction.
But using proxies should be perfectly effective so he will continue, I’m sure. He’ll pretend to be committed to peace and we’ll nod our heads in assent. He’ll lie to us, we’ll lie to him and then we’ll compliment each other on our lies.
A few thoughts, well, questions really:
Why only France and Germany around the table? Why not the UK and, at least, the US? Why did the French and Germans agree to this? What are the French and German imprimaturs worth?
Why are the Germans, especially, being so pathetic?
What can NATO do? (This is an entirely serious question, by the way). What weapons systems and in whose hands? And how quickly?
Why didn’t Putin just take what he wanted immediately after Maidan? He could have said: “Blah, blah, blah, major disruption… threats to the Russian population… we are coming to protect them.”
Russia wants control over East Ukraine, looks like a done deal
Sanctions lifted, ?
Offered I would hazard a guess.
You can only hold onto territory where you have the support of most of the local population.
i.e. they regards themselves as ethnically Russian.
In the present situation the SE quarter of Ukraine is just that.
Whether its enough though depends on how large a buffer zone the Russian federation had in mind in the first place.
However the concern in Russia for the plight of the ethnic Russian speakers in East Ukraine is genuine.
The EU learned a hard lesson this morning.
Diplomacy without armies is like music without instruments.
a peace deal has been hammered out
Link fixed.
There have been countless accusations of Russia sending troops and equipment to the Novorussian forces.
There has never been any proof offered.
Patrick, in response (albeit not an answer) to your second question, it pleases me that the US was not at the table. I view this as a regional issue, to be handled by the local players (i.e., Europe). Your problem; you deal with it. We are demonstrating admirable restraint in staying out.
As to NATO, I don’t know what weapons systems, etc., it has, but I’m pretty certain that I know what it will do: nothing. Ukraine is not a NATO member so there is no treaty obligation to ride to its aid. And even if there were, I still think NATO would do nothing. NATO is a toothless tiger, fit only for “humanitarian” missions in Africa (as long as there is no actual fighting involved), not because it lacks the hardware but because it lacks the stomach. It will not challenge Putin whatever he does (short of an overt invasion of Germany or some such action).
There has been copious evidence. Just use Google and ignore anything by Russia Today. Moreover it take wilful blindness not to see how well the “rebels” are equipped and how much logistic support they have, complete with versions of Russian tanks not in the Ukrainian inventory. I hope you are being paid for your comment because at least that means you are not an idiot, you are just working.
Everything I’ve seen are obvious fakes. Perhaps you have seen some useful proof, could you link it?
Start here, then keep doing your own research in the unlikely event you are not a paid Putin troll. Expect to get kicked as Samizdata will not help spread the Kremlin’s Maskirovka campaign.
Well, tell us about the obvious fakes. By the way, what would you regard as proof?
You have to be joking. That’s just funny.
Oh obvious is a shoulder patch, supposedly Russian commando, that is so obviously shopped it’s moving around. As well I knew who that was already. The shots of various weapons from historical images abound. There is nothing anywhere I have seen that is in any way convincing, and I have looked hard every day for months.
Perhaps you can.
I do understand that divergent views cannot be tolerated … especially in a place as fragile as this one.
Divergent views can’t be tolerated in a place as fragile as Russia.
Did you actually read the whole thing? So yeah either an idiot or a paid Kremlin troll, probably the later. Either way fuck off. Not a request.
From what I heard on the radio earlier …. the Merkans essentially said “if you don’t get back to the table Angie, Francie … we’ll send a pile of obselete military kit and just enough new, effective stuff to annoy the Ivans” – cue scampering around in Brussels etc….
Try this on for size. My wife translates from Russian (amongst other languages). She follows Russia. She knows the Russians are playing Les Buggeurs Risible. Carson is extracting the Michael at an industrial scale.
The right place to have held this conference is Munich.
Almost certainly a paid troll. He stays on message and does not get into side arguments the way a freelance troll likes to do.
In wonder what we should call this deal between Germany and Russia that seeks to divide Ukraine? I heard Molotov-Ribbentrop was taken.
Easy: because it is in the personal interests of Merkel and Hollande to do so. I wrote a lot about this here, lamenting the fact that today’s politicians – and also, more close to home, today’s managerial classes – tend to act purely in their own interests (i.e. maintaining or attaining status, wealth, power, and privilege). If anyone else benefits from their actions, it is only by chance that their interests have coincided in this instance.
As I said in my post:
If you ever see a flagrant breach of standards or policy in an oil company, nine times out of ten it will be because a manager is doing what suits him personally, right then.
Our modern political classes, and management classes (often from the same bolt of cloth) are utterly devoid of principles, they don’t even know what they are let alone are able to hold onto one. I have found that once you start with the assumption that politicians and corporate managers are acting purely to feather their own nests, you don’t go far wrong in obtaining a clear picture.
As for Carson, he’s probably one of the few who honestly believes Russian soldiers in East Ukraine are “volunteers” and that Russian soldiers are allowed to take rifles, grenades, and heavy support weaponry with them on holiday. Then again, only the other day I was at Sharm al-Sheikh and a T72 battle tank rumbled by. “I’m from Krasnoyarsk” the driver hollered as he casually flattened a row of parked cars “and I had an extra baggage allowance with Aeroflot. Might as well use it, eh comrade! Now let’s see if I can take out that dive boat with my main cannon.”
Almost 97 years later, bar 3 weeks, it is as if the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk has been subject to a mocking reversal.
Well, Oilfield Expat, Strange things happen in Sharm el Sheik nowadays.
The fact that both the UK and the US were excluded from the talks indicates that NATO is a dead letter, and control of western Europe now passes to Germany and its ally France. This is probably a good thing. Obama’s advisers are pushing schemes that would inexorably lead to a general European war, which would likely go nuclear fairly quickly.
One has to hope the agreement will actually be implemented. A non-aligned, federalized Ukraine with economic relations with the EU and Russia. would be a very good thing.
Now Merkel has to try to prevent the collapse of the EU and the euro themselves, which is very possible.
Sharm al-Sheikh? Please tell me more, as I am less than 3 hours-drive away.
Agreed. The Ukrainians would get access to EU-manufactured goods and be able to sell their own produce within the EU. Great!
What’s Russia’s role, again?
Alisa,
Ah, so it was you in that tank! I did detect a sniff of Israeli tank-driving expertise as you aimed the cannon while turning a corner, it did have me wondering where a pure Russian would have learned that…
Russia has guaranteed that Ukraine will never ever be ‘non-aligned’ again. Such is the antipathy to Russia now that even the more moderate Ukrainians I know (two of whom are Ukrainianised ethnic Russians) are talking it terms of a future of multi-generational resistance to Moscow.
I would have learned that in Russia, Oilfield Expat 🙂 Now can we get back to you telling me about that tank?
It may be 3 hours from where you live to Sharm, Alisa, but it’s a lot slower in a tank coming the other way!
Hat tip to PeterT for the obscure comment of the day.
And yet, I still have no idea what either of them is talking about. Oh well, happens all the time.
Alisa, Steve Strange, a Welsh 1980s New Romantic icon, died yesterday in Sharm el Sheik.
Here are a couple of his group’s (Visage) tracks.
Moon over Moscow
The Horseman
Thanks, Ed 🙂 (Boy, do I hate 80s music…)
Sorry, if I’d know you, it would be RasPUTIN by Boney M, which in 1939 would have been Germany’s least predictable 1970s export.
I rather like 80’s music 😛
Well, someone has to like it, I guess 🙂
Why? *g*
Because it’s a dirty job 😛