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And whilst attention is focused on the horror in the Middle East…

And whilst attention is focused on the horror in the Middle East…does that later day Mussolini (Russian edition) and gay icon Vladimir Putin invade the Ukraine?

Probably. The real question being, where is the Stop Line?

21 comments to And whilst attention is focused on the horror in the Middle East…

  • Mr Ed

    Russia sends aid so it can invade, we invade so we can send aid.

  • And who will tell him Thus Far, And No Farther?

  • Mr Ed

    The Sanity Inspector
    August 11, 2014 at 6:06 pm
    And who will tell him Thus Far, And No Farther?

    The Mayor of Lisbon?

  • What is totally amusing in all this is that Obama has practiced (mostly) a non-interventionist reduced DoD American foreign policy. Of course it is not totally his fault. It is what a significant fraction of the American people wanted.

    I wonder if a certain faction of the libertarians will learn their lesson?

    ‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’ — Lord Melbourne —

  • Not sure why this should have anything to do with the USA, is the lesson I have learned :-) Western and Central Europe should easily be able to face down Putin’s Russia alone if they tried a little harder.

    Note: apologies to ‘Steel Ferret’, just redo the comment as editing it caused it to be eaten ;-)

  • Perry de Havilland (London)
    August 11, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    Obama – early in his first term denied Ukraine an ABM system saying it would be too provocative to the Russians. So off the bat Putin neutered the Americans. That gave him a free hand with the Euros.

    For the last 100 years that is always the way it starts. America says, “None of our business” and people start to get ideas. It is so bad that Hillary has chimed in.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/world/middleeast/attacking-obama-policy-hillary-clinton-exposes-different-worldviews.html?_r=0

    Sad day when the women have more balls than the men.

    ==

    My #2 son is returning from a spell in Moscow (he works there as an adjunct to the US Embassy).

    We will talk politics when he visits (I think in about a week – he has a wedding to go to and a gaming convention) and if he has anything interesting to say that I can repeat in public I’ll do a post and leave a link at Samizdata.

    We are trying to get him to stay here.

  • And since I’m on about Hillary this, though OT, is pertinent:

    Hillary Clinton Supports IDF Control of Judea, Samaria
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/183909#.U-koKWPc21o

  • Jacob

    “Sad day when the women have more balls than the men.” [About Hillary]

    “Hillary Clinton Supports IDF Control of Judea, Samaria”

    Hey, It starts to smell like an election is coming in the US. Hillary “has balls” and “supports IDF”?! – empty election rhetoric.
    There is no record of her implementing any of that while she served for 4 years as Obama’s SecState. No record of any tangible achievement.

  • Jacob

    Perry, you favored non-intervention in the Arab world (“let them kill each other). (Only killing Christians merits intervention, against ISIS, you said).

    Now, are you advocating intervention in the Ukraine?

    “The real question being, where is the Stop Line?” False.
    The real question is WHO determines the stop line and enforces it? France? Italy? Britain? Spain?.

  • Perry, you favored non-intervention in the Arab world (“let them kill each other).

    Indeed, but it was specifically Syria I was talking about really.

    (Only killing Christians merits intervention, against ISIS, you said).

    No, I would also support intervention to support Lebanon or Saudi Arabia if ISIS attacked them and they could not cope.

    Now, are you advocating intervention in the Ukraine?

    Am I? Really? I am all for selling them weapon, that much is true.

    “The real question being, where is the Stop Line?” False.

    On the contrary, that is only thing that matters. And I imagine that line will look like the blue bit here. And it will be what makes European NATO rearm.

    The real question is WHO determines the stop line and enforces it? France? Italy? Britain? Spain?.

    Indeed. It is a NATO issue and that means add Romania and Poland to that list, particularly the later.

  • Bruce Hoult

    M. Simon … I recently started working for the Moscow division of a large electronics company. At the moment I’m working remotely from New Zealand, but they’re likely to ask me to move at some point next year (and getting a work visa is starting already).

    It will be interesting to see what the political situation is then.

    It is a kind of work I like a lot, and few companies are doing it. So it may be a difficult decision…

  • Nick (Natural Genius) Gray

    Ever since Czar Alexander made it all the way to Paris, that has been the benchmark for any Russian Autocrat with real ambition!
    I worry, though, at all those Russian rich people who live in London. Are they the vanguard of a new fifth column? Or are they simply going to buy up Britain, and not need to invade?

  • Jacob

    Give Putin the blue areas (in the map you linked to) and he will be content (peace in our time).
    The problem is Ukraine wants all of it – nothing for Putin (maybe except Crimea, which he already took).

    I think there is no danger, at this moment, of Putin going for the yellow (Ukrainian) areas too.

    Is Ukraine a member of NATO ? (I don’t think so). Is NATO obliged to defend Ukraine’s current borders (blue AND yellow ares) ?
    No, on both counts.

    In my opinion, Putin can have the whole of it (of Ukraine), it does not matter which thugs rule there (Russian of Ukrainian), there is no compelling reason for the West to intervene.

    Besides, nobody is asking the West, and the West is totally impotent, so any intervention will be just empty talk and absurd sanctions theater.

  • Is Ukraine a member of NATO ? (I don’t think so). Is NATO obliged to defend Ukraine’s current borders (blue AND yellow ares) ?
    No, on both counts.

    Indeed, which is why I have kept saying NATO cannot get involved directly and your notion I have argued for direct intervention are imaginary. But sell, hell, GIVE the Ukrainians weapons and help train them by all means.

    And Russia will only go for Kiev if they really want an intractable insurgency that lasts pretty much forever. Russia is vastly weaker than you seem to think and unlike the west, it cannot quickly rearm if it needs to without going broke.

    it does not matter which thugs rule there (Russian of Ukrainian)

    It matters enormously. With Russian backed thugs, they will be there as long as there is a Russia to back them. With local thugs, they will eventually fall and be replaced by people less thuggish. A great many Ukrainians want a better life.

  • Mr Ed

    Is Ukraine a member of NATO ? (I don’t think so). Is NATO obliged to defend Ukraine’s current borders (blue AND yellow ares) ?
    No, on both counts.

    Well there are the Budapest Memoranda, all rather wishy-washy and something that the Ukrainians may regret getting into. This was in the context of the Ukraine getting rid of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for this sort of thing.

  • Bruce Hoult

    I could have sworn I heard about a security guarantee from NATO to Ukraine in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes?

    Worthless?

  • Worthless, yes, since the Ukraine can hardly get the nukes back after the west fails to guarantee their security.
    Unless Putin re-installs them, of course.

  • Paul Marks

    But Perry – the “Libertarian” Left (and the state-must-own-the-railways Peter Hitchens right) have “proved” that Putin is the victim of evil Anglo-American Corporate Capitalist Big Business (no doubt controlled by the Jews).

    Are you unaware of this vital fact?

  • No idea Paul, I never read them so I have to take your word for it. You read them so we don’t have to :-D

  • Jacob

    From the Budapest memorandum:
    “…United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, …. if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;”

    Go it ?
    In case Ukraine is threatened with nuclear weapons [and only then], the good souls will “seek IMMEDIATE UN security council action…”
    It doesn’t get more absurd than that…

  • William O. B'Livion

    The line is probably the border of France.

    The western border.

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