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	<title>Comments on: The First World War almost starts 2 years early</title>
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	<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/</link>
	<description>A blog for people with a critically rational individualist perspective</description>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-268993</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 22:11:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-268993</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The British should have known how difficult it is to attack entrenched enemies - even if they had forgotten such things as the Battle of New Orleans.

After all the Boer War was only a few years before the First World War.

As for Sherman - a very good general.

But he was luckly that the the fool Jefferson Davis replaced the Confederate commander in the  (J.J.)with the demented Texan General Hood.

I have attacked Haig and co many times - but they never launched a frontal attack on prepared enemies when they were OUT NUMBERED.

That is exactly what Hood did - and more than once. He destroyed the Confederate armies in the West.

I do not care how brave he was - or how many limbs he had lost (or that he had to strapped to his horse).

The man was not a commander - he was just a fighter (that is not same thing).

In 1870 the French were SLOW - that is how the Germans were able to out flank them (to get round them - isolate them in pockets and so on).

The Germans would not have been able to do that to Robert E. Lee or Stonewall Jackson - or to Grant and Sherman.

It does not matter who has the most men on paper - it matters who gets to the VITAL PLACE first with the most men and materials.

&quot;But what is the vital place&quot; - it changes, a good General can work where it is, and when it changes they know the change.

Strange to think of the French as slow - but they were.

They were slow in 1940 also - the Germans just moved faster (as well as in a more organised way).

Of course the French were messed up by all the French civilian refugees on the roads - but sometimes you have to be prepared to push your own civilians off the roads (even if that means fireing above their heads).

War is not a game.

By the way the British were often slow - especially in the Second World War.

As the old military saying has it.....

&quot;Slow = dead&quot;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The British should have known how difficult it is to attack entrenched enemies &#8211; even if they had forgotten such things as the Battle of New Orleans.</p>
<p>After all the Boer War was only a few years before the First World War.</p>
<p>As for Sherman &#8211; a very good general.</p>
<p>But he was luckly that the the fool Jefferson Davis replaced the Confederate commander in the  (J.J.)with the demented Texan General Hood.</p>
<p>I have attacked Haig and co many times &#8211; but they never launched a frontal attack on prepared enemies when they were OUT NUMBERED.</p>
<p>That is exactly what Hood did &#8211; and more than once. He destroyed the Confederate armies in the West.</p>
<p>I do not care how brave he was &#8211; or how many limbs he had lost (or that he had to strapped to his horse).</p>
<p>The man was not a commander &#8211; he was just a fighter (that is not same thing).</p>
<p>In 1870 the French were SLOW &#8211; that is how the Germans were able to out flank them (to get round them &#8211; isolate them in pockets and so on).</p>
<p>The Germans would not have been able to do that to Robert E. Lee or Stonewall Jackson &#8211; or to Grant and Sherman.</p>
<p>It does not matter who has the most men on paper &#8211; it matters who gets to the VITAL PLACE first with the most men and materials.</p>
<p>&#8220;But what is the vital place&#8221; &#8211; it changes, a good General can work where it is, and when it changes they know the change.</p>
<p>Strange to think of the French as slow &#8211; but they were.</p>
<p>They were slow in 1940 also &#8211; the Germans just moved faster (as well as in a more organised way).</p>
<p>Of course the French were messed up by all the French civilian refugees on the roads &#8211; but sometimes you have to be prepared to push your own civilians off the roads (even if that means fireing above their heads).</p>
<p>War is not a game.</p>
<p>By the way the British were often slow &#8211; especially in the Second World War.</p>
<p>As the old military saying has it&#8230;..</p>
<p>&#8220;Slow = dead&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Stanley T</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-268656</link>
		<dc:creator>Stanley T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 01:07:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-268656</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We forget that most parties did really think it would be a short war, as the only precedents they had were the Prussian wars of 1866 (against Austria) and 1870 (against France), and the France-Savoy v Austria war of 1859, and generals always fight the last war. Of course with 20/20 hindsight the protracted and bloody American civil war was a better precedent, even ending in trench warfare outside Richmond. In those days, however, it was Europeans who were top of the pile and completely insular. Union general Sherman was an observer on the Prussian side in 1870 and was less than impressed.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We forget that most parties did really think it would be a short war, as the only precedents they had were the Prussian wars of 1866 (against Austria) and 1870 (against France), and the France-Savoy v Austria war of 1859, and generals always fight the last war. Of course with 20/20 hindsight the protracted and bloody American civil war was a better precedent, even ending in trench warfare outside Richmond. In those days, however, it was Europeans who were top of the pile and completely insular. Union general Sherman was an observer on the Prussian side in 1870 and was less than impressed.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-268294</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 22:40:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-268294</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why was General Conrad so (falsely) confident?

Perhaps he was an idiot.

Or perhaps he was a fatalist - who was just putting on a show of confidence that he did not really feel.

Many of the high people in the Hapsburg Empire believed it was doomed.

After all even the schools were teaching anti Hapsburg propaganda.

For example, that is where a young boy got his anti Hapsburg &quot;Pan German&quot; ideology from - from school.

The very schools that the government funded.

In many ways the entire West is a vast &quot;Austro-Hungarian&quot; Empire now.

Hopelessly dysfunctional (they had two million government employees - even exculding the military).

Wrapped in Red Tape (and other sorts of tape - the Empire actually had a coloured tape fileing system).

And subverted from within.

With the very teachers and university lecturers it paid for - seeking to destroy it.

Hard not be a fatalist in such an environment.

&quot;Let us fight - even though it is hopeless (indeed because it is hopeless)&quot; may be the sentiment.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why was General Conrad so (falsely) confident?</p>
<p>Perhaps he was an idiot.</p>
<p>Or perhaps he was a fatalist &#8211; who was just putting on a show of confidence that he did not really feel.</p>
<p>Many of the high people in the Hapsburg Empire believed it was doomed.</p>
<p>After all even the schools were teaching anti Hapsburg propaganda.</p>
<p>For example, that is where a young boy got his anti Hapsburg &#8220;Pan German&#8221; ideology from &#8211; from school.</p>
<p>The very schools that the government funded.</p>
<p>In many ways the entire West is a vast &#8220;Austro-Hungarian&#8221; Empire now.</p>
<p>Hopelessly dysfunctional (they had two million government employees &#8211; even exculding the military).</p>
<p>Wrapped in Red Tape (and other sorts of tape &#8211; the Empire actually had a coloured tape fileing system).</p>
<p>And subverted from within.</p>
<p>With the very teachers and university lecturers it paid for &#8211; seeking to destroy it.</p>
<p>Hard not be a fatalist in such an environment.</p>
<p>&#8220;Let us fight &#8211; even though it is hopeless (indeed because it is hopeless)&#8221; may be the sentiment.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-268292</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 22:33:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-268292</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ed - the German invasion of Belgium.

Britain (and before that England) has been fighting to prevent any major power controlling the low countries since the 16th century.

Whether it was Phillip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, or Willy II.

And the Germans had plans beyond this - for example Latin American and ..... (sorry but the academic and political elite in Germany had got some barking notions into their heads).

By the way - who said China has a monopoly?

If it had - it would not be buying up alternative sources of supply (of various raw materials).

The thing about China is not &quot;monopoly&quot; it is SIZE.

China is huge.

Nazi Germany in the 1930s was no better than China (worse in some ways) - but it was tiny, China is huge.

And British and American manufacturing are a total mess....


However, of course I would like to see rare earth mines reponed in the United States.

The signs for them could be made from the skins of EPA officials.


But that would not solve the basic problem.

The fiscal and monetary situation in the West is unsustainable  - and that is hitting the &quot;real economy&quot; (making things).

Things will get a lot worse before they get better.

If they get better.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ed &#8211; the German invasion of Belgium.</p>
<p>Britain (and before that England) has been fighting to prevent any major power controlling the low countries since the 16th century.</p>
<p>Whether it was Phillip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, or Willy II.</p>
<p>And the Germans had plans beyond this &#8211; for example Latin American and &#8230;.. (sorry but the academic and political elite in Germany had got some barking notions into their heads).</p>
<p>By the way &#8211; who said China has a monopoly?</p>
<p>If it had &#8211; it would not be buying up alternative sources of supply (of various raw materials).</p>
<p>The thing about China is not &#8220;monopoly&#8221; it is SIZE.</p>
<p>China is huge.</p>
<p>Nazi Germany in the 1930s was no better than China (worse in some ways) &#8211; but it was tiny, China is huge.</p>
<p>And British and American manufacturing are a total mess&#8230;.</p>
<p>However, of course I would like to see rare earth mines reponed in the United States.</p>
<p>The signs for them could be made from the skins of EPA officials.</p>
<p>But that would not solve the basic problem.</p>
<p>The fiscal and monetary situation in the West is unsustainable  &#8211; and that is hitting the &#8220;real economy&#8221; (making things).</p>
<p>Things will get a lot worse before they get better.</p>
<p>If they get better.</p>
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		<title>By: Ed Snack</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267912</link>
		<dc:creator>Ed Snack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 22:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267912</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just a couple of comments, first China has no even close to a monopoly on any rare materials, not even &quot;rare earths&quot;, they simply have a greater tolerance for dirty refining of those items for now.

Then on WW1, Britain was not obligated under its treaty with France to come to France&#039;s aid, it only promised to consult. In fact two members of Asquith&#039;s cabinet resigned over the decision to declare war on Germany. However military arrangements worked out by Sir Henry Wilson assumed that the army would dloy in France and there were comprehensive plans to do so.

On the actual outbreak, before declaring war and as a result of the assassination, Austria-Hungary gave Serbia an ultimatum, couched in such a way that it was assumed that no self-respecting government could possibly accept, that is it was intended as a step to war and not an alternative. To their surprise, the Serbians caved in and agreed. AH declared war anyway, their military high command was determined on war with Serbia. Oddly enough, having declared war with full German support, it took the AH army months to initiate an invasion of Serbia, and they were repulsed at first, so one is not sure why they were so keen and apparently confident.

The Schiefflin plan could certainly have succeeded and nearly did. It was weakened by troops being withdrawn as noted above, to reinforce the German left, but it was only Joffre&#039;s last minute realisation of the German plan that gave France the opportunity to at least attempt to forestall them. German supply was running low but they had enough to continue had they electe,d to do so rather than cut back prematurely as they did.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just a couple of comments, first China has no even close to a monopoly on any rare materials, not even &#8220;rare earths&#8221;, they simply have a greater tolerance for dirty refining of those items for now.</p>
<p>Then on WW1, Britain was not obligated under its treaty with France to come to France&#8217;s aid, it only promised to consult. In fact two members of Asquith&#8217;s cabinet resigned over the decision to declare war on Germany. However military arrangements worked out by Sir Henry Wilson assumed that the army would dloy in France and there were comprehensive plans to do so.</p>
<p>On the actual outbreak, before declaring war and as a result of the assassination, Austria-Hungary gave Serbia an ultimatum, couched in such a way that it was assumed that no self-respecting government could possibly accept, that is it was intended as a step to war and not an alternative. To their surprise, the Serbians caved in and agreed. AH declared war anyway, their military high command was determined on war with Serbia. Oddly enough, having declared war with full German support, it took the AH army months to initiate an invasion of Serbia, and they were repulsed at first, so one is not sure why they were so keen and apparently confident.</p>
<p>The Schiefflin plan could certainly have succeeded and nearly did. It was weakened by troops being withdrawn as noted above, to reinforce the German left, but it was only Joffre&#8217;s last minute realisation of the German plan that gave France the opportunity to at least attempt to forestall them. German supply was running low but they had enough to continue had they electe,d to do so rather than cut back prematurely as they did.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267689</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 10:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267689</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1914 had a nice sea coast on the Adriatic. The Italian or British fleets might be able to block then there - but Serbia?

What has the Adriatic got to with Serbia?

Unless, of course, the dream of the Black Hand is achieved - and Serbia not only takes over Montenegro, but also what we call Bosnia Herzegovina and Croatia and Slovenia (and Treste as well?).

However, only raving lunatic (such as Woodrow Wilson) could believe in such a &quot;Yugoslavia&quot; concept.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1914 had a nice sea coast on the Adriatic. The Italian or British fleets might be able to block then there &#8211; but Serbia?</p>
<p>What has the Adriatic got to with Serbia?</p>
<p>Unless, of course, the dream of the Black Hand is achieved &#8211; and Serbia not only takes over Montenegro, but also what we call Bosnia Herzegovina and Croatia and Slovenia (and Treste as well?).</p>
<p>However, only raving lunatic (such as Woodrow Wilson) could believe in such a &#8220;Yugoslavia&#8221; concept.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Green</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267621</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Green</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 01:49:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267621</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As someone whose main reference for the reasons for the War is Churchill&#039;s rather obviously jingoistic tome, thanks to everyone above for giving me new perspectives. The Otranto Straits, really? I had to look that up, and I can&#039;t even use that in Scrabble.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As someone whose main reference for the reasons for the War is Churchill&#8217;s rather obviously jingoistic tome, thanks to everyone above for giving me new perspectives. The Otranto Straits, really? I had to look that up, and I can&#8217;t even use that in Scrabble.</p>
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		<title>By: Midwesterner</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267607</link>
		<dc:creator>Midwesterner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 00:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267607</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That would be Russian ethnicity shared with the Serbs, not the A-H, of course.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That would be Russian ethnicity shared with the Serbs, not the A-H, of course.</p>
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		<title>By: Midwesterner</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267604</link>
		<dc:creator>Midwesterner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 00:20:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The A-H and the Italians believed, probably correctly, that Serbia would install a Russian naval base.  It does not take much in the way of a threat to make merchant shipping unviable.  Certainly the Russian navy based out of a Serbian Albania would have that capacity.  Russia was already spoiling for a confrontation with A-H for reasons I don&#039;t quite follow but apparently have to do with shared Slavic ethnicity or something.  I suspect their motivations may also fall under &quot;alternative explanations&quot;.

A similar situation to this is occurring today with India and China regarding the possibility of a Chinese naval base in Burma/Myanmar and the effort by the Chinese to become a strong force in the Indian Ocean.  India is quite reasonably concerned about what China intends to do with a strong navy in the Indian Ocean.  It is quite reasonable to ask &lt;em&gt;why&lt;/em&gt; China wants to project a strong navy into that sea.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The A-H and the Italians believed, probably correctly, that Serbia would install a Russian naval base.  It does not take much in the way of a threat to make merchant shipping unviable.  Certainly the Russian navy based out of a Serbian Albania would have that capacity.  Russia was already spoiling for a confrontation with A-H for reasons I don&#8217;t quite follow but apparently have to do with shared Slavic ethnicity or something.  I suspect their motivations may also fall under &#8220;alternative explanations&#8221;.</p>
<p>A similar situation to this is occurring today with India and China regarding the possibility of a Chinese naval base in Burma/Myanmar and the effort by the Chinese to become a strong force in the Indian Ocean.  India is quite reasonably concerned about what China intends to do with a strong navy in the Indian Ocean.  It is quite reasonable to ask <em>why</em> China wants to project a strong navy into that sea.</p>
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		<title>By: lucklucky</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267594</link>
		<dc:creator>lucklucky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 23:41:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267594</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well when you started talking about barges i thought you weren&#039;t aware of Austro Hungarian Ports in Adriatic since i doesn&#039;t make sense to talk about barges when there is also railways.

Neverthless how Serbs can block Otranto Strait with almost no ships? Not even the Allies, then already with Italians, could completely seal it and they put a complete barrage of permanent ships in it something that Serbia could never pull it off due to lack of resources.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well when you started talking about barges i thought you weren&#8217;t aware of Austro Hungarian Ports in Adriatic since i doesn&#8217;t make sense to talk about barges when there is also railways.</p>
<p>Neverthless how Serbs can block Otranto Strait with almost no ships? Not even the Allies, then already with Italians, could completely seal it and they put a complete barrage of permanent ships in it something that Serbia could never pull it off due to lack of resources.</p>
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		<title>By: Midwesterner</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267577</link>
		<dc:creator>Midwesterner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 21:53:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I did, lucklucky.  Empires need high volume reliable direct access to blue water for both naval and merchant shipping.  As best I can tell A-H&#039;s only blue water access was either overland through Italy, or an extremely uneconomical canal route through Germany or through the strait of Otranto.  I&#039;m not a history buff and certainly not knowledgeable on this topic, but I like to look at economic influences on decisions and I haven&#039;t heard anything that suggests a reliable alternative to safe passage for merchant shipping through the Otranto.  IIUC, all other routes to blue water are either through the Black Sea and at the mercy of Russia or overland through other hostile powers.  Am I wrong?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I did, lucklucky.  Empires need high volume reliable direct access to blue water for both naval and merchant shipping.  As best I can tell A-H&#8217;s only blue water access was either overland through Italy, or an extremely uneconomical canal route through Germany or through the strait of Otranto.  I&#8217;m not a history buff and certainly not knowledgeable on this topic, but I like to look at economic influences on decisions and I haven&#8217;t heard anything that suggests a reliable alternative to safe passage for merchant shipping through the Otranto.  IIUC, all other routes to blue water are either through the Black Sea and at the mercy of Russia or overland through other hostile powers.  Am I wrong?</p>
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		<title>By: lucklucky</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2012/12/the-first-world-war-almost-starts-2-years-early/#comment-267569</link>
		<dc:creator>lucklucky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 21:15:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.samizdata.net/?p=15842#comment-267569</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Midwestern check the Austro Hungarian Empire maps.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Midwestern check the Austro Hungarian Empire maps.</p>
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