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	<title>Comments on: Confirming what many people believe about US debt</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/</link>
	<description>A blog for people with a critically rational individualist perspective</description>
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		<title>By: David Beatty</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219158</link>
		<dc:creator>David Beatty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:29:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sadly, Gordon, that is absolutely correct.  Apparently, as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dailypundit.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Bill Quick&lt;/a&gt; would put it, our elected officials believe in pixie dust and unicorn farts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sadly, Gordon, that is absolutely correct.  Apparently, as <a href="http://www.dailypundit.com" rel="nofollow">Bill Quick</a> would put it, our elected officials believe in pixie dust and unicorn farts.</p>
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		<title>By: Gordon</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219157</link>
		<dc:creator>Gordon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 16:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On France 24 this afternoon.
US has &quot;no credible plan to cut deficit&#039;&quot;.
Acording to the IMF apparently!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On France 24 this afternoon.<br />
US has &#8220;no credible plan to cut deficit&#8217;&#8221;.<br />
Acording to the IMF apparently!</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219156</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 13:44:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I like the bit about American policy being a combination of a drive for Swedish levels of government spending (and the gap between Sweden, which has the highest government spending in the world, and the United States is closing - especially if one includes ALL American government spending, the books are a lot more cooked in America than they are in Sweden) and Argentinian levels of interventionism.

And that is just the official policy - leaving out any hidden agenda that people like me think that Comrade Barack (and his Legion of allies) have.

Therefore (all the above being taken into account) anyone who risks their money on a real (as opposed to Federal Reserve generated) American recovery has only an insanity defence.

I am serious - lawyers may already be thinking of what cases can be brought against banks, investment advisers (and so on) that advised their customers to put their money in things like American Treasury Bonds. And State and local bonds.

After all the evidence is out in the open. At best there is going to be a de facto default (via inflation).

As for the stock market - it is no secret that it a Federal Reserve bubble.

The important words there are &quot;no secret&quot; - i.e. the evidence is out the open. So people who have advised their clients to invest in the American stock market or have done so with clients money (as funds do) are laying themselves open to furture legal action when the market crashes (which it will - sooner or later, and not much later).

For the record I REJECT this form of legal reasoning - I beleive you are still free to reject investment advice (pull your money out of fund, or whatever) and should not go screaming to a lawyer when things go wrong.

However, that is not how many American (and more and more nonAmerican) lawyers see things.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like the bit about American policy being a combination of a drive for Swedish levels of government spending (and the gap between Sweden, which has the highest government spending in the world, and the United States is closing &#8211; especially if one includes ALL American government spending, the books are a lot more cooked in America than they are in Sweden) and Argentinian levels of interventionism.</p>
<p>And that is just the official policy &#8211; leaving out any hidden agenda that people like me think that Comrade Barack (and his Legion of allies) have.</p>
<p>Therefore (all the above being taken into account) anyone who risks their money on a real (as opposed to Federal Reserve generated) American recovery has only an insanity defence.</p>
<p>I am serious &#8211; lawyers may already be thinking of what cases can be brought against banks, investment advisers (and so on) that advised their customers to put their money in things like American Treasury Bonds. And State and local bonds.</p>
<p>After all the evidence is out in the open. At best there is going to be a de facto default (via inflation).</p>
<p>As for the stock market &#8211; it is no secret that it a Federal Reserve bubble.</p>
<p>The important words there are &#8220;no secret&#8221; &#8211; i.e. the evidence is out the open. So people who have advised their clients to invest in the American stock market or have done so with clients money (as funds do) are laying themselves open to furture legal action when the market crashes (which it will &#8211; sooner or later, and not much later).</p>
<p>For the record I REJECT this form of legal reasoning &#8211; I beleive you are still free to reject investment advice (pull your money out of fund, or whatever) and should not go screaming to a lawyer when things go wrong.</p>
<p>However, that is not how many American (and more and more nonAmerican) lawyers see things.</p>
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		<title>By: Alisa</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219155</link>
		<dc:creator>Alisa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 10:21:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That Geithner fellow is precious, isn&#039;t he - &#039;Baghdad Bob&#039; anyone?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That Geithner fellow is precious, isn&#8217;t he &#8211; &#8216;Baghdad Bob&#8217; anyone?</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Lorrey</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219154</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Lorrey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 02:25:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Too bad these same ratings firms weren&#039;t as vigilant in rating toxic mortgage securities somewhere between piss and shite, then we wouldn&#039;t be as deep in the hole as we are now. When questioned about their shoddy ratings, they reply &quot;but our ratings are just &#039;opinions&#039;&quot;... oh really?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Too bad these same ratings firms weren&#8217;t as vigilant in rating toxic mortgage securities somewhere between piss and shite, then we wouldn&#8217;t be as deep in the hole as we are now. When questioned about their shoddy ratings, they reply &#8220;but our ratings are just &#8216;opinions&#8217;&#8221;&#8230; oh really?</p>
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		<title>By: Ted Schuerzinger</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219153</link>
		<dc:creator>Ted Schuerzinger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 23:38:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Laird:

I think Tim Geithner is actually sanguinary about the USA&#039;s credit rating.  Geither seems to think he can get blood from a turnip.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Laird:</p>
<p>I think Tim Geithner is actually sanguinary about the USA&#8217;s credit rating.  Geither seems to think he can get blood from a turnip.</p>
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		<title>By: Laird</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219152</link>
		<dc:creator>Laird</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 22:53:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s certainly comforting to know that Tim Geithner is &lt;a href=&quot;http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/156747-geithner-no-risk-that-us-loses-its-top-credit-rating&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;sanguine&lt;/a&gt; about the US retaining its AAA credit rating. He is so much more perceptive than I am; he can &lt;em&gt;still&lt;/em&gt; see the emperor&#039;s new clothes!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s certainly comforting to know that Tim Geithner is <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/156747-geithner-no-risk-that-us-loses-its-top-credit-rating" rel="nofollow">sanguine</a> about the US retaining its AAA credit rating. He is so much more perceptive than I am; he can <em>still</em> see the emperor&#8217;s new clothes!</p>
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		<title>By: Laird</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219151</link>
		<dc:creator>Laird</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 22:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s a &lt;em&gt;virtual&lt;/em&gt; trust fund, existing only in cyberspace (and Al Gore&#039;s fevered imagination).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a <em>virtual</em> trust fund, existing only in cyberspace (and Al Gore&#8217;s fevered imagination).</p>
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		<title>By: Dishman</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219150</link>
		<dc:creator>Dishman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 19:54:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219150</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jerry wrote:

&lt;i&gt;There NEVER WAS a trust fund.&lt;/i&gt;

Perhaps I should have written &quot;Alleged SSTF&quot; or &quot;Claimed SSTF&quot;.  I agree it does not actually exist, but the fraud is on the books.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jerry wrote:</p>
<p><i>There NEVER WAS a trust fund.</i></p>
<p>Perhaps I should have written &#8220;Alleged SSTF&#8221; or &#8220;Claimed SSTF&#8221;.  I agree it does not actually exist, but the fraud is on the books.</p>
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		<title>By: Cousin Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219149</link>
		<dc:creator>Cousin Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 17:37:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;This is S&amp;P firing a shot across the bows of US fiscal policy. What they are saying is &quot;We have every justification - sort your shit out now or we will actually have to knock you down a peg or two and then see how you react&quot;.&quot;

And the thing is, the rating agencies are often a lagging indicator -- they usually act only after the smart guys in the market have already moved their money.  I can make an argument that default, in a sense, has already occurred.  What else is QE?  It&#039;s the Fed printing money so it can &quot;buy&quot; Treasuries that were otherwise unsellable at a rate that the Treasury could afford.  If those $500M of Treasuries has been auctioned on the open market, the cost of that borrowing would have gone way up, and done even further damage to the budget.  (Instead, the Fed is playing a game of chicken with the bond market.  They&#039;re trying to see how much existing liability they can inflate away without the inflation-adjusted yield on existing bonds going negative.  One miscalculation, one little flinch, and it&#039;s going to look like Webber at Valencia.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;This is S&#038;P firing a shot across the bows of US fiscal policy. What they are saying is &#8220;We have every justification &#8211; sort your shit out now or we will actually have to knock you down a peg or two and then see how you react&#8221;.&#8221;</p>
<p>And the thing is, the rating agencies are often a lagging indicator &#8212; they usually act only after the smart guys in the market have already moved their money.  I can make an argument that default, in a sense, has already occurred.  What else is QE?  It&#8217;s the Fed printing money so it can &#8220;buy&#8221; Treasuries that were otherwise unsellable at a rate that the Treasury could afford.  If those $500M of Treasuries has been auctioned on the open market, the cost of that borrowing would have gone way up, and done even further damage to the budget.  (Instead, the Fed is playing a game of chicken with the bond market.  They&#8217;re trying to see how much existing liability they can inflate away without the inflation-adjusted yield on existing bonds going negative.  One miscalculation, one little flinch, and it&#8217;s going to look like Webber at Valencia.</p>
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		<title>By: David Beatty</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219148</link>
		<dc:creator>David Beatty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 17:01:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Exactly, Jerry.

There are hard times ahead in the United States.  I read &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.atlassociety.org/tni/u.s.-deficit-spending-government-debt&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; article last night from &quot;The New Individualist&quot;.  Quite frankly, it paints a very gloomy picture.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Exactly, Jerry.</p>
<p>There are hard times ahead in the United States.  I read <a href="http://www.atlassociety.org/tni/u.s.-deficit-spending-government-debt" rel="nofollow">this</a> article last night from &#8220;The New Individualist&#8221;.  Quite frankly, it paints a very gloomy picture.</p>
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		<title>By: Jerry</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2011/04/confirming-what/#comment-219147</link>
		<dc:creator>Jerry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 14:44:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=14003#comment-219147</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#039;Social Security Trust Fund&#039;

PLEASE STOP using that &#039;term&#039; in any fashion.

There IS NO trust fund.

There NEVER WAS a trust fund.

That damn systems was &#039;pay as you go&#039; FROM THE BEGINNING and once the income exceeded the liabilities ( starting on DAY ONE ) the crooked bastards COULD NOT keep their hands out of the money pot
and have used it to buy votes ever since. 
In addition, the bastards who passed this abomination, FDR et al, KNEW ( like many politicians know today ) that they would be long gone ( out of office if not 
dead ) before &#039;the bill came due&#039;.
  
Today, the ignoramuses in this country ( of which we have an over abundance of ) who have gotten their &#039;economic education&#039; from television REALLY think that the gov&#039;t has warehouses full of money ( trust fund etc. ) and it&#039;s all freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !    ]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8216;Social Security Trust Fund&#8217;</p>
<p>PLEASE STOP using that &#8216;term&#8217; in any fashion.</p>
<p>There IS NO trust fund.</p>
<p>There NEVER WAS a trust fund.</p>
<p>That damn systems was &#8216;pay as you go&#8217; FROM THE BEGINNING and once the income exceeded the liabilities ( starting on DAY ONE ) the crooked bastards COULD NOT keep their hands out of the money pot<br />
and have used it to buy votes ever since.<br />
In addition, the bastards who passed this abomination, FDR et al, KNEW ( like many politicians know today ) that they would be long gone ( out of office if not<br />
dead ) before &#8216;the bill came due&#8217;.</p>
<p>Today, the ignoramuses in this country ( of which we have an over abundance of ) who have gotten their &#8216;economic education&#8217; from television REALLY think that the gov&#8217;t has warehouses full of money ( trust fund etc. ) and it&#8217;s all freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !    </p>
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