Comments on: A short video about the Alpha Graphs

By: Laird

Laird — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:54:04 +0000

No argument with that, Richard; in fact, it's precisely the point I was making. The Laffer Curve is an idealized representation of a concept, not a predictive tool. And the same is true with Brian's Alpha Graph.

By: Richard Thomas

Richard Thomas — Sun, 10 Feb 2013 15:36:50 +0000

The Laffer curve is actually a case in point. Whilst the concept is generally correct, zero taxation = no revenue, 100% taxation = no revenue with some kind of shape in between, that’s as far as it goes. Yet people (notably on our side) are quick to use it to back “lower taxes means more revenue”. Which is totally unfounded as we do not know the true shape of the curve or where we are on it. It also tends to lead to the implication that maximized revenues is some kind of desirable outcome and puts the focus on taxation when (in my opinion) the issue is spending

By: Tedd

Tedd — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 15:59:59 +0000

I think Richard has a point in that, to be really useful as an argument, there need to be real-world examples that can be graphed that way, from actual data. (And, ideally, a dearth of counterexamples.) Unlike the Laffer curve, which is more metaphor than math, I think that might actually be possible with this idea.

On the other hand, with a bit of stylizing it would make a fetching logo for a libertarian party.

By: Laird

Laird — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:30:09 +0000

Richard, that is why, way back at the beginning of this thread, I asked if there is some way of quantifying it. But even without that I agree with Brian that his graph does represent reality. The key word being "represent". He's not claiming that it's a mathematically accurate description of any actual governmental program or private action (that would require a different curve for every specific instance); it's merely a stylized representation of general trends. In this respect it's like other stylized illustrative graphs such as the Laffer curve: it doesn't help you determine the precise point at which taxation is optimal (in terms of maximizing governmental revenues), it merely illustrates the concept that there is a point of diminishing returns after which tax rate increases decrease revenue. And Brian's Alpha Graph illustrates the possibly counter-intuitive idea that government programs may start out well but eventually turn to sh*t, whereas private actions behave in the opposite way. A very useful intellectual concept, but not a mathematical model.

By: Brian Micklethwait

Brian Micklethwait — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 16:19:03 +0000

But in my opinion they do represent reality.

By: Richard Thomas

Richard Thomas — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 16:06:36 +0000

Brian, since the graphs are based on your opinion, they do not represent reality yet that is the implied intention of placing something onto a graph. By doing so, your graph becomes the new reality yet may actually be very incorrect or even doing your cause a disservice. The tendency will be to build on the graph to create castles in the sky, perhaps with even more graphs. But what if they’re incorrect? What if those lines are not smooth hockey sticks but rather exponential at first with a discontinuity in the second part? What if they are actually straight but it is only perception that gives them that initial shape?

I am not sure if you are familiar with this cartoon http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/purity.png but use of graphs in this way is way, way <———-that way.

Have an opinion, pick some information which informs that opinion and graph it.

By: Snorri Godhi

Snorri Godhi — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 23:10:31 +0000

It is an interesting coincidence that just a few days ago, after watching Gangster Squad, i reflected that anarcho-capitalism is unlikely to catch on: at the beginning it would probably be so bloody that most people would welcome a return to a monopoly of violence. Now i have a useful tag for the concept.

Except that i am not sure alpha is the right word: there is a branch of the Greek alpha that goes down and then up, but the other branch goes up, then down … then up again! That’s not what government services usually do.

By: Epic Rant Paul « Samizdata

Epic Rant Paul « Samizdata — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 14:46:39 +0000

[...] A short video about the Alpha Graphs [...]

By: Brian Micklethwait (London)

Brian Micklethwait (London) — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 01:01:48 +0000

Richard Thomas

These graphs illustrate my opinions about the contrasting benefits, over time, of state action compared to free markets. I invite agreement. I draw the graphs because I believe these opinions to be (a) true and (b) valuable to explain how the world works and does not work. Waving my arms about graphically draws attention to these opinions.

Does my observation, to take just one example, that public housing in twentieth century Britain started off doing quite a lot of good and not a lot of harm, and ended up doing very little good and a lot of harm, amount to “data”? Perhaps not. But I think that’s what happened, based upon, you know, half a century of reading, observation, etc. (See also: NHS.) Similar stories about how markets start out crazy but later sort themselves out and then become ever more superb can also be told, in a way that is perhaps similarly lacking in “data”. I like the personal computer story because I have witnessed the entire story so far, and because I have been active in this market as a computer buyer and user. The graphs help me tell those stories, and make them more memorable and more likely to be remembered, because more likely to be noticed.

I am indeed trying to add weight to my opinions in these matters, because I think they deserve it. In common parlance, I think I am onto something important here.

I deny that I am “guilty” of anything.

By: Richard Thomas

Richard Thomas — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 00:29:31 +0000

Are these graphs based on any actual data? Or is the “hand waving” a good description of what you’re doing with them? It seems to me that you may be guilty of trying to add more weight to an opinion by producing “impressive looking graphics” without real basis, something we should really be frowning on around here.

By: Rich Rostrom

Rich Rostrom — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 23:52:08 +0000

This essay by Clay Shirky seems highly relevant. Shirky notes that in IT areas, distributed, fragmented evolvable solutions always start out as inferior to centrally designed solutions - and always end up displacing and obsoleting them.

"Centrally designed protocols start out strong and improve logarithmically. Evolvable protocols start out weak and improve exponentially. It's dinosaurs vs. mammals, and the mammals win every time."

By: Simon Gibbs

Simon Gibbs — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 17:25:03 +0000

I think it would be an Alpha with a very large tail as well. The “alpha” tag seems to best describe the start of the phenomenon. Hocky stick describes the value proposition(s) a lot better and it’s a shame the phrase is associated so strongly with scientific fraud. Perhaps the phrase’s associations should not stop you from using it?