We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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And this is a surprise? A Janes email newsletter this week reports that:
Israel retains strike option as IAEA strips away Iranian nuclear facade
Israel plans to give the international community time to draft and impose a series of tough sanctions against Iran in relation to its nuclear programme but has not ruled out the possibility of pre-emptive military action at a later date, Jane’s understands from senior government officials. Their comments followed the 8 November publication of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report expressing concern based on mounting evidence that Iran is pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, conducting research and tests that are only relevant for the design of a weapon
Next thing you know, they will discover that Israel has teeth enough to respond to an attack or threat… in kind.
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If Israel strikes – a lot of people will blame the Jews for “setting fire to the middle east”.
And if Israel does not strike – then the Iranian “hastener” regime (either directly or via some group such as the “Party of God” in Lebanon) will turn Tel Aviv into radioactive rubble – to the basic indifference of large numbers of people in the West. Who, indeed, will make produce excuses for the Iranian regime action (on the lines of the-Jews-had-it-coming).
By the way these people (who are far more numerious and influential than one might suppose) deny being antisemites.
Perhaps they even deny this to themselves.
Believe it or not, but there were some idiots around here recently protesting this “forthcoming” strike by Israel against Iran. Stop the world, I want to get off.
I think the Israel believe that they can “have” the Iranian airforce in a dog fight.
What have the Persians got ? Russian Migs? will they work ?
How good are the Iranian missiles ?
What have the Persians got ? Russian Migs? will they work ?
F-14s and Mig-29s, mostly. But more importantly, they don’t have the training and they don’t have the kind of coordinated air combat system the Israelis have. They would be relying on SAMs almost exclusively very early on.
Any attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran is going to prove very difficult. As opposed to the nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria attacked by Israel in the past, Iran’s facilities are hidden under the earth. Some the these hidden underground locations are said to be buried deep under highly populated areas such as beneath towns. Hitting and destroying these Morlocks in their subterranian nuclear facilities is going to be a real headache for the Israelis.
Maybe only Jerichos can do it.
But then what?
Anyway i am pessimistic. The genie is out of the bottle.
I think the only chance is to track down and kill every Mullah leader.
It can’t be a conventional campaign. It is need to be something completely different and that means to kill the top military and political caste in Iran.
It wasn’t that long ago, that I thought there was an obvious solution to Iran’s loudly-stated desire to have a civilian nuclear programme; it went along the lines of “here, Tehran, have a whole pile of Thorium and some detailed designs for the particle beam generator you need to get a decent fission rate out of it, now have our blessing, get on with it, and remember that we’re decent suppliers of high-precision engineering”, but it seems there’s still a means (albeit a very difficult one) of getting “interesting” Uranium out of there, admittedly only in very small quantities…
A special forces strike would be necessary, then. Artificial caverns are relatively easily destroyed once penetrated. Getting in wouldn’t be easy, though.