Comments on: Final pre-election drivel

By: cessair

cessair — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 00:32:05 +0000

Nathan Ritchey(Link), a Youngstown State University mathematician, calculated the 3.25 percent chance of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The odds have increased since late summer when chances for a tie were only 1.4 percent. "Looking at the 10 closest states, there are 17 ways this can occur -- 17 out of 1,024 possible outcomes," said Ritchey, who has been tracking statistics in this year's contest between Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

By: R C Dean

R C Dean — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:23:46 +0000

ALthough it might be fun to watch from overseas, any result that is within the “margin of lawyer” (in Mark Steyn’s delightful phrase) will be hugely damaging to American society.

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 14:11:33 +0000

Out of curiosity — what’s the source of the 3.25% stat, cess? In the runs I did, we were usually around 1.8% to 2.2%. I’m not the only person twisted enough to calculate the probability of an electoral vote tie?

By: cessair

cessair — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 11:09:48 +0000

If there was an electoral college tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would decide the Presidency. In all likelihood they would favour President Bush but this isn’t completely certain because the House is also being elected today.

But the Senate chooses the Vice President independently. So in theory we could end up with a Democrat Vice President and a Republican President. I forsee an assassination attempt if the political culture remains this charged.

The latest calculations predict a 3.25% chance of a tie, much higher than in previous elections.

Still highly unlikely but it would certainly make for an interesting four years.