Starting on 1st August, 1944, the Polish Home Army resistance rose against Nazi Germany in Warsaw, mounting what was by far the largest single military effort by a European resistance movement in World War 2. The advancing Soviet Red Army halted and waited for the German Army to completely crush Polish resistance and did not lift a finger to help, even though it had air force assets less than five minutes flight time away from where the Poles fought and died, light infantry weapons and a few captured heavy weapons against tanks and artillery. The Soviets quite literally watched and did nothing, refusing requests by the Western Allies to use Soviet airbases to provide assistance to the Poles. More than two hundred long distance supply drops were conducted by the RAF in spite of Soviet opposition, but were completely inadequate for the needs of the defenders.
However as the Polish Home Army was loyal to the Polish government-in-exile in London, the Soviets saw it as an obstacle to their intentions to turn Poland into a communist puppet state, and were delighted to have their former ally but now bitter enemy Nazi Germany eliminate this politically inconvenient group.
Starting on 16th September, 2014, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) began defending the town of Kobani from the Salafist forces of the Islamic State, light infantry weapons and a few captured heavy weapons, against an enemy who have heavy weapons and copious munitions that they acquired in Iraq, when the Sunni elements of the Iraqi Army either changed sides or simply abandoned their depots and ran away. Also early on in the Syrian Civil War, what was to become the Islamic State gained material support as part of the resistance movement against the Syrian Government, from Turkey under its politically Islamist leader Tayyip Erdogan.
The largely Kurdish defenders of Kobani in Syria are associated with Turkish Kurdish nationalists of the Marxist PKK, and thus the Turkish army are quite literally watching from across the border from within small arms range, as Kobani’s defenders are being crushed in bitter street fighting by the numerically superior and better armed Islamic State.
The Islamist government of Turkey is really not that concerned by the Islamic State, and so they are quite happy to see them crush the politically inconvenient and politically secular Kurdish nationalists in Kobani. Turkey has refused requests for NATO aircraft to use Turkish airbases, and the mostly American strikes have failed to prevent the Islamic State from forcing their way into the town at the time this article is being written.
The parallels are striking.
Chickenhawk and Marxistic puke that Obummer is, it seems hard to see what soviet-type advantage he could gain from allowing the Kurds to be destroyed. Unless endless 1984-style war in the mid-east is what the Federal Tyranny really want for their own domestic-oppression purposes.
Those IS in the town cannot be struck from the air but the US has enough air power to turn a 5-10 mile ring around the town into something resembling the floor of Hell. They could save the Kurds if they wished even without turk airbases.
Sorry Ecks but the villain here isn’t the US, its Turkey. Sure, Obama could do more, but the US is doing more than anyone else to help even if that fact does not fit your narrative.
Parapundit (http://www.parapundit.com) suggests that a severe shortage of UAV’s is preventing proper targeting and reducing the number of possible air strikes.
The big difference of course is that in the 1944 case the UK/US could do nothing about the situation. Assuming that Obama understands the situation sufficiently (a big ‘if’ given how dimwitted he seems) they could just screw the Turks over. Threatening to recognise an independent Kurdistan might do the trick – possibly this is credible as I had understood that the main opposition to the idea (except for the Turks) would have been Sunni Iraqis; the Shia have their own oil reserves and who cares what Iran thinks.
The only way I can see this being resolved is by a non-islamist Syrian government taking on and winning the war against Isis (leaving the fight in Iraq to the Iraqis). This is unlikely to be led by Assad – he is beyond redemption and the Turks would be opposed. Unfortunately the alternative would be to first destroy the Assad government, then put together another government. How this could be achieved without outside troops is beyond me. The best option would probably be turning Syria into a Turkish protectorate for a few years. Very unlikely to happen.
Worst. Idea. Ever. Moreover all that means is the Turks end up in Assad’s role, as the one everyone else in Syria is shooting at.
I would not put that beyond them.
A good post.
Which is preferable – a Marxist Kurdish enclave or Islamist rule ?
From the humanitarian aspect – yes, one would like to help the Kurds. But from the political-ideological perspective – I don’t care.
As to the Kurds – living as they are in a crazy region, they should have been more accommodating to the Turks, more willing to compromise. They should have grasped better the reality of the power distribution in the region, and appreciated their weakness. Now they are reaping what they sowed when they embarked upon a terror campaign against Turkey in the past.
It is not that I support (or like, God forbid) the Turks, by no means. I am just saying that you have to be realistic.
I disagree. The only reason they still exist as a culturally homogenous group strong enough to give the region’s geo-strategic planners a cracking headache is because they were and are willing to embark upon ‘terror campaigns’ against those who would oppress them.
Where do my sympathies lie? With the Kurds, of course.
I would sooner ally with a Marxist than an Islamist. The Marxist stands some chance of being brought around.
I see it entirely the other way Jacob. My guess? The peace deal with the PKK is dead, kaput, over. I think it is the Turks who have been profoundly unrealistic.
And I agree with James, better a secular marxist than a salafist. One can be co-opted and the other cannot.
But in truth there is also one potential Kurdish winner here, and they are in Erbil.
What’s more, the justification for a strategic alliance with Turkey is steadily weakening, whilst the justification for a strategic alliance with the Kurds – an investment in the nascent Kurdish nation – is steadily growing.
Even the demographics are against the Turks, who are being outbred by the Kurds at an alarming rate.
Here’s the plain truth. When the West threw their lot in with Turkey, it was because Turkey was the nation of Ataturk. If Turkey ceases to be the nation of Ataturk, and becomes exactly what Ataturk sought to avoid, then of course its allies will abandon it in favour of people the West can work with.
I suspect that Obama wants anyone else to do anything else so that he can stand on the sidelines and strike postures. Holding onto power without exercising responsibility requires ‘masterly inactivity’.
I have a fantasy: Israeli sends troops to help Kurds. A fantasy, I know, but a nice one.
The Kobani story is more complicated because the US is running interdiction airstrikes but not close air support strikes in Syria because of a lack of JTAC assets on the ground there (Iraq has both CAS and Interdiction strikes going). This can be fixed a number of ways.
You can get real time communications going between Kobani and Erbil where there are JTAC assets on the ground who would be able to coordinate and minimize CAS fratricide casualties.
You can get Kobani radios and communicate directly with the pilots. Depending on how good the information is, fratricide will be, or not be, an issue.
The difference between the two types of strikes is laid out in two official US military documents JP 3-09.3 and JP 3-03 which describe the two operations and how they are different.
What is so nice about it, Trofim? It would be the stupidest thing ever heard of.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Israel could help some Muslims and be recognised for it? But I did say fantasy.
Trofim, I have been surprised how many Iraqi Kurds express pro-Israeli sentiments. It is usually some admiring remark along the line of “Yeah gotta love those Israelis, they don’t take any shit from the fucking Arabs!”
Yes but that is not going to happen. First all the western players are uneasy about increasing the small number of ‘boots on the ground’ in Iraq/South Kurdistan, and there is no way in hell anyone wants to put people into Syria, embedded with the Marxist YPG. The YPG may be as brave as lions and lionesses, but they come with considerable political and cultural baggage, unlike the altogether more simpatico and western-friendly Peshmerga.
Second, unless the Turks allow use of their territory (and they will not, as the Rojava Kurds getting massacred by the Islamic State is a feature of their policy, not a bug), getting some FACs into Kobani is a non-trivial matter as the YPG area is shrinking. Also the risk of getting a NATO FAC captured and beheaded on YouTube is also a non-trivial risk. Ain’t going to happen.
Israel did help the Kurds in the past, and has been recognized for it – by the Kurds.
I have a 1970’s publication written while the peanut farmer was in charge of the USA, one of the articles in it is on the Kurds (4th largest ethnic group in the region) being shafted by the US while they were fighting,,,Iraq.
Ill try and post an excerpt if people like, is a case of “nothing changes”…
As regards Warsaw: it’s not clear that the Soviets could have intervened effectively. Their spearhead units reached the area at that time; but anyone who’s done enough military simulation gaming discovers the difference between “can get there” and “can get there with significant force”.
When the Soviets approached Warsaw at the end of July, it was the end of a rapid 800-km advance; infantry, artillery, and supplies were lagging far behind. The Germans put in some sharp counterattacks and knocked the Soviets back. The Anglo-American sweep across France went only half the distance and had similar difficulties.
Having said that – by the end of August the Soviets had brought their support troops forward and could have pressed forward; they did not, waiting till December.
Also, I once worked with a Polish immigrant who told me that he had known veterans of the First Polish Army (Polish troops in Soviet Army service). These veterans told him they could hear the fighting in Warsaw, and were fired on by NKVD troops when they tried to cross the Vistula.
Seems to be an academic point, Rich – let’s say the Soviets couldn’t have intervened effectively. It seems clear from what you say in the rest of your post that even if they were in a position to do so, they still wouldn’t have.
They had air bases within 5 mins flight time of Warsaw and they few somewhere between zero and none operational sorties over Warsaw. This was 100% intentional. Likewise they could have let the RAF bases supply lifts out of Soviet airfields. They did not. In fact they ARRESTED a UK military liaison mission.
This sort of thing, demonstrators blocking a motorway on the England/Wales border as a protest against IS, will hardly help people care about events in the Middle East.
Watch out for the White Shroud.