I don’t have a tremendous amount of insight to offer (my lack of familiarity with the language was a significant barrier unfortunately), only this observation.

I visited my hostess’s grandfather’s house shortly after Chavez’s speech. The 80 year old man, who put three children through college including law and teaching degrees, had some things to say to my amiga. I hadn’t heard about the speech yet and didn’t understand what I was hearing on the radio (the speech followup), and my hostess didn’t translate her grandfather’s comments, but Chavez and communist dictator came up. All was confirmed when he finished up his comments with one phrase even this gringo understood: “Aye carumba…”

I hope it doesn’t get too bad before two years time. My friend is convinced she needs to stay and finish her degree at home before moving on for advanced degrees. I hope she makes it out.

One other note, just based on my webscanning while I had some time to kill while there: the day before Chavez’s speech, I read a couple of articles about an impending government bond sale. Other than “he just doesn’t care,” nothing comes to mind about why Chavez would be so reckless when his chance to grab some extra cash was obviously impending.

And second, when I arrived December 29th, Bolivares were trading at around 3000 for the USD$. After Chavez’s speech, USD$s were worth 4000 VEBs. Thanks, Hugo, but you shouldn’t have for me..!

Good to be back to the Samizdata..I really did think of you all while down there.

Another observation: Chavez’s face is on almost all of the tow trucks in the northern part of the country. The freakin’ tow trucks. (Government run, of course…“Bolivarian” government nonetheless.)

Pardon this comment if it’s a bit rambling. It is certainly time for me to catch up on some long-lost sleep.

… that the province of Alberta in Canada is the biggest of exporters of oil to the US and the Alberta oil sands’ reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia…

– An aside, if I may. Sadly, there’s oil and there’s oil, and one of the factors delaying Alberta’s Athabaska Tar Sands’ exploitation for decades, was that its oil isn’t as “oily” as it might be. Athabaskan oil is in tar form, in a sand deposit near the Earth’s surface (hence “tar sands”). After umpty-millennia close to the surface, all the lighter fractions have long since evaporated-off, and diesel is the lightest fraction commercially distillable from them – i.e., no gasoline. Lotsa bunker-c tho’…

It is an ancient conceit on the part of rulers that they can control everything, and make it all work out just fine, if only they have enough power over every aspect of economic life.

That this effort fails repeatedly, and inevitably, is explained away with the claim that they really didn’t have enough power, or there were hidden enemies sabatoging them behind the scenes, or, finally, the people just weren’t ready or good enough for their marvelous ideas to work.

One can trace these very strands through the bolshevik or maoist or fidelista regimes’ histories, as well as older, less ideological, autocratic states run by self-important fools who thought a decree from the throne could stop the operations of supply and demand, or cause and effect.

For, in the final analysis, the economy is nothing more or less than the sum total of the everyday lives of people, their struggles to survive, make a living, provide for their families, and maybe, just maybe, get ahead a little, put a few coins away for their old age and infirm years.

And so, time after time, some puffed up fool says, “I will run everything and all will be well.” And ordinary people, some supposedly wise, and many frightened and foolish, respond with relief and joy, that someone will finally take care of them, that they don’t have to worry and plan and work so hard, and lie awake sleepless because there isn’t enough money, or mama is sick, or the landlord is raising the rent.

But when all these hopes are eventually dashed, and all the promises are broken, when all the castles in the air come crashing down, it will not be their fault for following a fool, and it will not be his fault, for his intentions were good, it will be one more case of the evil machinations of the terrible capitalists, or devils of the CIA, or the jews, or maybe all of them working together in a great conspiracy to once more hold the struggling masses down and spoil their chance for paradise, for utopia, for heaven right here on earth.

Canute reportedly strode out into the sea and forbad the tide, and Chavez swaggers up to the podium and announces he’s cancelling the laws of economics.

Both are spitting into the wind. Comical, and terrible, all at the same time—a very bad movie I’ve already seen.

When the poet said hope springs eternal in the human breast, he must not have realized the same could be said for stupidity.

Firstly, I wanted to say that the middle-classes of this wonderful country are a talented and humourous lot. They know times are about to get a deal harder for them but they remain positive and the recent elections at least showed them they can organise together.

Secondly, the federal nature of the country’s local government may offer some succour to anti-chavistas. The presidential contender Manuel Rosales runs (or I shd say ran) Zulia state which incorporates oil-rich Maracaibo. He is overwhelmingly popular in this outpost from fetid Caracas and Chavez would have problems if he tried enacting his socialism or death lunacy there.

There are other positive things we can point to that mean we should not be too pessimistic for this country. This is not a Zimbabwe or Cuba or N. Korea. The middle classes are numerous, educated, ‘street-wise’ and creative. They have all spirited money and relatives out of the country already so they have emergency back up. Chavez has already embarassed himself on the global stage and his meddling in other South / Central American politics has backfired several times (note the UN security counsel palava). The corrupt cronies who are riding Chavez’ back will soon turn on him if he gets too ‘communistic’. They don’t want to be part of a new Cuba.

That’s not to say things are going to get a helluva lot worse than they are now. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. At least I think there is. I hope there is. Oh boy do I hope there is. It would be nice to see a smile on wifey’s face again….!

OK that’s my two pennies worth. Rock On Samizdata – keep up the good work.

Going back to Venezuela (the current topic) – a provocative question: would it not be good to have some Pinochet in Venezuela, to turn them back to prosperity ?
I mean: the majority collectively selected socialism and poverty, imposing it by force on all. A violent regime change would be contrary to the majority’s wishes, but would better protect the rights of everyone, especially those who oppose expropiations, but even of those who support looting. Does the majority have the right to oppress the individuals ?
A regime change would certainly favour all Venezuelans, even if many of them don’t know it, and don’t want it.

I am relieved to see that Chavez is also wrong about Jesus being a socialist. If Jesus really cared about humanity then it would be wrongheaded of him to advocate, for example, the theft of private property by the state as well as the impoverishment of an entire nation.

Socialist policies are so often described as more humane and caring. . .and “christian.”

I am sure it was just an oversight that you neglected to include a link to the passage in the New Testament where JC calls for violence backed appropriation of the wealth of others.

Romans 13 doesn’t directly call for violent appropriation. It does, however, seem to require submission or acquiescence. Interesting, in view of just how many movements in history have used Christianity as the foundation for opposition to extablished temporal power.

I’ve often wondered about from whose fourth point of contact Romans came. It seems to me remarkably fawning for a religion that had been violently suppressed for the last 2-3 centuries, on and off.

YADATROT: Part of the reason for the failure of Venezuela’s 1992 coups was that most of the military remained loyal to the democratically-elected government and the notion of democracy as a whole. I wonder how true this still is, in view of Chavez being in office for most of a decade. He’s been in a position to control promotions at the upper ranks for some time, but the middle of the officer ranks is where coups usually seem to originate.

“Jesus said to them, “I tell you the truth, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are entering the kingdom of God ahead of you.”.

But that is not a remark in praise of tax collecting and prostitution, it is a remark in favour of tax collectors and prostitutes who repent.

The passage is about how outwardly pious and socially accepted Jews would not go to heaven if they did not repent but socially reviled but repentant tax collectors and prostitutes would… which still does not indicate Jesus was a socialist.

24After Jesus and his disciples arrived in Capernaum, the collectors of the two-drachma tax came to Peter and asked, “Doesn’t your teacher pay the temple tax[b]?”
25″Yes, he does,” he replied.
When Peter came into the house, Jesus was the first to speak.
[this is where the quote comes in].

As you can see, the quote clearly does not refer to the Roman taxes (it’s not a “roman” temple, it’s *the* temple). It’s public choice economics. Obviously the King favours his family over others. ie. God favours his Chosen People over others and it is ridiculous to have him gouging them. It’s a wrongful tax. Still, it should be paid. The next passage is a miracle in which Peter is told to get a fish and the fish will have a coin to pay the tax with. In the same way, Caesar’s taxes were frequently abusive and wrongful. In the same way (as Paul notes) the actions of the masters of Christian slaves were frequently wrongful. As Christians, we’re still told to obey them.

You don’t have to be a socialist to pay taxes you disapprove of and obey laws you don’t like. Ayn Rand paid taxes (lots of them). For a few views of Christ’s beliefs regarding Roman taxes, check these:

“If you love those who love you, what reward will you get? Are not even the tax collectors doing that?”

“When the Pharisees saw this, they asked his disciples, “Why does your teacher eat with tax collectors and sinners?” 12On hearing this, Jesus said, “It is not the healthy who need a doctor, but the sick.”

“Jesus said to them, “I tell you the truth, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are entering the kingdom of God ahead of you.For John came to you to show you the way of righteousness, and you did not believe him, but the tax collectors and the prostitutes did. And even after you saw this, you did not repent and believe him.
“” As in all the good tax collector quotes, in case this is unclear, these are ex-tax collectors and ex-prostitutes. Christ wasn’t wanting to set up state run brothels.

“12Tax collectors also came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?” 13″Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them. 14Then some soldiers asked him, “And what should we do?” He replied, “Don’t extort money and don’t accuse people falsely—be content with your pay.”"

It should be recalled that the Christians who wrote the New Testament were suffering heavy persecution from the state at the point when they wrote it. We know that the chief authors were killed by the state by the cruellest way available. The atrocities committed by Herod were not admired by the evangelists and Apocalypse is pretty clear that the treaty, oops, I mean empire, of Rome (city of the seven hills) is the devil, what with its damnable CAP and whatnot.

State control and regulation of the economy was rampant and the only way to prosper for bussinessmen was to get government contracts. This was coupled with all the socialdemocratic rethoric about equality, brotherhood, solidarity and such crap.

The result was that venezuelans, both in the middle and lower classess were softened and didn’t know how to survive if the state didn’t provide.

After the inevitable economic collapse of such a system (predicted by Mises in 1920) the ussual cry for a strongman was inevitable, just as Hayek describes in his book. I remember my physics professors at the university giving their support for Chávez in 1998, “because he was the only one capable of effecting the necessary changes”.

Well, the man took over and since then he changed his “moderate-middle-of-the-road” approach and started to talk about revolution.

Certainly, Venezuelans will get what they deserve. I just hope that the first to face the approaching fire squads are the socialdemocrats and social-christians who paved the road and fertilized the fields on which Chávez is collecting.

In the meantime I have to try not to get sent back to that hellhole.