I don’t think that the population of advanced countries will grow at below replacement levels in the long term. In developed countries we have pensions to look after us when we’re old and being childless or unmarried carrier little social stigma. The only reason to have children is personal ethics or personal satisfaction. For some couples it’s a choice between children or a more materially wealthy life. Understandably, many couples who don’t have much money choose the latter. As economic growth progresses that problem will diminish. Indeed, if populations fall it will diminish too because there will be more resources per person.

Some people are skeptical about that explanation because population growth rates are so high in developing countries and were so high in the past. Those are different issues though. In the past, in the developed world even, contraception was worse than it is now. The pill was a great step forward. In some places not having a family carried some social stigma. Often though being single carried little stigma, unlike today there was no possibility of having series of short relationships while staying single without a lot stigma. Some of these stigmas still apply in developing countries. Jonathan Pearce mentioned the other reasons. In developing countries there are mostly no good pension systems and no government welfare, so having children is useful because it means there’s are people there for you in old age. It’s also often necessary to have many children in order to have some that survive to adulthood.

On developing countries….

Jonathan Pearce writes “There maybe ‘local Malthusian traps’ but I would wager that this is because of things such as deficient technology, war, and other interferences in the productive processes of the market.”

I mostly agree with that. Globally prices of food have been gradually falling for a long time. The issue I’m pointing to is that locally people can only buy by trading what they can produce. If circumstance force them into traditional, un-mechanised agriculture then these issues are still relevant. I agree that this situation may be brought about by the corruption and stupidity of governments. But, in many places that’s not likely to change.

As you say people there will have lots of children no matter what I think. No matter what they think that means populations will rise until poverty limits them. I see no immediate solution to this problem. Though in the coming centuries as advanced technology spreads across the world the situation will improve.

And no problem over in Utah either.

Orthodox Jews are breeding at more than replacement levels and work hard and do well (unlike the “ultra orthodox” sects – but let us not “go there”).

And Mormons are (on average) the most wealthy group of Americans – and also the ones with the largest families.

Still if you have an anti-aging technology – I could certainly do with it.

Ironic that someone so antipathetic towards human beings to the point where he thinks them a plague on the planet has lived beyond the average age of his species. Perhaps guilt and liberal self-loathing are driving him.

Or maybe he’s just a batty and grump old bastard. Happens when you get old. All these young people, running around, enjoying themselves, CONSUMING STUFF.

Seriously, though, it is rare when the intense hatred toward humanity felt by the deep ecologists is allowed to surface. Most of he time it is kept hidden, and all we hear are the sweet, mushy bits about the poor baby seals or drowning polar bears or some such.

In fact, several of the foundational documents of deep ecology state that the population of humans should be reduced to about 100 million at most, and that it should be done fairly ruthlessly.

Something to keep in mind next time you’re saccharined with another plea for money to save the baby seals…

As for developing nations, I repeat the point that the presumed irrationality of having lots of kids is lost on those having them. As far as they are concerned, without a social safety net and given standards of healthcare, large families make sense.