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	<title>Comments on: 535 AD</title>
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	<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/</link>
	<description>A blog for people with a critically rational individualist perspective</description>
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		<title>By: Jim West</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5323</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim West</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Dec 2002 04:50:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5323</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I got to see the same TV doco in Australia (only last year) and found it interesting, but one part of  a criticism you quote above that. &quot;..Keys has a disturbing tendency to use words like &quot;undoubtedly&quot; and &quot;certainly&quot; when describing the ancient world...&quot; definitely bugged me too. I don&#039;t even trust our modern broadsheet newspapers (in Australia) to give as a better that 30% correspondence with objective truth!

I can&#039;t come down on one side or other (and frankly wouldn&#039;t bother trying) of whether there is sufficient &quot;historical&quot; evidence in the form of written texts etc. to support the 535AD catastrophe theory. Furthermore, having a background in geology I believe that any geo. worth his salt wouldn&#039;t actually waste their time at this point actually looking for the specific volcano that caused the alleged catastrophe (This part of the doco for me thus seemed a pretty pointless wild goose chase in that even if you find the volcano it doesn&#8217;t prove much vis a vis catastrophes). 

The way to answer the question about whether the worlds civilisations where placed under extraordinary stress lies in two fairly prosaic avenues of enquiry, both pursued but to an insufficient extent, in the doco.

The first one is collection of  further tree ring data from around the world (or maybe just further analysis of existing data) and assessing the growth conditions for 535, 536, 537AD in comparison to the average. If you find markedly and generally  adverse growing conditions for trees around the world (or at least in the areas for which the &#8220;civilizations under stress&#8221; theory is being put forward),  it can be assumed that the crops on which these civilizations are dependant would also be, on average, strongly adversely affected. Put simply, by what mechanism would all the oaks and pines be having an exceptionally bad time, but the barley, corn, and wheat thriving?

To link the inferred crop stress fairly conclusively to the effects of an extraordinarily large volcanic eruption is then simply a matter of analysing bog, lacustrine, and other sedimentary deposits for extreme (averaged over all areas of concern) input of volcanic ash, backed up by analysis of glacial and ice sheet core data on atmospheric composition for the period. 

If you establish both physical conditions, basically anything that may be written in historical texts is a nice bonus to the theory, especially as far as the &#8220;human interest&#8221; angle goes, but pretty superfluous to knowing if there really was a catastrophe for civilization in general in 535AD. Firmly establishing both physical conditions (which is simply a matter of putting in sufficient effort) would also establish that there must have been.
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I got to see the same TV doco in Australia (only last year) and found it interesting, but one part of  a criticism you quote above that. &#8220;..Keys has a disturbing tendency to use words like &#8220;undoubtedly&#8221; and &#8220;certainly&#8221; when describing the ancient world&#8230;&#8221; definitely bugged me too. I don&#8217;t even trust our modern broadsheet newspapers (in Australia) to give as a better that 30% correspondence with objective truth!</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t come down on one side or other (and frankly wouldn&#8217;t bother trying) of whether there is sufficient &#8220;historical&#8221; evidence in the form of written texts etc. to support the 535AD catastrophe theory. Furthermore, having a background in geology I believe that any geo. worth his salt wouldn&#8217;t actually waste their time at this point actually looking for the specific volcano that caused the alleged catastrophe (This part of the doco for me thus seemed a pretty pointless wild goose chase in that even if you find the volcano it doesn&rsquo;t prove much vis a vis catastrophes). </p>
<p>The way to answer the question about whether the worlds civilisations where placed under extraordinary stress lies in two fairly prosaic avenues of enquiry, both pursued but to an insufficient extent, in the doco.</p>
<p>The first one is collection of  further tree ring data from around the world (or maybe just further analysis of existing data) and assessing the growth conditions for 535, 536, 537AD in comparison to the average. If you find markedly and generally  adverse growing conditions for trees around the world (or at least in the areas for which the &ldquo;civilizations under stress&rdquo; theory is being put forward),  it can be assumed that the crops on which these civilizations are dependant would also be, on average, strongly adversely affected. Put simply, by what mechanism would all the oaks and pines be having an exceptionally bad time, but the barley, corn, and wheat thriving?</p>
<p>To link the inferred crop stress fairly conclusively to the effects of an extraordinarily large volcanic eruption is then simply a matter of analysing bog, lacustrine, and other sedimentary deposits for extreme (averaged over all areas of concern) input of volcanic ash, backed up by analysis of glacial and ice sheet core data on atmospheric composition for the period. </p>
<p>If you establish both physical conditions, basically anything that may be written in historical texts is a nice bonus to the theory, especially as far as the &ldquo;human interest&rdquo; angle goes, but pretty superfluous to knowing if there really was a catastrophe for civilization in general in 535AD. Firmly establishing both physical conditions (which is simply a matter of putting in sufficient effort) would also establish that there must have been.</p>
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		<title>By: Aaron Armitage</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5322</link>
		<dc:creator>Aaron Armitage</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 22:45:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s a question that came to me: suppose we found out tomorrow we have 50 years before Yellowstone erupts. What do we do, other than get right with God?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a question that came to me: suppose we found out tomorrow we have 50 years before Yellowstone erupts. What do we do, other than get right with God?</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Marks</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5321</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 17:10:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5321</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It was not a &quot;supervolcano&quot; eruption - but there was a very big volcanic eruption at this time.

Yes it did cause lots of climatic and other problems (including, indirectly, the great sickness that hit Justinian East Roman Empire - and the people who traded with it, such as the Romano British in what is now Western England).
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was not a &#8220;supervolcano&#8221; eruption &#8211; but there was a very big volcanic eruption at this time.</p>
<p>Yes it did cause lots of climatic and other problems (including, indirectly, the great sickness that hit Justinian East Roman Empire &#8211; and the people who traded with it, such as the Romano British in what is now Western England).</p>
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		<title>By: Philip Chaston</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5320</link>
		<dc:creator>Philip Chaston</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 11:00:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5320</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the history of Britain, there are too few written sources to come to any conclusion about the condition of Britain in the first half of the sixth century. Gildas, the main source of this era, would just about say anything you wanted him to and the kingdoms he writes about were still as extant in 550 as they were in 540.  

I don&#039;t recall anything about this in Bede.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the history of Britain, there are too few written sources to come to any conclusion about the condition of Britain in the first half of the sixth century. Gildas, the main source of this era, would just about say anything you wanted him to and the kingdoms he writes about were still as extant in 550 as they were in 540.  </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t recall anything about this in Bede.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Connors</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5319</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Connors</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 04:15:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5319</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m with qsi. Keys seems to be giving supervolcano-like moment to the aftermath of a fairly routine eruption]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m with qsi. Keys seems to be giving supervolcano-like moment to the aftermath of a fairly routine eruption</p>
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		<title>By: Aaron Armitage</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5318</link>
		<dc:creator>Aaron Armitage</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 03:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5318</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t think a volcano was really necessary, considering everything else that happened around that time. The Goths stood in relation to the Roman civilization as the early Romans did to the Greek; they were barbarous hicks, but they &lt;i&gt;knew&lt;/i&gt; it and were trying to fix the situation. They could have continued classical civilization if the Empire hadn&#039;t decided, &quot;Hey, we&#039;re the Roman Empire. We should rule Italy.&quot; By the time the war was over there was nothing in Italy but ruins and the cultured elite were almost all dead. The war also opened up the way for the first outbreak of Bubonic Plague in the west, which &lt;i&gt;did&lt;/i&gt; weaken the Eastern Empire. In fact, that was around the time they shifted from Eastern Roman to Byzantine.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think a volcano was really necessary, considering everything else that happened around that time. The Goths stood in relation to the Roman civilization as the early Romans did to the Greek; they were barbarous hicks, but they <i>knew</i> it and were trying to fix the situation. They could have continued classical civilization if the Empire hadn&#8217;t decided, &#8220;Hey, we&#8217;re the Roman Empire. We should rule Italy.&#8221; By the time the war was over there was nothing in Italy but ruins and the cultured elite were almost all dead. The war also opened up the way for the first outbreak of Bubonic Plague in the west, which <i>did</i> weaken the Eastern Empire. In fact, that was around the time they shifted from Eastern Roman to Byzantine.</p>
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		<title>By: qsi</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5317</link>
		<dc:creator>qsi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 03:09:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5317</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dale is referring to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;supervolcanoes&lt;/a&gt;, one of which could go off Any Day Now with pretty horrendous consequences.

I am nowhere near a volcanologist, but some googling (the advantages of being an insomniac) pointed me to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.volcanoworld.org/vwdocs/vw_hyperexchange/veiTables/melanesia_australia.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this list of eruptions&lt;/a&gt; in that part of the world. It does list an eruption in 540, but makes no specific claims about it. Elsewhere &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.extremescience.com/BiggestVolcano.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the Taupo eruption&lt;/a&gt; is described as the world&#039;s biggest in recorded history. On the basis of this cursory tour of the web, I am skeptical that the 535 eruption was indeed as big as the book makes out, and even more skeptical that it was the transformational event that gave birth to the modern world.
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dale is referring to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml" rel="nofollow">supervolcanoes</a>, one of which could go off Any Day Now with pretty horrendous consequences.</p>
<p>I am nowhere near a volcanologist, but some googling (the advantages of being an insomniac) pointed me to <a href="http://www.volcanoworld.org/vwdocs/vw_hyperexchange/veiTables/melanesia_australia.html" rel="nofollow">this list of eruptions</a> in that part of the world. It does list an eruption in 540, but makes no specific claims about it. Elsewhere <a href="http://www.extremescience.com/BiggestVolcano.htm" rel="nofollow">the Taupo eruption</a> is described as the world&#8217;s biggest in recorded history. On the basis of this cursory tour of the web, I am skeptical that the 535 eruption was indeed as big as the book makes out, and even more skeptical that it was the transformational event that gave birth to the modern world.</p>
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		<title>By: Dale Amon</title>
		<link>http://www.samizdata.net/2002/12/535-ad/#comment-5316</link>
		<dc:creator>Dale Amon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Dec 2002 00:02:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://192.168.200.139/?p=2719#comment-5316</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A bit of quick googling plus a healthy dose of &quot;things remembered&quot; leads me to wonder if it is a bit over the top. I only come up with one reference to a major volcanic eruption, supposedly an earlier and larger Krakatoa explosion. My BS detectors got fired off by the text for the PBS show though because it talked about the largest known volcanic explosion, that of Krakatoa in the late 1883... which although absolutley huge, was barely a candle to the unmentioned Tambora explosion of 1815 that may have caused the 1816 &quot;year without a summer.

Historically there was also the explosion of Santorini in 1640BC which almost certainly damaged everyone in the vicinity and may have had a lot to do with the end of the Mycenean civilization.

There are potentially far bigger ones in our future. There are at least two areas in the Western US which could go off in the next few centuries that would make even the aforementioned look like firecrackers. You see, Yellowstone isn&#039;t a volcanic region... it &lt;b&gt;is&lt;/b&gt; the volcano. Likewise there is a similar and a bit smaller region (if I remember correctly) in the California Mono Lake region.

When Yellowstone next goes up, we get a large part of the US west under a few hundred feet of (or more) of ash and lava. 

It&#039;s happened before, just not in recorded history.

So I&#039;d say the thesis is valid in the sense that big volcanoes could do considerable damage to human civilizations, but the evidence is a bit thin for anything quite large enough to do in the world in 535AD.

I&#039;d also be interested in hearing more, particularly form a Vulcanologist who might know exactly how big the 535AD blow up was... and if it is actually dated any where close to that date.

]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A bit of quick googling plus a healthy dose of &#8220;things remembered&#8221; leads me to wonder if it is a bit over the top. I only come up with one reference to a major volcanic eruption, supposedly an earlier and larger Krakatoa explosion. My BS detectors got fired off by the text for the PBS show though because it talked about the largest known volcanic explosion, that of Krakatoa in the late 1883&#8230; which although absolutley huge, was barely a candle to the unmentioned Tambora explosion of 1815 that may have caused the 1816 &#8220;year without a summer.</p>
<p>Historically there was also the explosion of Santorini in 1640BC which almost certainly damaged everyone in the vicinity and may have had a lot to do with the end of the Mycenean civilization.</p>
<p>There are potentially far bigger ones in our future. There are at least two areas in the Western US which could go off in the next few centuries that would make even the aforementioned look like firecrackers. You see, Yellowstone isn&#8217;t a volcanic region&#8230; it <b>is</b> the volcano. Likewise there is a similar and a bit smaller region (if I remember correctly) in the California Mono Lake region.</p>
<p>When Yellowstone next goes up, we get a large part of the US west under a few hundred feet of (or more) of ash and lava. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s happened before, just not in recorded history.</p>
<p>So I&#8217;d say the thesis is valid in the sense that big volcanoes could do considerable damage to human civilizations, but the evidence is a bit thin for anything quite large enough to do in the world in 535AD.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d also be interested in hearing more, particularly form a Vulcanologist who might know exactly how big the 535AD blow up was&#8230; and if it is actually dated any where close to that date.</p>
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