Many sound folks are already rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the long sought UK referendum on adopting the terrifying EU constitution. The general received wisdom is that the anti-Constitution faction will win and that will be the end of Tony Blair’s political career… and certainly if it was held today it is hard to see any outcome other that a crushing victory for the anti-EU side and political ruin for Teflon Tony given that the latest YouGov poll (pdf file) shows only 16% would vote for the UK adopting the EU constitution, 28% were unsure and a whooping 53% would vote against it. Rule Britannia indeed!
But the promised referendum will not be today but rather at a tactical moment of Tony Blair’s choosing. People who see this ‘surrender’ to the idea of a referendum as a fortuitous laps of judgement of epic proportions would do well to ponder the effect that having notoriously Eurosceptic Britain go to the polls will have on the current negotiations with Britain more Federalist European ‘partners’ regarding the so called ‘red line’ issues of foreign policy, defence, social security and the British budget rebate.
Knowing that only if Blair can return home with ostensible triumph on those issues will he be able to credibly spin the EU constitution as a ‘British victory’, the Federalists will be faced with either the complete overthrow of their plans (Denmark or Ireland might be either ignored or finessed, but a British rejection is a rather different matter) or they can settle for a more gradualist victory for their cherished superstate.
Thus the prospects for Tony Blair arriving back and waving a piece of paper with Romano Prodi’s signature on it promising ‘Euro-peace in our time’ is by no means a fantastical scenario… and given the sheer ineptitude of the Tory party and the lemming-like Europhilia of the LibDems, it would be a brave man who predicts with confidence that this would not pull the Euro-sceptic’s political teeth.
Yes, with a little luck it could, and hopefully will, all go horribly wrong for the UK government and we could see the dismal Conservative party back in the saddle in Westminster in the aftermath of a Euro-Political meltdown of not insignificant proportions. However the prospects of Blair indeed getting Britain to sign up to a first iteration of the EU constitution if the Federalists play ball is by no means beyond possibilities. And if that happens, it means it is only a matter of time before the other issues are gradually chipped away in the years to follow. At that point there will be nothing left to fight for and I for in will be in the market for some property in New Hampshire. Do not underestimate Tony Blair.
Yes; and it appears that the way he’s chosen his timing–after the next election, after parliamentary approval of the Constitution–gives him the capacity to play it every which way.
The EU Con can be eliminated as an election issue: “We’re going to have a referendum on that.” More, he can present it as a generous decision to trust the people.
Post hoc New Labour can claim a mandate for its general pro-EU stand, and that the nasty Euroscepticism of the Tories has been rejected by the voters.
He can also then point to parliament’s approval of the Con and his “victories” in renegotiating minor bits of it as showing there is nothing to fear, and that voters are now engaged in a plebicitic “tidying-up exercise”, just ratifying the treaty which Swizz Tony has won for us. Dein Ja, dem Fuehrer!
Do you seriously expect the British voters to change their opinion rather rapidly, and base that only on Mr Blair skillful spinning? That would be very unfortunate. I have much more faith in the decency and common sense of your folks.
Here in Czechia, though, all the government has to do is to declare the Constitution a matter of national survival. The sheep will vote Yea in no time.
The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, even in the matter of sheepishness.
Part of Blair’s strategy is surely that polls show of those who have an opinion a large majority will not buy the Con, but of the people as a whole a large majority do not have any particular opinion, and getting on for half haven’t yet heard of the EU Constitution. I believe he thinks he has a good chance of writing his own script into the the blank space, and I fear he is right.
Is it a safe assumption that Blair wishes the constitution to succeed? My guess is that he doesn’t, but equally, he doesn’t want to be seen as anti-European. What better way to sink Valery Giscard d’Estaing ‘s dread document than for to put it to a referendum he surely knows will fail. He can maintain the facade of europhilia to his European partners but say that regrettably he can’t go against the express will of the British people, “bastards” though they may be.
My feeling is that the Irish referendum will be defeated, there is a significant anti-EU feeling composed across the spectrum here from loonie lefties to conservatives which is acknowledged by few political parties. The stated purpose of the last treaty which barely passed, was to facilitate enlargement. It could reasonably have been presented as necessary. This one can’t.
I think it’s simpler than all that.
I think Teflon Tony intends to hand (the hated) Gordon an empty vessel OR come out of this as the obvious choice for first President of the United States of Europe and doesn’t particularly care which so long as the talk-fest related to the election takes the heat off his problems with Iraq/Bush. Tony has unbounded confidence in his ability to persuade.
But one thing Tony knows for sure is that, no matter how popular a PM is at the beginning, each one has a “sell by” date. He wants to extend his or control the ritual “seppu ku” that acknowledges its inevitability.
Frank McGahon wrote:
I thought EU referenda were never defeated in Ireland. The Government just keeps sending the same exact referendum back to the voters for revotes ad nauseam until the Irish people vote the way the pols (and the EUrocrats) want. 🙂
One question,
Why New Hampshire?
Ted,
You are quite correct, although the margins have been pretty small. If this one is soundly defeated and a similar vote obtains in the UK, the constitution will probably be dead in the water anyway. Here’s hoping!
Fausta,
It’s the beguiling state motto. That and the greenness of the grass.
Rather pick UK any day then New Hampshire. Wait till you spend a winter in NH…If hell frooze over, this is how it would look like.
Thanks Guy — you’re a man after my libertarian heart! “Live Free Or Die” indeed. Here in New Jersey we have “Liberty And Prosperity” but the taxes are approaching EU levels. Nicer weather than New Hampshire, though.
I strongly recommend Arizona or Texas.
I love the cube – and the frogs also want to vote (DF excepted as always).
Tony Blair is not the brightest light in the harbour. But he is slithery. Peter Mandelson charts the slithery maze. We’ll see. My guess: Michael Howard will best Blair at every turning from now on. He’s a far more intelligent man and he is principled.
And how can Blair fight a Jewish immigrant grammar school boy who rose to be leader of the Opposition without sounding bitter and mean-spirited and betraying his baseless multiculti “principles”?
My reading: Blair is undone.
Blair has already been pushed into offering a referendum. Now, no matter how he tries to fake it or dilute it, people are expecting a referendum – thanks to the Tories.
He has already, and this is early days – had more teeth pulled, having admitted that he wouldn’t accept the electorate’s decision as final but would “go back to Europe” to see how they could work a way round it – or, in TonyTalk -“Find a way forward”. This is exactly what people fear – the Irish and Danish experience.
And he has admitted that he would force this on Britain if they rejected his recommendation. (Newsflash: 59m people are wrong! Only Tony Blair marches in step!)
Two major victories for Howard in as many days.
I hope they’re taking heart from this, because they’re our best hope out of the current Marxist rotting stew. I know Perry doesn’t like such comments, but let’s get the embedded Marxists/Gramscians/commies out, then we can talk …
The Tories under Howard are looking better and better every day. I do hope Howard has found a way around their weakness over Europe.
Heseltine has already spoken out over the referendum, don’t expect him to keep quiet one little bit. Blair wants the referendum as late as possible because he knows that Europe is the one issue the Tories will happily rip themselves apart over.
The bit that really jumped out of Blair’s announcement was when he said (IIRC) “but we all know the implications will be far wider”. Wouldn’t be surprised if, given a Yes vote, the Euro referendum is bounced off the back of it.
Well, I am going to underestimate Tone. I don’t think he’s got a cat in hell’s chance of winning. I don’t think this issue is materially any different from the Euro debate. The Euro debate is over mainly because the government knew perfectly well that it could never win a referendum. The same applies to this one.
Two theories. One – Tone is seriously deluded. Two – this is his get out of Europe card. He loses the referendum, we leave the EU and why should be care?
Patrick Crozier – I do agree with you in the sense that it is almost impossible to underestimate Tony Blair’s intelligence or principles.
OTOH, you ask, “why should he care?” if he loses. I trust that you alone, among the non-socialist electorate, have not failed to notice that Blair is expecting, as his reward for delivering 59m freeborn Brits into the maw of Brussels, to be made president of the EU.
Unelected, of course. Well, elected, but not by actual electorates; just national leaders. If you connect the dots, you might jump to the conclusion that this is why Blair is so eager to do favours to the heads of government of the new members, like, oh, the prime minister of Latvia (?), whose one-legged roof tiler and tens of thousands like him were given fast-track, no background check immigration privileges into Britain.
As I have said before, I don’t care what Jacques and Gerhardt have offered Blair on a raised eyebrow, touch-the-side-of-the-nose basis. My instinct tells me that this spot is already promised, iron clad, to one Dominique de Villepin, who would make the perfect president of a vapid, pretentious, pointless mass of delusional imiportance.
That – I’m taking bets – is who has been given the Gallic wink and the Teutonic nod for first “president” of Europe.
But Blair, awash in his own glory, hasn’t twigged this yet, which is why he cares so much that he has already, stupidly, tipped his hand that he won’t accept a No decision and will bludgeon the electorate to try again.
Anyway, it’s a moot point, because he is not going to win the referendum.
If the European Constitution is signed and the redlines turn green, then there is everything left to fight for, since there is nothing left to give up.
I would suggest the Outer Hebrides and the Scottish highlands – natural terrain for a resistance.
Melanie Phillips says the government is in complete disarray and Tony Blair’s making up policy on the run. Consider: for a year he has said no referendum and was unmoved by arguments for sovereignty, birthright or democracy.
Then, according to the lead story in this week’s Speccie, Rupert Murdoch told him to have a referendum. So Blair trailed a referendum and then announced it on the radio before having discussed it in Cabinet. A day later, Michael Howard forced him to admit that if the vote were negative, he would do the Irish/Danish trick and make them vote again – or, in Tony Talk, he’d go back to Europe and discuss the electorate’s decision in order to “find a way forward”. In other words, fudge the question and ask it again.
The next day (yesterday) he says no, that’s not what he meant. He wouldn’t keep holding referenda until the populace was thrashed into exhaustion. But at the same time seemed to be holding a saving clause in reserve.
Meanwhile, Jack Straw goes on The Today Programme this morning and says well, if the result was a No vote, Blair and the other Marx Bros in the Cabinet would decide whether the electorate had voted against the “constitution” in principle or whether perhaps they had just objected to a clause or two. If Harpo and Gummo thought it was just a clause or two that had stuck in the electorate’s craw, they would go back to Europe and try to change those clauses and then hold another referendum.
Does anyone besides me get the idea that Tony Blair is not only washed up, but knows he’s washed up and that is why he is crumbling before our very eyes?
BTW, how humiliating to be dumped by a pornographer! And, according to his five minute tirade about the Germans, a mad pornographer at that. I would say it doesn’t get any worse, but I am secretly hoping it will.
In Praise of Anthony Blair
1. Regeneration
In the brave new world of Anthony Blair
There is always a new success:
An initiative here, an initiative there
Eye-watering initiatives everywhere
And all from Anthony Lyndon Blair
And we really should be impressed.
In the brave new world of Anthony Blair
The dead are on Anthony’s side –
His soft praying hands and his soft little choke
For the People’s Princess and the People’s Pope,
The People’s Queen Mum and the People’s soft soap –
They’re all brought along for the ride.
2. Peace in Ireland
In Ireland Anthony’s put things right
And soothed all history’s sores
With the soft-voiced man with the Armelite
And the ballot box and the gelignite
And the cold-water bath that gives traitors frights
Whom Anthony just adores.
And although Ulster’s terrorists break kid’s bones
Tony goes from success to success.
He’s placated the Yanks and he’s massaged the stats,
He’s put out the crimson welcome mats
And he’s going to subsidise baseball bats
In the name of the peace process.
3. New Britain
He’s taken this land of Satanic mills
And abolished child poverty from it.
Now all the kids enjoy good school meals
And the kids go to clubs and kick up their heels
Then go out the back and enjoy a few feels
And the streets are awash with vomit.
He’s tough on crime and the causes of crime
Laying down all the social norms,
And hires more police officers all the time
To boost the strength of the thin blue line –
No, they’re not on the streets, but that’s just fine,
They’re hard at work, filling in forms.
Every one of us knows we are Anthony’s debtors.
He came in with public acclaim,
The golden-haired public schoolboy from Fettes
Whose anthem was Things Can Only Get Better –
Though I felt at the time a more probable bet was
The Who’s Don’t Get Fooled Again.
There are those who say that he’s lost the knack
Of achieving a perfect con.
But Anthony says “Let’s go forward not back
With great hospitals, schools and railway track
And I wish you’d stop talking about Iraq –
It really is time to move on.”
4. Economic success
In the brave new world of Anthony Blair
The money don’t go very far –
Not ordinary money, people’s money,
The money that Cherie would think quite funny
If you offered her that for her work at the bar.
But Britain is vibrant and youthful and gay
He’s told us, voice ringing with truth.
It’s reborn and new in a New Labour way
Behold and be glad at the dawning of day –
You old fools don’t need pensions at all anyway
When Tony has blessed you with youth!
5. The War on Terror
In the war to win points from the terrorist threat
Tony Blair is ahead by a mile
How can we stop an eleven September?
(Sorry, says Blunkett, I can’t remember)
Well we’ve got to look tough, so lets simply dismember
Little things like a right to a trial.
And Tony has words to raise up our hearts,
Says we’ve nothing to fear but fear.
The sands of the desert are running red,
The weapons are missing, the scientist’s dead,
But Anthony Blair proudly holds up his head
And says he’s officially cleared.
6. The International Statesman
Tony, we all admire how brave you are,
You give evil regimes the push.
You’re truly an international saviour,
Telling tyrant’s “Well gosh you must mind your behaviour
Or you’ll get what I gave to Yugoslavia
If I get permission from Bush.”
Now Anthony’s off on a grand new mission
To save all of Africa
Doing to it what he’s done to Britain
With splendid committees for him to sit on
With a few pop stars and some politicians
Dining on pate foie gras.
And Tony deserves an explanation
Why he’s not got a Nobel prize
For he’s talked and he’s talked about education
And talked about Africa’s regeneration
And he’s bombed the peace into several nations –
What more can I do, he cries.
7. Whiter than White
Now Anthony Blair is a straight kind of guy –
We know ‘cos he told us he’s so,
And Anthony Blair’s never told us a lie
About Eccleston’s million or cash for the dome
Or Mandleson’s quite understandable loan
Or wee Leo’s jabs, not a lie, not a lie,
Oh certainly, certainly no.
After eight years he’s ready to set about
What he’s always longed to begin:
Putting dictators all to rout,
Driving crime, disease and poverty out,
And most important, without a doubt,
Just saving Anthony’s skin.
The activists all love Anthony Blair
And they’re working like Santa’s elves.
If the people can’t be bothered to vote
(A thing that can really get Anthony’s goat)
They’ll gather the ballots like hunting stoats
And fill all of them in themselves.
And Anthony Blair is quick to correct
Any problems that need correction.
“Don’t worry about all the voting fraud,
I’ll just change the law I rammed through before
And stamp it out, you can rest assured,
Trust me, after the next election.”
8. His loyal servants
We got Robin Cook from Anthony Blair
Who cut through the moral maze,
Bringing FO ethics in place of strife
And exhorting us all to a higher life –
The red-haired drunkard who dumped his wife
As they set off on holiday.
We got Blunkett too from Anthony Blair
Who filled his posts so grandly.
He did no good but he cursed right fine,
And was truly original when he resigned –
The first one ever – to spend more time
With somebody else’s family.
Gordon Brown has been Anthony’s loyal henchman
From Granita through to Iraq,
Spraying data with Dalek-like speed and tension –
No please don’t complain that he’s buggered your pensions,
He did it all with the best of intentions,
And he’s not going to give them back.
The political Einstein is Stephen Byers
(Don’t call him a useless berk)
Who with infinite skill pulled infinite wires
To pull Rover’s workforce out of the fires
And hand them to men some call thieves and liars,
And now they’re all out of work.
9. He Bestrides the Globe
All Anthony’s acts are so energising –
Like reforming the House of Lords,
Hereditaries out, and a new sun rising
Because Tony believes in democratising,
A whole new crop of jolly good guys in –
And all appointed by Anthony’s frauds.
Anthony Blair is devoted to God
Who he’s certain has made him Prime Minister,
But can’t you imagine, if you were God,
You might fear Tony thought you distinctly unmod-
Ern, and find the looks he was giving You odd –
And even a little bit sinister.
Anthony Blair is so very sincere,
Whether he’s happy or sad,
One minute he’s grinning from ear to ear,
The next he’s wiping away a tear,
Then a look in his eye makes it suddenly clear
That he’s ever so slightly mad.
He’s going to stay for just one more term –
You may think that decidedly odd,
With the fate of the nation and world at stake
And his role in history still to fake,
But he’s thought it through and decided to take
Up a new position as God.